Jeff Blashill's Grade... and what's missing

Helene St. James had an article yesterday for the Free Press here, talking about Jeff Blashill's value to the club. It gave me the idea to talk a little about the topic myself...

The bottom line with Blashill, is the development of young players. The team is seeing some positive results in that regard this year, but it isn't all roses. For this purpose, I will exclude Larkin and Bertuzzi, as they have mostly moved past the development phase of their careers, and have cemented themselves as the cornerstones of the franchise.

Plusses:

1. Moritz Seider - he has been everything that was promised, and more. While his offensive ability was never expected to be close to that of a Cale Makar, he certainly has been no slouch. Nothing fancy here, but rock solid play at both ends of the ice. He has become more comfortable as the season has progressed. He looks like a lock to be a top-2 defenseman.
2. Lucas Raymond - very much on the bubble at the outset of camp, Raymond impressed with his ability to play at the NHL pace, making impressive plays along the way. There have been some statistical ups and downs, but no reason to be skeptical of his play. He certainly has the potential to be a top line player, and is already a bon-a-fide top-6.
3. Alex Nedeljkovic - a widely cheered acquisition during the offseason, Ned has continued to build on his first rookie campaign last season with Carolina. He has won a number of games on his own, and is beginning to look like a goalie the Wings can rely on for the next 5-7 years, if they choose to.
4. Gustav Lindstrom - Similar to Seider, there is nothing flashy about Gus' game. He makes the smart plays, and good first passes to start breakouts. While it would be nice if he could find another offensive element to his game, to match his defensive prowess, history at every level suggests that may not come. He has never put up big numbers offensively, so his ceiling may be limited to how well he can shut down opposing attacks. For now, he is a solid 5-6 defenseman, but without that offensive side, may be hard-pressed to work his way into the top-4.

Even:

1. Filip Hronek - after what seemed like a couple of years where he looked like a top-4 defenseman, he has struggled somewhat in second pair duty. The offensive instincts are obvious, but considering Seider is typically seeing the other team's top lines, his defensive play is still an issue. His offensive output remains strong, especially considering he is no longer on the top power-play unit. With stronger defensive play, he is a 2-3 d-man. As it stands, he is closer to 4-5.

Minuses:

1. Joe Veleno - this is where I begin the parade of heralded Ken Holland picks that have failed to bear any fruit... Heralded as an NHL ready center, he got off to a decent start, with multiple points in his first 10 games. Since then, however, he has disappeared. Granted, he is seeing sparse offensive zone time on the 4th line, but what was notable in his first few games is his quick first couple steps and above average stick-handling ability. And while he has a quick first couple of steps, he seems to lack another separation gear when skating in a straight line. More quality time would benefit him, but what looked like an ability to create earlier on, has disappeared during his offensive drought. If he finds the offense, he could be a legit number 3 center, with the ability to play some on the power-play.
2. Michael Rasmussen - like Veleno, he was a talented pivot in junior hockey that has failed to take that "next step." While Veleno is only seeing his first meaningful playing time this season, Rasmussen has already provided an abundance of disappointment for Wings fans over the past four. With a 6'6" frame like his, he certainly gets pushed around a lot. He plays more like he is 5'10" rather than six and a half feet tall. Compared to a guy like Adam Erne who is listed at 6'1" and plays more like 6'3-4", Rasmussen rarely wins battles for space. He is not overly physical, frequently declining to finish a check on the forecheck, and hasn't taken that next step this season. Last year his skating was notably better, albeit still abysmal, but with so many shortcomings in his play, it's hard to see him fitting as more than a 4th line center. He can win faceoffs, but his defensive play isn't stellar, so his ceiling as a 4th liner may be limited. His ability to stick in the NHL will be 100% dependent on his ability to find offense, as he hasn't shown the toolkit to play a checking role. Even in a little bit of power play time, he fails to be disruptive in front of the net. Again, for such a big frame, not a good sign.
3. Filip Zadina - this is the one that I continue to be baffled by... He has a phenomenal shot, when given the space, and clear puck-handling ability. Unlike Veleno, he doesn't have a quick first couple steps, but like Veleno, also lacks that "separation gear." In the January 26 game against the Blackhawks, he had one shift where he created 3-4 chances, only to have MAF make a couple of spectacular saves. The ability to create is there, but his skating keeps him from driving the play himself. His shooting percentage is really low, which makes me think that he's had some bad puck-luck, but his career percentage isn't much better, even though the sample size is very small. He has been brought up as a change-of-scenery candidate, but all that would bring back is someone else's reclamation project. Given the Wings clear need for scoring wingers, it makes sense to keep him in the fold. If he starts to find the net - then great! If he can't find the net, he has still made sizable progress with other parts of his game to stick on any NHL roster... It's just a matter of where. For now, he is right where he should be, on the third line. If the offense starts to come, he could wiggle his way into the top-6.
4. Givani Smith - he hasn't made the offensive strides I thought were possible after his 16 game cameo last season. He has provided the advertised sandpaper to the team, but has been a bit of a wild-card in terms of discipline. It reminds me of Sean Avery's brief time with the team. There's an energy every time he's out there, but too often, it has ended with his team down a man. He has looked like a bubble player this season, after the team showed a vote of confidence by protecting him in the expansion draft over the summer. Right now, he's a 12-13th forward, but with more discipline and experience, the potential is there to be a 3rd liner, as he has some offensive ability.

