Potential deadline movers, and the assets they could fetch

Looking forward to the 2021-22 season, the foregone conclusion is that the Red Wings will again be a bottom-10 team. While many of us eagerly await the upcoming year, if only to see if the team's prized prospects can take that 'next step,' I will take a look forward to the trade deadline and what the team may be able to fetch for their handful of trade candidates.

The Red Wings already used one of their three salary retention spots on Richard Panik, so that will certainly complicate things at the trade deadline for the next two seasons, as Panik's deal had two years remaining. Due to the continued flat-cap this season, any trade involving a cap hit over $2mm may require retaining cap hit, or taking a bad contract back, so it will make things challenging for Stevie, as just about anybody being moved will fit this bill.

Nick Leddy - while many of us were skeptical of Yzerman to give up a second rounder for Leddy, here is the reason he did. It's entirely possible that the Wings could end up fetching a first round pick for him at the trade deadline. Columbus was able to get a first rounder each for David Savard and Nick Foligno, plus a third and fourth, respctively. Leddy would fall into the same area value-wise as those two, and depending on the season he has, could return close to the same. He may not come with the additional mid-round pick, but a first rounder wouldn't be out of the question. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy (he has done so throughout his career) and be productive, but the value the team could fetch is where spending the second rounder to acquire him made some sense, albeit with a bit of risk. Cap hit would have to be retained in any deal, and an intermediary club would likely need to be found to absorb 25% of his cap hit as well, just as in the Savard and Foligno deals last year.

However, if the team likes the chemistry, leadership, and fit, they could try to extend him. Realistically, it will be difficult for the team to acquire a similar player on the free agent market until the club really improves, so this may not be a bad way to go. Fewer assets for the future, but the mentorship of a more offensive player could be good for Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom, Edvinsson, and others in the next few years.

Robby Fabbri - The biggest struggle with Fabbri, once again, will be staying healthy. In his NHL career, he has yet to play in a full season, and the injury struggles are well documented. When healthy, he shows the ability to be a 25-25-50 guy. Coming off injuries, he clearly loses momentum, but when he's up to speed, he scores at better than a 0.5 point per game clip. There are some defensive deficiencies to his game, but for a contender looking to get some depth scoring in the top-9, he would be an attractive option. Like Leddy, some cap hit would have to be retained, but if he stays healthy, there's no reason he couldn't fetch a second rounder, if even in the 2023 draft (sooner would obviously be more valuable).

Like Leddy, if the Red Wings feel Robby is part of the future plans, they could still try to resign him. Regardless, all of this hinges on his ability to stay healthy.

Troy Stecher - With an influx of right-shooting defensemen about to inundate the Red Wings roster, it is safe to say this is probably Troy's last season in Detroit. He was one of the teams best players in terms of advanced statistics last season, but with so many promising young players (Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom), he simply doesn't seem to have a spot. There isn't much offense to his game, despite some dazzling plays in the world championships. He just makes the plays, and for a contender, that could be valuable.

His $1.7mm cap hit doesn't make a move prohibitive, but at that price, many contenders will likely be able to find a better player through a trade, even if that player is more expensive. At that time of the year, it comes down to the best deal a team can make with its cap space. So cap hit may need to be retained, or another partner found to make it work. At that point, retention spots may be better spent elsewhere.

Thomas Greiss - A trade involving Greiss would mean a few things. First, he picked up right where he left off last season. Even in a platoon situation, his numbers would rank high among the leagues top netminders. Second, he is not likely to be re-signed at seasons end. Third, and most importantly, Alex Nedeljkovic has shown he is the goalie it was believed he could be when he finished as a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, prompting a trade to the Red Wings and a two year, $6mm contract.

Greiss likely wouldn't command a big return unless he is carrying more of the weight, which would beg the question of why he's being traded in the first place. David Rittich snagged Calgary a third round pick last year, after a few seasons of reliable work. Using that as the comparison, Greiss may be able to fetch a second rounder, but cap hit would have to be retained somewhere.

Marc Staal - While he has a full no-move clause, I imagine he would waive it for a small handful of clubs with a legitimate shot at the cup. One of those would likely be Carolina, where his brother Jordan plays. Staal may not bring much back, and he falls into the same category as Leddy, where his leadership and mentorship may be valued more than what they bring back, with the rebuild headed into overdrive and another half-dozen defensive prospects waiting on the doorstep. He could probably bring a fourth or fifth rounder back with him, and the Wings would likely take whatever contract back that would open a roster spot for him. Modest cap hit at $2mm, but would still be tough without retention, and those two spots would beg for a better use.