Incomplete:

1. Mitchell Stephens - a guy who showed some good hands in junior, and some good jump in the preseason, he just can't catch a break. A significant 'lower-body injury' 16 games in, has him on the shelf until this spring. I liked his skating ability and his hustle, and despite being a 4th line center, looks like he may have a bit of offense to his game. He has shown offense at every previous level, just not in limited time in the NHL. Unfortunately, this extended absence doesn't help his cause. He is a 4th line center when healthy, and seems to have some ability to play a 3c role when needed.

All in all, a few young players have made significant strides, while a few have not. I don't think it's any coincidence that all of the minuses on my list were spillovers from the Ken Holland era. Holland consistently failed to draft and develop in the last 15 years of his tenure, leading the team's fall from grace. Every draft between 2015-2018 had a questionable first round choice. Granted, Zadina was a consensus top-10 pick in his draft year, but there were doubts about his game from the beginning, leading to him falling to Detroit number 6. Montreal famously passed on him in favor of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was widely panned from day one.

Aside from Anthony Mantha and Larkin, taken in consecutive drafts in 2013 and 2014, respectively, one would have to go back to 2000 when the team drafted Niklas Kronwall to find a first round pick who actually lived up to expectations. Brendan Smith and Riley Sheahan have managed to stick around the NHL, but both are depth players at best. Sure, Holland traded away scores of picks to keep the team in contention, but also bragged about their ability to mine gems from the late rounds. After Zetterberg in 1999, there haven't been many late round surprises. When the picks were there, they rarely panned out.

That said, you can't pin too much on Blashill. He is developing the players Steve Yzerman is giving him, and that's what Stevie wants to see. If at some point that stops, or the Stevie believes the team has the tools to take the next step and Blashill is failing to push them there, a change will be made then. But for now, the team is clearly lacking to proper players to take that next step, and Yzerman knows it.

In my next entry, I will examine how the roster is shaping up in light of the projections above. Stay tuned...

When should I start eating my words?

I'll be honest... I didn't get to watch the whole game last night, but man, the Red Wings are looking like a tough team to beat. This team is starting to show some swagger, and a confidence not seen since Jeff Blashill took over at the helm.

I was beyond skeptical of their ability to contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they did. For the most part, they managed to keep them to the outside, limiting the quality shots. They are getting timely offense from up and down the lineup, with Namestnikov scoring two. He now has 7 on the year in just 14 games, while he had 8 all of last year in 53 games. These are the kind of bounce-back seasons the Red Wings need to move the needle on the rebuild. We all knew there was more to Vlad's game than the 8 he scored last year, and I'm sure there will be a down stretch, but he was able to score on a night when the top line wasn't clicking.

Nedeljkovic had his best game as a Red Wing, shutting the door when the barrage did come in the third. The Red Wings showed up on time for this one, something I lamented in my last post. They were out in front from the start, and maybe it's the big-game motivation that got them there. This is how they need to show up every night.