Vladislav Namestnikov - We didn't see much offensively from Vlad in his first season in Detroit, but the ability to chip in a few goals is certainly there. What he did do was flex his defensive prowess, and at trade deadline time, there are bound to be teams looking to flex theirs, too. Unless we see a spike in his offensive output, he probably wouldn't bring back much, but a fourth or fifth rounder wouldn't be unreasonable. Like Stecher and Staal, his cap hit may make a trade difficult, a salary retention is likely better used elsewhere.

Sam Gagner - Gagner provided a veteran presence, and showed he could be a valuable depth forward. Despite his being a former top-10 pick, he was never able to stick at the top of a lineup. The offensive ability to obvious, but he just can't keep up with the pace these days. His ability to play reliable two way hockey as a fourth line center may make him a candidate, too. Not likely to bring back more than a fifth-sixth rounder, but a pick is a pick at this point.

Adam Erne - Erne showed exactly why Yzerman gave up a fourth round pick to bring him to Detroit upon his arrival. His 11 goals last season projects to 20 over a whole season. If he can continue what he did last season, he will certainly have some value going forward, and could likely bring back a second rounder. However, with one season left on his contract, he would probably need to bring back more than that for a trade to occur.

Tyler Bertuzzi - He is the type of player all teams want in the playoffs, and he could be on the tail-end of his prime by the time the Red Wings win a playoff series again. The rumors are swirling, but Yzerman knows he has an asset here. If the injury issues are behind him, Stevie would be wise hold out for a center prospect here. While Bertuzzi could likely command the kind of return that Mantha fetched, perhaps a bit less, he will still bring back a haul. That's where it become imperative for Yzerman and Co. to compensate for their lack of a lottery pick that would land them the sort of top center that has eluded them through this rebuild. Only a handful of teams have that sort of prospect, and not many of them are playoff teams.

If Yzerman is wise to only trade Bertuzzi (if at all) for the type of futures that have eluded them thus far (centers, centers, centers), a trade likely doesn't happen in season. At least this season.

All in all, if this past season is any indication, we may only see a few bodies moved. In all likelihood, we won't see another Anthony Mantha sized surprise, but seeing bodies moved for a second, third, or fourth round pick isn't out of the question. It is possible that a move is made to add another first rounder, but that would depend on the direction the team takes this year. The bigger the step forward, the lower that chance. A step backward, may increase the odds of trades, but that could impact the value the assets have in the first place.

I think Nick Leddy will bring a lot of value to the team, and they will try and hold onto him. I would suspect the team adds three picks at the deadline at this point, and none likely above the second round. If they end up not using their salary retention slots, which is probably unlikely, they may offer them to other teams as they did last year in the David Savard trade.

Projecting the Red Wings 2021-22 Season

Thinking ahead to the start of the season, I thought I'd put down some ideas on how the possible outcomes could affect the rebuild...

Season outcome possibilities:

Good: Breakouts from a handful of key players, team finishes just below the playoff bubble.

• The likes of Suter, Seider, Vrana, and Zadina all take serious strides and establish themselves as impact players.
• Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all stay healthy, playing in 95% of team games.
• A couple other nice "surprises" happen. Mitchell Stephens has some untapped potential, and Jonatan Berggren, Lucas Raymond, and Joe Veleno could all see extended looks at the NHL level.
• Nedeljkovic repeats his "rookie year" success, and is a Calder candidate for second season.
• A couple of expiring contracts could be moved at the deadline. Most likely candidates would be Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher. I think the club would be interested in trying to hang onto Leddy if there is a fit, as I don't think you'd trade a second rounder for an expiring contract when you're rebuilding. If there is a trade to be made to bring a center into the mix, I think it could happen.

Bad: Continued regression from existing players, multiple injuries derail season, team slips into the bottom three.

• Suter struggles to score without elite linemates. Seider struggles at the NHL level. Vrana loses scoring touch he showed after trade. Zadina never finds scoring touch.
• Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all miss significant time.
• Nedeljkovic and Greiss both struggle.
• Fire sale. A number of Leddy, Stecher, Namestnikov, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Fabbri, Suter could be moved at deadline for futures. But, if the team is that bad, their value could disappear.

Expected: Growth from a few players, slides from a couple others, team still finishes in bottom 6-10 in league.

• I would expect Suter to struggle out of the gate, but eventually find some chemistry with a talented winger. Vrana should cool off, his shooting percentage will come back to earth from the 25% he was at after the trade last year, likely settling in around his careen 13.7% rate. However, he should also get close to 200 shots, if not more in a full season on the top line, putting him in the high 20s in goals for the season. Zadina will probably find a little more success than he had this year. It's hard to imagine his bad puck luck continuing around the net. There were more than a handful of times last season when the puck just didn't bounce his way. He has far too good of a shot to repeat a 6.2% shooting percentage. Over a full season, with some better puck luck, I don't see how he couldn't score 20 goals this season.
• Odds are, one of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi will miss some time. How much time will be what determines the Wings fate this season.
• Stephens seems destined to be the 3-4C. If he can find some of his untapped potential, that could become 2-3C. Joe Veleno seems most likely to stick in the NHL this season. If he can find some of the offense that had him as a top scorer in the QMJHL for two season, that would go a long ways for this team. Berggren and Raymond are not likely to play significant time, as the team wouldn't want to burn a year of their ELCs unless they tear it up. And by tear it up, I mean producing near a point-per-game clip. Unless one of the sticks with the club out of camp, it's not likely they would eclipse that 9 game mark unless they are torching the AHL, too.
• It probably isn't likely that Nedeljkovic has quite the same success this time around. Even Greiss struggled in his first season with the club, and there will be an adjustment period with a vastly different team in front of him. I mean, the best defense is a good offense, right? Greiss will probably look a bit more like the netminder we saw in the second half of 2021. He clearly adjusted, and looked like the guy the Wings knew they were getting. I would still plan on a platoon situation, but TG should be able to carry the weight if AN has any struggles adjusting.
• Trades involving Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher could occur at the deadline if the team doesn't envision any of them being re-signed. Same goes for Leddy. If Bertuzzi and Fabbri stay healthy, I could see a trade happening if it could improve the long term outlook. In any trade for a serious asset like this, I think Yzerman will insist on a young center or center prospect coming back the other way. 

We saw last season, that a mild improvement was possible even though a lot of things didn't go right. We saw some improvement from Rasmussen, and a partially rebuilt defense that really cut down opponents' shot quality. We hoped to see Larkin cement himself as a true number one center (which we now think may never happen), and form a dominant trio with Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha who was certain to become a dominant player. When the latter didn't happen, it prompted the trade for Vrana. 

With continued reinforcements on the back end, Seider should help even with some inevitable growing pains, there should be stability even if the forward group continues to stagnate. This really boils down to the forwards and their ability to both stay healthy, and take that next step in their development. Even with the health of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi being in question, the team managed to stay competitive right down to the end. Credit the defense.

With a new assistant coach in Alex Tanguay, it gives some hope for the power play. Tanguay played on some tremendous power play units in his heyday, so having someone who has done it with the best, with go a long ways. It is important to note however, that it still comes down to the players on the ice. Nick Leddy will help in this regard. What I saw a lot last year, was teams just not respecting the Wings players with the puck on the power play. The only guy who was really respected with the puck was Mantha, the rest of the team would have a defender on them as soon as they got the puck, and it was a rare occasion when they could actually retain possession. The talent level necessary to beat guys one-on-one and create that aspect of respect when the Wings have the puck still isn't there, and with only one meaningful acquisition up front in Suter, the growth will have to come from within.

Being healthy will go a little ways toward picking up a few extra wins, but the big steps forward will have to come from increased production, resulting from the continued development of the younger players. This season will be a true test of the Red Wings development ability. It's not so much a reflection on Yzerman, but more on the struggles we saw under Holland, when the team regularly failed to draft and develop NHL talent (think, Emmerton, Oulette, Sproul). This season should answer the question, 'Can the Wings salvage anything of the Holland era?' (Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, and Berggren are all Holland picks with a lot of hype to their names...) There have been a handful of personnel changes in the development department since Yzerman took the reigns, but it's still too early to tell the results as no Yzerman draft pick has played an NHL game yet. That should change early this year, with Seider and Raymond both knocking on the doors of LCA.

Red Wings 2021-2022 Breakout Candidates

 We all have in mind who needs to break out for the Red Wings, but who else could make a jump and help push the team forward in the rebuild? We will start with the obvious choices...

5. Michael Rasmussen  He definitely showed there's a place for him in the NHL last year, as his feet finally started to catch up with the pace of the game at the top level. Adding some serious scoring would be a great scenario. While his ceiling seems to be closer to the 35-40 point mark, if he could come close to that this season as a likely third line center, that would be a successful season. If he is able to do it as a 3C, that means some other things went right down this list. More on that shortly.

4. Jakub Vrana  He showed some brilliance after being acquired from the Capitals in the Anthony Mantha trade, and instantly became an obvious candidate for a breakout. After playing on a cup team where he was essentially a third line winger, he was obviously sheltered from a prime role. Could his late season burst be the start of a major breakout? For a former top-15 pick who has shown flashes of brilliance in a sheltered role, I won't be betting against him. It's entirely possible that he posts better numbers than Mantha this season.