I don't expect them to win every time they face a top team, but this was a welcomed change from game one where they blew two separate three-goal leads to the Lightning. This team is battling, and has me eating the words I wrote just before yesterdays game. I am very cautiously optimistic about this team. The infusion of immensely talented youth, coupled with some savvy veterans continues to pay dividends, and I can't wait to see how they follow it up tomorrow. We are now 20% of the way through the season, and this team is looking like they belong right where they are.

Here's to hoping I am wrong...

Out of the gate it looks like 3-4 of my preseason predictions could be wrong. I'm not all that disappointed, though. Let's review:

1. Moritz Seider is a finalist for the Calder Trophy
• I don't think this is too far fetched. He is showing why he was defenseman of the year in the SHL last season. Big, mobile, and can handle the puck.
• There will be speed bumps, but he will be a massive upgrade to the Wings' D-corps in the short and long term.
• He should score 30-35 points, manning the second powerplay unit.
2. Dylan Larkin will have a bounce-back season
• He will lead the team in points, with 50-60.
3. Lucas Raymond will score less than 45 points
• He looks poised to start the season on the top line with Larkin. He will provide some pop at times, but I fully anticipate the 82 game grind to take a toll mid-season, and he will slow down. The Olympic break could be a godsend for him, as it could be just the break he needs, just when the grind usually gets to the younger players.
4. Pius Suter scores 50+ points
• Honestly, I think Larkin gets more of the minutes early, but I think Suter will eventually supplant Larkin as the top center. Whether that's this year or next is another story.
5. Thomas Greiss plays more than 60% of the games
• While I think Alex Nedeljkovic has a whole lot of talent, I do think he will come back to earth a bit. Thomas Greiss had a fantastic second half last year, and I think he continues that, now that he is familiar with the defense. I think this will be something of a platoon situation, with the team riding the hot hand, but I think Nedeljkovic will be 1a rather than number 1.

Lots to digest, but some thoughts so far on each one:

1. At this point, Moritz Seider is probably neck and neck with his own teammate for the Calder. Lucas Raymond leads all rookies in points with 14 in 13 games, but Seider's all-around play has been something special, and he leads rookie defensemen in points with 10, to Bowen Byram's 8 (albeit in three more games). Though, it should be noted that Byram is shooting at 17.7% in the early going, and that isn't likely to be sustained over 82 games. Where I may end up being dead wrong, is with Seider having only 30-35 points this season, as he is currently on pace for 63 points. I expect both him and Raymond to cool down a bit, but the early results are encouraging. Mo started on the second power play unit this season, and has already been promoted to PP1, which is a testament to his underrated offensive abilities. He is never going to be Cale Makar (whom I am quickly establishing as the gold standard for talented defensemen), but he is no slouch with the puck on his stick, and he can lead a rush with authority. Playing on a rejuvenated PP1 has clearly been a big reason for his early offensive output.
2. Larkin is already showing signs of a bounce-back season, but the way things are going, he my not lead the team in points. Obviously, one injury can change everything, but if he continues his strong play and ends up not leading the team in points, I don't think that's going to be a bad thing. The team needs as many point producers as they can get.
3. Welp, I am looking dead wrong here. Lucas Raymond is currently on pace for 88 points. Wowza! Now, maybe I've seen too many rookies come in and get off to hot starts with the Red Wings (only to see them cool down and/or never build on it) to have much confidence here (Brunner, Jurco, Sheahan, Athanasiou, Frk, Nyquist, Cholowski, Brendan Smith), but something tells me he will cool off drastically at some point. Raymond and Seider will both likely have a bumpy patch this year, but there's no arguing they are both immensely talented players with bright futures ahead of them.
4. I think this one is still very doable. Suter got off to a bumpy start in the first five to six games, as he's adjusted to new teammates and systems. The skill is there, and the puck seems to follow him around a bit, which isn't a bad thing with his instincts. It's taken him a bit to get his footing, but the past five games he has looked very good, and whomever he's playing with, they seem to have good chemistry, and the ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone. They aren't always getting the scoring chances, but pinning the other team in their own zone is never a bad thing.
5. Save for one game where he misplayed a couple pucks, Greiss has been outstanding. Nedeljkovic had a rough first few outings, but has since righted the ship, and the two find themselves in a 50/50 timeshare. The team has two netminders that can answer the call on any given night, and that is quite a luxury. If one starts to struggle, the other will pick up some starts in the meantime, as the team will ride the hot hand. This one could go either way if one starts to struggle.

While the team got off to a hot start, they are showing signs of cooling. On the nights when the NHL's lone unvaccinated player isn't around to help out his teammates, the difference is stark. The teams' two rookie skaters have looked outstanding, but there are questions as to whether their performance can be sustained over a whole season. Odds are, they experience some growing pains at some point.

For Seider, those growing pains could be seen as soon as tonight, as he is tasked with holding down Connor McDavid and his fellow countryman Leon Draisaitl.

For Raymond, his shifty puck handling has been impressive, and an improved power play overall has helped him produce.

The power play looks completely different from last season. The Tanguay effect is evident. Last season, teams didn't respect the Red Wings on the power play. Mantha was the only guy who was respected to the point where they wouldn't just swarm him when he had space with the puck. The answer to aggressive penalty kills? Faster puck movement. The Wings are moving the puck very quickly with the man advantage, rarely having one guy able to hang onto the puck for more than a second or two. Teams are still aggressive when on the kill, but the Wings are managing to hang on to the puck much better this time around, and the quicker puck movement is impressively helping.

All of the success early is also being done without the guy expected to lead the team in points before camp started, Jakub Vrana. He is likely out at least another 3 months, but if the team continues on it's current trajectory, he could be a welcomed boost to a club currently hovering around .500. The early results are unexpected, yet impressive. The ability to stay in games continues to improve, and the knack for battling back is making for a lot of late game intrigue.

The one area that continues to leave me puzzled is the occasional period where the Wings seemingly don't show up. Getting tripled or quadrupled up on shots in a single period is still an issue at times, and a reflection of the coaching staff's continued inability to successfully implement strategy changes on the fly. After an intermission, the strategy typically changes and we see a different team, but at some point all those chances are going to start ending up in their own net.

It's been a fun start to watch, and if it holds, it could move the rebuild timeline up a bit. If it can be sustained, I am more than happy to be wrong in a lot of my projections here.

Five Predictions for the 2021-22 Season

1. Moritz Seider is a finalist for the Calder Trophy
• I don't think this is too far fetched. He is showing why he was defenseman of the year in the SHL last season. Big, mobile, and can handle the puck.
• There will be speed bumps, but he will be a massive upgrade to the Wings' D-corps in the short and long term.
• He should score 30-35 points, manning the second powerplay unit.
2. Dylan Larkin will have a bounce-back season
• He will lead the team in points, with 50-60.
3. Lucas Raymond will score less than 45 points
• He looks poised to start the season on the top line with Larkin. He will provide some pop at times, but I fully anticipate the 82 game grind to take a toll mid-season, and he will slow down. The Olympic break could be a godsend for him, as it could be just the break he needs, just when the grind usually gets to the younger players.
4. Pius Suter scores 50+ points
• Honestly, I think Larkin gets more of the minutes early, but I think Suter will eventually supplant Larkin as the top center. Whether that's this year or next is another story.
5. Thomas Greiss plays more than 60% of the games
• While I think Alex Nedeljkovic has a whole lot of talent, I do think he will come back to earth a bit. Thomas Greiss had a fantastic second half last year, and I think he continues that, now that he is familiar with the defense. I think this will be something of a platoon situation, with the team riding the hot hand, but I think Nedeljkovic will be 1a rather than number 1.

Bobby Ryan out in Detroit

 Blashill has told the media that Bobby Ryan has been released from hit PTO.

Obviously, with Veleno and Raymond still skating with the team, they think the youngsters bring more jump to the lineup. I thought Ryan had a strong camp, and goes to some hard areas to play in. The youth movement is in full swing.

Where do the Red Wings go from here?

 As the start of training camp is fast approaching, it's hard to ignore what's on the line for the Red Wings organization in the coming years, but let's take a look at it...

When Steve Yzerman arrived, he inherited more than half a dozen underperforming contracts, and a barren prospect cabinet. Since then, the shelves have been stocked, and the slate cleared, and now it's a matter of time. Time that will be spent grueling through practices, and hours watching video, trying to learn from mistakes.