3. Filip Zadina  This one is obvious. The former number six pick has shown some serious growth in the past year. There are a lot of naysayers about him, and I just don't get it. At the moment, he is an outstanding two-way player. I was seriously impressed with his play away from the puck this past season, looking like Pavel Datsyuk on the backcheck on a handful of occasions.

No question, Zadina needs to find that next gear offensively. You can see he likes to handle the puck, but doesn't quite have the wheels to get the separation he needs to carry the puck like that. A quicker first couple steps could help. He lacks some explosiveness to his skating, but has some tremendous offensive skills. He is rarely out of position, and could seriously benefit from playing with better players, and more consistency in line mates. Is he a bust? Absolutely not. In fact, he's played about half the games of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and only has 7 fewer goals. Sure, we would all like a star right out of the gate, but Filip is far from a lost cause, and has yet to even play a full season. At a minimum, he should have the potential to score 20-20-40, how much he can do beyond that is the big question.

2. Dylan Larkin  Larkin? Seriously? Larkin's career to this point has been an offensive roller coaster. Up and down, as the talent around him has come and gone. And as injuries have nagged at him, he desperately needs a healthy breakout year. A breakout year from a guy who has scored 30 goals and 70 points before? Yes. He needs to get that confidence back, and more importantly build on it. With his speed and skill, there's no reason he shouldn't be putting up 60 points every year. Is he a top-end number one center? Nope. Is he one of the top 20 centers in the NHL? No again. But he's probably one of the top-30, which means he is a low-end 1C or high-end 2C. He should be scoring more regardless. He needs to be one of the top offensive guys on the team if any progress is going to be seen this year.

1. Pius Suter  That brings us to the newbie. There's a lot to like about Suter's game, but there's also some worry too. How much of his success as a rookie came as a result of playing with Patrick Kane? Looking at the highlights, quite a bit of it. But even though a lot of his production was the result of plays from Kane, one thing I constantly noticed, was he often seemed to be in the right spot. Whether for a rebound to bang home, or to take a drop pass heading up ice, he seems to be in the right spots. Some of that could be chemistry with an extremely talented linemate, but there's also some of that which is learned.

A productive reunion with Bertuzzi and Fabbri would be a welcome scenario for the Red Wings, as they effectively lack a bonafide 1C or 2C, depending on where you slot Larkin (by default, he falls into 1C category here). Regardless, it seems the Wings are counting on a lot out of Suter this year, and it may not be all that fair to lump a ton of expectation and responsibility on him from the start. This will be his third team in three years, with new linemates at each stop. Not to mention, the transition back to North America last year after spending a few years back overseas following his time in the Ontario Hockey League.

There will be a transition period for sure while Suter acclimates to his new linemates, assuming they are consistent (this is probably my biggest knock on Blashill, and sure he hasn't had much to work with, but even from his first season behind the bench, he is awfully quick to shuffle the lines, and it shows in the lack of chemistry between some otherwise talented players). Hopefully Suter will find some chemistry with whomever he plays with, and his positioning is encouraging on that front. A sophomore slump, however, could be devastating for a team without a whole lot of talent down the middle.

Where do the Red Wings go from here?

 As the start of training camp is fast approaching, it's hard to ignore what's on the line for the Red Wings organization in the coming years, but let's take a look at it...

When Steve Yzerman arrived, he inherited more than half a dozen underperforming contracts, and a barren prospect cabinet. Since then, the shelves have been stocked, and the slate cleared, and now it's a matter of time. Time that will be spent grueling through practices, and hours watching video, trying to learn from mistakes.

To me the process is clear, and here is what I would want to see:

1. Let the players show they aren't ready. In the past, Ken Holland often bragged about being able to leave prospects in the minors until they were "over-ripe." Sure, while it's hard to decide when to insert a prospect into a winning lineup, the cost of waiting too long is wasting the prime development years. I look at Gustav Nyquist as a prime example here. For a team that was seeing repeated early playoff exits, and a faltering status as the perennial division champ, it made no sense to leave Gus stewing in Grand Rapids for another whole season and then some, even after he was already scoring at a point per game pace, as a reliable 2-way player in the AHL. If it looks like a player is ready, let them prove it. If they aren't ready, they will prove that, too. But the days of rewarding loyalty need to be a thing of the past, and reserving roster spots for players that had success five years ago over someone who can perform today, is exactly what got us to this point. The slate is cleared, and it needs to stay that way until the team is ready to contend, and the players earn their keep. More on that ahead.