To me the process is clear, and here is what I would want to see:

1. Let the players show they aren't ready. In the past, Ken Holland often bragged about being able to leave prospects in the minors until they were "over-ripe." Sure, while it's hard to decide when to insert a prospect into a winning lineup, the cost of waiting too long is wasting the prime development years. I look at Gustav Nyquist as a prime example here. For a team that was seeing repeated early playoff exits, and a faltering status as the perennial division champ, it made no sense to leave Gus stewing in Grand Rapids for another whole season and then some, even after he was already scoring at a point per game pace, as a reliable 2-way player in the AHL. If it looks like a player is ready, let them prove it. If they aren't ready, they will prove that, too. But the days of rewarding loyalty need to be a thing of the past, and reserving roster spots for players that had success five years ago over someone who can perform today, is exactly what got us to this point. The slate is cleared, and it needs to stay that way until the team is ready to contend, and the players earn their keep. More on that ahead.

2. Make the players earn their payday. Now, there are a few thoughts here, but let me break it down. In the KH era, he liked to pay players for 'how they will play in the future.' While it's certainly nice to get a guy locked in at a low rate if you know they will be tearing it up in the future, the likelihood of projecting that isn't all that great. One example of this is Gus Nyquist again, and while he somewhat lived up to the value of that contract, we go back to number 1 and the fact that his prime development years were behind him by the time he got to the NHL. There just wasn't any more time for him to grow. These days, very few players take serious development steps after the age of 23, and Nyquist was 24 when he finally became a full-time NHLer, and had already posted his career high in goals, which he has yet to match again.

Another player that is an example of all that went wrong toward the end of the KH era is Jonathan Ericsson. Similar situation, where he spent two and a half seasons in Grand Rapids before sticking in the NHL at age 25. He was also given a hefty contract at the time, that he never really lived up to. He was partnered with Niklas Kronwall, but never managed to find any sort of offensive element to his game at the NHL level, despite the organization touting the fact that he was a center in Sweden. He was then rewarded with another hefty contract extension that ended with him in Grand Rapids under Yzerman's watch. He never truly earned it, but was given a hefty deal with the thought that he would continue to grow. Theory quickly met reality.

3. Both the player and the team need to be in a position for the big payday. It is entirely possible that the rebuild falls flat at some point. Even if we had a couple bona-fide star prospects, all it takes is an injury or two for things to go awry. If that were to happen, the team would be wise not to overspend to hang onto a player who is expecting a big raise. Only when both the team is on an upward trajectory, as well as a good number of the players, should long term contracts be doled out. Just because a player has earned it, doesn't mean the team should muddy up the slate with big contracts, especially if they won't be able to give them help in the near term.

In the salary cap era, there really is a limited window for teams to be successful. You've got to have the majority of your roster in their prime, or really close to it.

That's what makes so much of a rebuild is about timing, and the worst thing a team can do is refuse to admit when the timing is just flat out wrong. The best thing about the Red Wings roster right now, is the unquestionable flexibility they have created. If you sacrifice that flexibility before you are truly ready to compete, you may as well just start the rebuild over. It's one thing to be in cap-hell if you're winning Stanley Cups (ahem, Tampa Bay), and it's another thing if you aren't winning at all (Chicago is a one thought despite past success, but Montreal is squarely in this boat and weren't even really contenders before or now after their run this past season). That must be avoided. A quality player can always be traded for futures, but to lock them up long term only to languish and take the luster off their game, doesn't really benefit the player or the team, and just takes away that aforementioned flexibility (Oliver Ekman-Larsson comes to mind, and don't even get me started on the Canucks wasting one of the two retained salary transactions that his contract can go through for only $990k in savings, clearly a short-sighted move).

4. Patience is key. More to the timing of it all, the pieces have to fall into place at the right time. If that means a well-timed acquisition, great! If that means trading Tyler Bertuzzi or Filip Hronek in the next season or two, to secure more futures for the extended rebuild, that's fine too. While the Red Wings are drafting some solid prospects right now, it's important to remember, it will be 3-5 years before many of them make it to the NHL, if they do at all. For those that do make it, it could be another 2-3 years before they really become an impact player and grow to their full potential.

Best case, it's probably 5 years before we know what we've truly got in Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, and Sebastian Cossa (and goalies tend to take longer to develop anyways). So it's not happening overnight, and any later picks that pan out will take even longer. And injuries are just a part of the game that could derail the whole thing. We have a foundation, but it's entirely possible that the likes of Dylan Larkin, Bertuzzi, Hronek, and Robby Fabbri have either moved on, or are simply past their primes when the foundation becomes truly competitive.

And remember, Yzerman has done this before, and he's even traded some popular guys along the way. Sometimes you've got to admit when you need to kick the can down the road for a couple years because you just aren't there yet. Stevie has shown in the past he can make those decisions (remember Ben Bishop?).

It will take discipline in the long run to make it all happen. And there are certainly other factors, but if the Red Wings keep drafting well and can avoid the kind of mistakes and problems I've outlined here, then the future could be very bright.

Red Wings 2021 Draft Recap

Another disappointing lottery outcome left the Red Wings needing to create their own opportunities at the draft. They did just that, making a couple trades to jump up in the draft and take high-ceiling players:

1. D Simon Edvinsson (Round 1, 6th Overall) - When all of the center options jumped off the board in the top 5, the Red Wings went back and doubled down on defense. There's a lot to like about this kid, who brings comparisons to Victor Hedman, though I think it's necessary to temper expectations there. While they both are long, mobile defensemen, Edvinsson probably doesn't have the same offensive projection as Hedman. While the sky seems to be the limit for Simon, it will likely take a while to realize his full potential, but he has all of the tools to top-4 defensive d-man for a long time.
2. G Sebastian Cossa (Round 1, 15th Overall) - It's becoming clear what Yzerman values in a goalie. Size. Every goalie Yzerman has taken with the Wings has been taller than 6'4". While the sample size is a mere three with Detroit, the trend was similar in Tampa Bay, where he regularly took goalies 6'3" and up, including the current backstop Andrei Vasilevskiy. There are certainly knocks on Cossa, in that he lacks control in his lateral movement, causing him to be out of position, but that's something that can be improved. For a big guy, the word that keeps getting tossed around is athleticism. And that's something you can't teach. The Red Wings moved up 7 spots here to grab Cossa, sending a second round pick to Dallas. Time will tell whether Cossa or Jesper Wallstedt (20th, MIN) end up being the better of the two. Both have the tools, and Wallstedt may be a little further in his development, but Cossa has the size advantage by 3 inches. The taller the goalie, the more of him there is for pucks to hit, but the development needs to continue all the same.
3. D Shai Buium (Round 2, 35th Overall) - Another guy who seems like he could have a whole lot of upside. Has the raw tools to make it, and showed them in Plymouth shortly after the draft in the Junior Showcase, against some of the other top players in his age group from around the world. The Wings moved up here (their second and final jump up in this draft), shipping a 4th rounder to Vegas to jump up a couple spots, and it's not hard to understand why. He will be attending the University of Denver this fall.
4. W Carter Mazur (Round 3, 69th Overall) - Mazur was drafted as a 19 year old, after being passed over last year. Had a big year in the USHL, and at one point, played for some guy named Draper. So the connections are there. And they would know the character of player they are getting, perhaps better than anyone. He will also be attending the University of Denver, where the Red Wings will have 3 prospects, including Buium and 2019 2nd round pick Antti Tuomisto.
5. C Redmond Savage (Round 4, 113th Overall) - A seemingly late selection as far as the USNTDP is concerned, Savage is no slouch as far as praise is concerned. For the USA Hockey development program, it seems like every year lately, there have been 3-5 prospects tagged for the first round alone. He finishes checks and does a lot of little things well. He will be playing at the University of Miami (OH) in the fall.
6. C Liam Dower Nilsson (Round 5, 133rd Overall) - The story that everyone's talking about, is how the Red Wings asked all of Liam's draft eligible teammates whom they would want on their team, and they all said LDN. That's quite high praise. His work ethic and drive have stood out to the organization, and he knows very well that his development is a long term project, admitting as much that he probably wouldn't see the NHL for five years or so. But, his idol was Henrik Zetterberg, so if he can mold himself into the same type of responsible two-way center that Hank was, then this could be another building block in 3-5 years.
7. D Oscar Plandowski (Round 5, 154th Overall) -  On the lower end size-wise for Yzerman drafted defensemen at only 6 feet tall. He adds another right-handed shot from the blue line to an organization that is now flush with that attribute, after nearly a decade on the hunt for one. Should have a chance to grow this year with a couple of older players moving on from his QMJHL club.
8. W Pasquale Zito (Round 6, 165th Overall) - There's not a lot out there on Zito, but this is just the type of spot where it's low risk, with a potentially high reward. Late in the draft, there are a lot of guys that didn't play much due to the pandemic, or just had their seasons cancelled altogether. There are bound to be a few sixth-seventh rounders who would have made huge strides from their rookie years in the Ontario Hockey League, for example, where the season was scrapped entirely. Zito seems to fit this description.