2. Make the players earn their payday. Now, there are a few thoughts here, but let me break it down. In the KH era, he liked to pay players for 'how they will play in the future.' While it's certainly nice to get a guy locked in at a low rate if you know they will be tearing it up in the future, the likelihood of projecting that isn't all that great. One example of this is Gus Nyquist again, and while he somewhat lived up to the value of that contract, we go back to number 1 and the fact that his prime development years were behind him by the time he got to the NHL. There just wasn't any more time for him to grow. These days, very few players take serious development steps after the age of 23, and Nyquist was 24 when he finally became a full-time NHLer, and had already posted his career high in goals, which he has yet to match again.

Another player that is an example of all that went wrong toward the end of the KH era is Jonathan Ericsson. Similar situation, where he spent two and a half seasons in Grand Rapids before sticking in the NHL at age 25. He was also given a hefty contract at the time, that he never really lived up to. He was partnered with Niklas Kronwall, but never managed to find any sort of offensive element to his game at the NHL level, despite the organization touting the fact that he was a center in Sweden. He was then rewarded with another hefty contract extension that ended with him in Grand Rapids under Yzerman's watch. He never truly earned it, but was given a hefty deal with the thought that he would continue to grow. Theory quickly met reality.

3. Both the player and the team need to be in a position for the big payday. It is entirely possible that the rebuild falls flat at some point. Even if we had a couple bona-fide star prospects, all it takes is an injury or two for things to go awry. If that were to happen, the team would be wise not to overspend to hang onto a player who is expecting a big raise. Only when both the team is on an upward trajectory, as well as a good number of the players, should long term contracts be doled out. Just because a player has earned it, doesn't mean the team should muddy up the slate with big contracts, especially if they won't be able to give them help in the near term.

In the salary cap era, there really is a limited window for teams to be successful. You've got to have the majority of your roster in their prime, or really close to it.

That's what makes so much of a rebuild is about timing, and the worst thing a team can do is refuse to admit when the timing is just flat out wrong. The best thing about the Red Wings roster right now, is the unquestionable flexibility they have created. If you sacrifice that flexibility before you are truly ready to compete, you may as well just start the rebuild over. It's one thing to be in cap-hell if you're winning Stanley Cups (ahem, Tampa Bay), and it's another thing if you aren't winning at all (Chicago is a one thought despite past success, but Montreal is squarely in this boat and weren't even really contenders before or now after their run this past season). That must be avoided. A quality player can always be traded for futures, but to lock them up long term only to languish and take the luster off their game, doesn't really benefit the player or the team, and just takes away that aforementioned flexibility (Oliver Ekman-Larsson comes to mind, and don't even get me started on the Canucks wasting one of the two retained salary transactions that his contract can go through for only $990k in savings, clearly a short-sighted move).

4. Patience is key. More to the timing of it all, the pieces have to fall into place at the right time. If that means a well-timed acquisition, great! If that means trading Tyler Bertuzzi or Filip Hronek in the next season or two, to secure more futures for the extended rebuild, that's fine too. While the Red Wings are drafting some solid prospects right now, it's important to remember, it will be 3-5 years before many of them make it to the NHL, if they do at all. For those that do make it, it could be another 2-3 years before they really become an impact player and grow to their full potential.

Best case, it's probably 5 years before we know what we've truly got in Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, and Sebastian Cossa (and goalies tend to take longer to develop anyways). So it's not happening overnight, and any later picks that pan out will take even longer. And injuries are just a part of the game that could derail the whole thing. We have a foundation, but it's entirely possible that the likes of Dylan Larkin, Bertuzzi, Hronek, and Robby Fabbri have either moved on, or are simply past their primes when the foundation becomes truly competitive.

And remember, Yzerman has done this before, and he's even traded some popular guys along the way. Sometimes you've got to admit when you need to kick the can down the road for a couple years because you just aren't there yet. Stevie has shown in the past he can make those decisions (remember Ben Bishop?).

It will take discipline in the long run to make it all happen. And there are certainly other factors, but if the Red Wings keep drafting well and can avoid the kind of mistakes and problems I've outlined here, then the future could be very bright.

Red Wings 2021 Draft Recap

Another disappointing lottery outcome left the Red Wings needing to create their own opportunities at the draft. They did just that, making a couple trades to jump up in the draft and take high-ceiling players:

1. D Simon Edvinsson (Round 1, 6th Overall) - When all of the center options jumped off the board in the top 5, the Red Wings went back and doubled down on defense. There's a lot to like about this kid, who brings comparisons to Victor Hedman, though I think it's necessary to temper expectations there. While they both are long, mobile defensemen, Edvinsson probably doesn't have the same offensive projection as Hedman. While the sky seems to be the limit for Simon, it will likely take a while to realize his full potential, but he has all of the tools to top-4 defensive d-man for a long time.
2. G Sebastian Cossa (Round 1, 15th Overall) - It's becoming clear what Yzerman values in a goalie. Size. Every goalie Yzerman has taken with the Wings has been taller than 6'4". While the sample size is a mere three with Detroit, the trend was similar in Tampa Bay, where he regularly took goalies 6'3" and up, including the current backstop Andrei Vasilevskiy. There are certainly knocks on Cossa, in that he lacks control in his lateral movement, causing him to be out of position, but that's something that can be improved. For a big guy, the word that keeps getting tossed around is athleticism. And that's something you can't teach. The Red Wings moved up 7 spots here to grab Cossa, sending a second round pick to Dallas. Time will tell whether Cossa or Jesper Wallstedt (20th, MIN) end up being the better of the two. Both have the tools, and Wallstedt may be a little further in his development, but Cossa has the size advantage by 3 inches. The taller the goalie, the more of him there is for pucks to hit, but the development needs to continue all the same.
3. D Shai Buium (Round 2, 35th Overall) - Another guy who seems like he could have a whole lot of upside. Has the raw tools to make it, and showed them in Plymouth shortly after the draft in the Junior Showcase, against some of the other top players in his age group from around the world. The Wings moved up here (their second and final jump up in this draft), shipping a 4th rounder to Vegas to jump up a couple spots, and it's not hard to understand why. He will be attending the University of Denver this fall.
4. W Carter Mazur (Round 3, 69th Overall) - Mazur was drafted as a 19 year old, after being passed over last year. Had a big year in the USHL, and at one point, played for some guy named Draper. So the connections are there. And they would know the character of player they are getting, perhaps better than anyone. He will also be attending the University of Denver, where the Red Wings will have 3 prospects, including Buium and 2019 2nd round pick Antti Tuomisto.
5. C Redmond Savage (Round 4, 113th Overall) - A seemingly late selection as far as the USNTDP is concerned, Savage is no slouch as far as praise is concerned. For the USA Hockey development program, it seems like every year lately, there have been 3-5 prospects tagged for the first round alone. He finishes checks and does a lot of little things well. He will be playing at the University of Miami (OH) in the fall.
6. C Liam Dower Nilsson (Round 5, 133rd Overall) - The story that everyone's talking about, is how the Red Wings asked all of Liam's draft eligible teammates whom they would want on their team, and they all said LDN. That's quite high praise. His work ethic and drive have stood out to the organization, and he knows very well that his development is a long term project, admitting as much that he probably wouldn't see the NHL for five years or so. But, his idol was Henrik Zetterberg, so if he can mold himself into the same type of responsible two-way center that Hank was, then this could be another building block in 3-5 years.
7. D Oscar Plandowski (Round 5, 154th Overall) -  On the lower end size-wise for Yzerman drafted defensemen at only 6 feet tall. He adds another right-handed shot from the blue line to an organization that is now flush with that attribute, after nearly a decade on the hunt for one. Should have a chance to grow this year with a couple of older players moving on from his QMJHL club.
8. W Pasquale Zito (Round 6, 165th Overall) - There's not a lot out there on Zito, but this is just the type of spot where it's low risk, with a potentially high reward. Late in the draft, there are a lot of guys that didn't play much due to the pandemic, or just had their seasons cancelled altogether. There are bound to be a few sixth-seventh rounders who would have made huge strides from their rookie years in the Ontario Hockey League, for example, where the season was scrapped entirely. Zito seems to fit this description.

We are starting to see what Yzerman values in players. On the back end, he values a combination of size and mobility, both on defense and in the crease. Up front, size clearly matters less, as he continues to add skilled players, often of a more diminutive stature. Above all, they clearly value character, and with all of the stories you hear after the draft, of Yzerman making these kids uncomfortable with his interview questioning, and asking teammates who you'd want to play with, he's trying to get honest opinions of these kids, and from their peers. And there's no better way to build a culture than that.

Overall, I was torn on how to grade the Red Wings draft as either a B+/A-. I am torn as to where I want to put it. Part of me thought B+ because they may have passed on a couple of really intriguing players in favor of "high ceiling" guys. Another part of me thinks A- because of the moves made at the draft, and how they leveraged their excess draft capital to get a better player in a couple of spots. I need to keep reminding myself though, that this is a rebuild, and it's going to take time.

Without getting one of the top 2-3 picks, well, ever, you need to find other guys that have that higher ceiling, even if it takes time and maybe even a couple of misses along the way. The Red Wings are taking the guys they think have the highest ceiling, and we just need to be patient. One thing is for sure, from his very first pick as GM, he picks have often been headscratchers. No one expected Moritz Seider, but no one is arguing now that he is a legit top-2 defensive prospect. Will they all work out that way? No, not a chance. But as long as they are proving people wrong, you can't really argue with the results.

One thing I wish I'd seen in the draft, was a couple more late round shots. With a lot of the late rounders, many of them didn't have much of a season, and some didn't have one at all (looking at you, OHL). I wouldn't have minded to see the Red Wings have a couple more shots there at guys who weren't scouted all that much.

For now, I will go with an A-, because I think the Wings loaded up with quality people this year. Five years down the road may be another story, but if they can figure out the player development side which wasn't overly productive under Holland, then maybe they can turn a few of these kids into NHL regulars.

Frans Nielsen Buyout and Other Thoughts

I'm not sure why the team didn't buy out Frans earlier in the offseason, instead waiting for the post-arbitration window (opened by Adam Erne's filing), but he is now gone. The team needed Frans to meet the expansion draft exposure requirements at forward, but he still could have been bought out after Seattle disappointed the hockey world with their selections.

While the move saves the team roughly $1M in cap space, this move was never about the math, and all about opening a roster spot for youngsters to take. The team is not giving this spot to a youngster, but with so many young guys (Veleno, Berggren, Raymond, Smith) vying for a roster spot (Smith is out of waiver options), the team is showing them the spots they can take. In the unlikely scenario where Veleno, Berggren, and Raymond all show they aren't ready, Taro Hirose, Chase Pearson, or Luke Witkowski could be called upon to take that spot.

Personally, I was still surprised when the team didn't buy out Frans in the first window. There has been no real change in the projection of the organization that likely would have altered their decision making. I mean, what changed for the organization between the first and second window? They lost Luke Glendening, their best faceoff man, and Valtteri Filppula, another veteran center. Unless they were unsure of the center position, with those two and Sam Gagner all being free agents, and this prior to Mitchell Stephens' signing, then I understand the thought process.

At the end of the day, that leaves only one bad holdover contract from the Holland era, that of Danny DeKeyser. Danny got off to a slow start this past season, which was to be expected. By the end of the year, he was starting to look like his old self, so it's good to see him get another chance. His injury history is concerning, and I tend to look at him as the defensive version of Darren Helm. He was solid in his younger days when he stayed healthy, but will the toll of injuries cause him to change his game to the point where he is ineffective? Time will tell.

Yzerman now has a roster that is entirely of his own making. It is far from perfect, but very managable year to year. It is up to each player to compete for a roster spot, and actually earn a long-term contract. Something that was regularly handed out during the Holland era, like free samples at Costco. Those days are done, accountability is being created, and whomever earns their spots will get them. More are available than there have been in a long time, and we finally have some intriguing prospects competing for them.

Post-Trade Deadline Expansion Draft Projected Protected List

As the dust continues to settle from the trade deadline, the next big date for the NHL is the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft on July 21. The rules will be the same as they were for the Vegas draft, and can be found here.

Most teams choose to protect 7 forwards, and 3 defensemen, in addition to one netminder (8 skaters is also an option for teams wishing to protect more than 3 defensemen). Assuming 7/3/1 is the path the Red Wings take, most of the list is no brainers. While Vegas did select a few UFAs, it isn't likely that Seattle will go that route, as Vegas didn't have much luck in ultimately signing any of those players. So for this list, I am assuming that only players with contracts, or RFA status will be protected, since the rebuilding Red Wings won't be risking a young player for a UFA they may not ultimately be able to re-sign.

So here is ho the Wings' list is shaping up:

Forwards

No brainers:

1. Dylan Larkin - Captain, leader, face of the franchise.
2. Tyler Bertuzzi - Probably the most consistent offensive weapon on the team, when healthy.
3. Jakub Vrana - No-brainer number 3. He was the key player acquired from Washington in the Anthony Mantha trade.
4. Robby Fabbri - The last of the no-brainers on offense. Still the best trade Yzerman has made to date (Mantha trade still being evaluated), Fabbri has cemented himself as a key player on a club that lacks offensive fire-power.

The decisions:

At the beginning of the season, there were a handful of decisions to be made, on a whole lot of players. I had Taro Hirose, Evgeny Svechnikov, Givani Smith, and Vladislav Namestnikov as realistic options for these final three forward spots. Over the course of the season, this picture has become clearer.

1. Vladislav Namestnikov - The most overlooked aspect of the Mantha trade, is the added flexibility that Richard Panik provides Detroit for the expansion draft. While it is extremely unlikely that the Kraken select Panik, him having met the games played requirement for 2 players exposed, allows the Red Wings to protect Vlad. He has a club friendly $2mm cap hit for one more year, which is the exact type of player the Golden Knights gobbled up in their draft a few years ago.
2. Michael Rasmussen - His development was showing a handful of question marks at the outset of the season, but his skating appears to have noticeably improved, and the offense is starting to follow in his latest stint in the NHL.
3. Adam Erne - Admittedly, I had all but written off Adam Erne at the beginning of the season. He had an abysmal season in 2019-20, was not even given a qualifying offer, but was re-signed shortly after. He has turned his fortunes around, and has created some offense from his grinding role, even finding some time on the power play. Recently, he has been showing why Yzerman brought him to Detroit for only a 4th round pick. Clearly, it was believed there was more to Erne's game than the 20 points he posted his final year in Tampa Bay, and he is showing that potential now.