We are starting to see what Yzerman values in players. On the back end, he values a combination of size and mobility, both on defense and in the crease. Up front, size clearly matters less, as he continues to add skilled players, often of a more diminutive stature. Above all, they clearly value character, and with all of the stories you hear after the draft, of Yzerman making these kids uncomfortable with his interview questioning, and asking teammates who you'd want to play with, he's trying to get honest opinions of these kids, and from their peers. And there's no better way to build a culture than that.

Overall, I was torn on how to grade the Red Wings draft as either a B+/A-. I am torn as to where I want to put it. Part of me thought B+ because they may have passed on a couple of really intriguing players in favor of "high ceiling" guys. Another part of me thinks A- because of the moves made at the draft, and how they leveraged their excess draft capital to get a better player in a couple of spots. I need to keep reminding myself though, that this is a rebuild, and it's going to take time.

Without getting one of the top 2-3 picks, well, ever, you need to find other guys that have that higher ceiling, even if it takes time and maybe even a couple of misses along the way. The Red Wings are taking the guys they think have the highest ceiling, and we just need to be patient. One thing is for sure, from his very first pick as GM, he picks have often been headscratchers. No one expected Moritz Seider, but no one is arguing now that he is a legit top-2 defensive prospect. Will they all work out that way? No, not a chance. But as long as they are proving people wrong, you can't really argue with the results.

One thing I wish I'd seen in the draft, was a couple more late round shots. With a lot of the late rounders, many of them didn't have much of a season, and some didn't have one at all (looking at you, OHL). I wouldn't have minded to see the Red Wings have a couple more shots there at guys who weren't scouted all that much.

For now, I will go with an A-, because I think the Wings loaded up with quality people this year. Five years down the road may be another story, but if they can figure out the player development side which wasn't overly productive under Holland, then maybe they can turn a few of these kids into NHL regulars.

Frans Nielsen Buyout and Other Thoughts

I'm not sure why the team didn't buy out Frans earlier in the offseason, instead waiting for the post-arbitration window (opened by Adam Erne's filing), but he is now gone. The team needed Frans to meet the expansion draft exposure requirements at forward, but he still could have been bought out after Seattle disappointed the hockey world with their selections.

While the move saves the team roughly $1M in cap space, this move was never about the math, and all about opening a roster spot for youngsters to take. The team is not giving this spot to a youngster, but with so many young guys (Veleno, Berggren, Raymond, Smith) vying for a roster spot (Smith is out of waiver options), the team is showing them the spots they can take. In the unlikely scenario where Veleno, Berggren, and Raymond all show they aren't ready, Taro Hirose, Chase Pearson, or Luke Witkowski could be called upon to take that spot.

Personally, I was still surprised when the team didn't buy out Frans in the first window. There has been no real change in the projection of the organization that likely would have altered their decision making. I mean, what changed for the organization between the first and second window? They lost Luke Glendening, their best faceoff man, and Valtteri Filppula, another veteran center. Unless they were unsure of the center position, with those two and Sam Gagner all being free agents, and this prior to Mitchell Stephens' signing, then I understand the thought process.

At the end of the day, that leaves only one bad holdover contract from the Holland era, that of Danny DeKeyser. Danny got off to a slow start this past season, which was to be expected. By the end of the year, he was starting to look like his old self, so it's good to see him get another chance. His injury history is concerning, and I tend to look at him as the defensive version of Darren Helm. He was solid in his younger days when he stayed healthy, but will the toll of injuries cause him to change his game to the point where he is ineffective? Time will tell.

Yzerman now has a roster that is entirely of his own making. It is far from perfect, but very managable year to year. It is up to each player to compete for a roster spot, and actually earn a long-term contract. Something that was regularly handed out during the Holland era, like free samples at Costco. Those days are done, accountability is being created, and whomever earns their spots will get them. More are available than there have been in a long time, and we finally have some intriguing prospects competing for them.