Notable players exposed:

1. Evgeny Svechnikov - Finally healthy, the elder Svech got off to a strong start in the NHL this season, but has completely disappeared since. He will be 25 in October, so the clock is ticking on him to put it all together. He has cleared waivers twice this season, so it is a good bet that he wouldn't be the player the Kraken select, and he simply hasn't shown enough to be protected over those on the list. His injury history may also scare Seattle away unless he strings together some strong outings in the remaining games this year.
2. Taro Hirose - off to a strong start with Grand Rapids, there is some offensive potential there, but just as with Svechnikov, he is an older prospect who will be 25 in June. There have been flashes of his playmaking ability, but nothing consistently shows at the top level. He's probably more of the third line guy, at best, but his vision could find him some power play time as well.
3. Givani Smith - Of all the players exposed at forward, Smith seems to be the most intriguing. He is a scrappy player, who can win battles, and play up and down the lineup. He just turned 23 in February, so the clock hasn't quite expired on his development (although it is quickly winding down). He doesn't have a ton of time in the NHL under his belt, but hasn't looked out of place in his limited time. He is a unique type of player, and probably the most likely to be selected from the forward group, unless Seattle wanted to take a swing at signing a pending UFA (Bobby Ryan or Luke Glendening could be attractive pieces).
4. Frans Nielsen - His contract and declining ability make him an obvious candidate to be exposed. The games played requirement for exposed players are likely the biggest reason why he wasn't bought out last offseason. That could change this offseason, with only one more season remaining on his contract. However, he is only owed $3mm next season, so for an expansion club, this could be a cost effective way to meet the salary cap ($5.25mm cap hit in 2021-22), although even at $3mm he would be overvalued.

Defense

No-brainer

1. Filip Hronek - He is the iron-man of the Wings' defense corps, playing in all situations. He is a clear top-4 defenseman, and still only 23.

The decisions:

1. Troy Stecher - he has shown why he was given a two year contract this past offseason. He just plays a smart game, and is one of the hardest workers on the ice. There isn't a lot of offensive production to his game, but his advanced statistics show that he has a positive impact on the ice, in both the offensive and defensive zones. His contract cost, and advanced statistics make him all but a no-brainer for the list.
2. Dennis Cholowski - He just turned 23, and will have the opportunity down the stretch to show he belongs in the NHL. He has top tier offensive abilities as a defenseman, but has serious deficiencies in his own end. That will be the ultimate determinant for Dennis. Can his offensive abilities make up for the exposure he has in his own end? If he were to be left unprotected, and ultimately figure out the defensive side of things, he could end up being to the Kraken, what Shea Theodore is to the Golden Knights.

Notable players exposed:

1. Gustav Lindstrom - probably the most NHL ready of the Red Wing's defensive prospects. He doesn't turn 23 until October, and has shown he can be very good in his own end, and start things up ice with an excellent first pass. There isn't a whole lot to his game offensively, but that first pass is something the Wings currently lack. His play down the stretch could ultimately help him supplant Cholowski as the final protected defenseman. Unless they go the UFA route and take a swing at signing Marc Staal, Lindstrom would be a solid, albeit unexciting selection here.
2. Danny DeKeyser - His contract ($5mm for one more season) and his injury history make him an unlikely candidate to be selected. He has the type of contract Yzerman has been allowing to expire to get off the books.

Goalie

1. Thomas Greiss - In what started as a rough season for the Fuessen, Germany native, Greiss has come on strong of late, in the absence of Jonathan Bernier. Both are solid goaltenders, and provide the Wings with a solid pairing night-in and night-out. Given Bernier's UFA status, the nod here goes to Greiss.

When the dust settles from the expansion draft, expect a number of UFAs from all teams to be re-signed in fairly short order. While the Red Wings don't have many significant UFAs, Staal, Ryan, Glendening, Helm, and Gagner all figure to be good bets to re-sign with the club at the right price.

Yzerman has done a great job of readying the team for this expansion draft, and there is no clear-cut choice to make here for Seattle. My decision would probably be between Givani Smith and Gustav Lindstrom, but there's always the possibility that Stevie decides to help steer their decision, and send one of the team's plethora of draft picks over the next couple seasons to help sway them in a certain direction.