Potential deadline movers, and the assets they could fetch

Looking forward to the 2021-22 season, the foregone conclusion is that the Red Wings will again be a bottom-10 team. While many of us eagerly await the upcoming year, if only to see if the team's prized prospects can take that 'next step,' I will take a look forward to the trade deadline and what the team may be able to fetch for their handful of trade candidates.

The Red Wings already used one of their three salary retention spots on Richard Panik, so that will certainly complicate things at the trade deadline for the next two seasons, as Panik's deal had two years remaining. Due to the continued flat-cap this season, any trade involving a cap hit over $2mm may require retaining cap hit, or taking a bad contract back, so it will make things challenging for Stevie, as just about anybody being moved will fit this bill.

Nick Leddy - while many of us were skeptical of Yzerman to give up a second rounder for Leddy, here is the reason he did. It's entirely possible that the Wings could end up fetching a first round pick for him at the trade deadline. Columbus was able to get a first rounder each for David Savard and Nick Foligno, plus a third and fourth, respctively. Leddy would fall into the same area value-wise as those two, and depending on the season he has, could return close to the same. He may not come with the additional mid-round pick, but a first rounder wouldn't be out of the question. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy (he has done so throughout his career) and be productive, but the value the team could fetch is where spending the second rounder to acquire him made some sense, albeit with a bit of risk. Cap hit would have to be retained in any deal, and an intermediary club would likely need to be found to absorb 25% of his cap hit as well, just as in the Savard and Foligno deals last year.

However, if the team likes the chemistry, leadership, and fit, they could try to extend him. Realistically, it will be difficult for the team to acquire a similar player on the free agent market until the club really improves, so this may not be a bad way to go. Fewer assets for the future, but the mentorship of a more offensive player could be good for Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom, Edvinsson, and others in the next few years.

Robby Fabbri - The biggest struggle with Fabbri, once again, will be staying healthy. In his NHL career, he has yet to play in a full season, and the injury struggles are well documented. When healthy, he shows the ability to be a 25-25-50 guy. Coming off injuries, he clearly loses momentum, but when he's up to speed, he scores at better than a 0.5 point per game clip. There are some defensive deficiencies to his game, but for a contender looking to get some depth scoring in the top-9, he would be an attractive option. Like Leddy, some cap hit would have to be retained, but if he stays healthy, there's no reason he couldn't fetch a second rounder, if even in the 2023 draft (sooner would obviously be more valuable).

Like Leddy, if the Red Wings feel Robby is part of the future plans, they could still try to resign him. Regardless, all of this hinges on his ability to stay healthy.

Troy Stecher - With an influx of right-shooting defensemen about to inundate the Red Wings roster, it is safe to say this is probably Troy's last season in Detroit. He was one of the teams best players in terms of advanced statistics last season, but with so many promising young players (Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom), he simply doesn't seem to have a spot. There isn't much offense to his game, despite some dazzling plays in the world championships. He just makes the plays, and for a contender, that could be valuable.

His $1.7mm cap hit doesn't make a move prohibitive, but at that price, many contenders will likely be able to find a better player through a trade, even if that player is more expensive. At that time of the year, it comes down to the best deal a team can make with its cap space. So cap hit may need to be retained, or another partner found to make it work. At that point, retention spots may be better spent elsewhere.

Thomas Greiss - A trade involving Greiss would mean a few things. First, he picked up right where he left off last season. Even in a platoon situation, his numbers would rank high among the leagues top netminders. Second, he is not likely to be re-signed at seasons end. Third, and most importantly, Alex Nedeljkovic has shown he is the goalie it was believed he could be when he finished as a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, prompting a trade to the Red Wings and a two year, $6mm contract.

Greiss likely wouldn't command a big return unless he is carrying more of the weight, which would beg the question of why he's being traded in the first place. David Rittich snagged Calgary a third round pick last year, after a few seasons of reliable work. Using that as the comparison, Greiss may be able to fetch a second rounder, but cap hit would have to be retained somewhere.

Marc Staal - While he has a full no-move clause, I imagine he would waive it for a small handful of clubs with a legitimate shot at the cup. One of those would likely be Carolina, where his brother Jordan plays. Staal may not bring much back, and he falls into the same category as Leddy, where his leadership and mentorship may be valued more than what they bring back, with the rebuild headed into overdrive and another half-dozen defensive prospects waiting on the doorstep. He could probably bring a fourth or fifth rounder back with him, and the Wings would likely take whatever contract back that would open a roster spot for him. Modest cap hit at $2mm, but would still be tough without retention, and those two spots would beg for a better use.

Vladislav Namestnikov - We didn't see much offensively from Vlad in his first season in Detroit, but the ability to chip in a few goals is certainly there. What he did do was flex his defensive prowess, and at trade deadline time, there are bound to be teams looking to flex theirs, too. Unless we see a spike in his offensive output, he probably wouldn't bring back much, but a fourth or fifth rounder wouldn't be unreasonable. Like Stecher and Staal, his cap hit may make a trade difficult, a salary retention is likely better used elsewhere.

Sam Gagner - Gagner provided a veteran presence, and showed he could be a valuable depth forward. Despite his being a former top-10 pick, he was never able to stick at the top of a lineup. The offensive ability to obvious, but he just can't keep up with the pace these days. His ability to play reliable two way hockey as a fourth line center may make him a candidate, too. Not likely to bring back more than a fifth-sixth rounder, but a pick is a pick at this point.

Adam Erne - Erne showed exactly why Yzerman gave up a fourth round pick to bring him to Detroit upon his arrival. His 11 goals last season projects to 20 over a whole season. If he can continue what he did last season, he will certainly have some value going forward, and could likely bring back a second rounder. However, with one season left on his contract, he would probably need to bring back more than that for a trade to occur.

Tyler Bertuzzi - He is the type of player all teams want in the playoffs, and he could be on the tail-end of his prime by the time the Red Wings win a playoff series again. The rumors are swirling, but Yzerman knows he has an asset here. If the injury issues are behind him, Stevie would be wise hold out for a center prospect here. While Bertuzzi could likely command the kind of return that Mantha fetched, perhaps a bit less, he will still bring back a haul. That's where it become imperative for Yzerman and Co. to compensate for their lack of a lottery pick that would land them the sort of top center that has eluded them through this rebuild. Only a handful of teams have that sort of prospect, and not many of them are playoff teams.

If Yzerman is wise to only trade Bertuzzi (if at all) for the type of futures that have eluded them thus far (centers, centers, centers), a trade likely doesn't happen in season. At least this season.

All in all, if this past season is any indication, we may only see a few bodies moved. In all likelihood, we won't see another Anthony Mantha sized surprise, but seeing bodies moved for a second, third, or fourth round pick isn't out of the question. It is possible that a move is made to add another first rounder, but that would depend on the direction the team takes this year. The bigger the step forward, the lower that chance. A step backward, may increase the odds of trades, but that could impact the value the assets have in the first place.

I think Nick Leddy will bring a lot of value to the team, and they will try and hold onto him. I would suspect the team adds three picks at the deadline at this point, and none likely above the second round. If they end up not using their salary retention slots, which is probably unlikely, they may offer them to other teams as they did last year in the David Savard trade.

Trade Deadline 2021 Takes

The Red Wings made four trades in the days leading up to, and including, the deadline. Here is my take: 

Patrik Nemeth to Colorado for a 2022 4th Round Pick (COL)

This move is simply demonstrative of the economics in our game right now. A player (with retained salary) who may have fetched a third round pick, or even just an additional 6th or 7th round pick in the past, only brings back a 4th now.

Nemeth has been one of, if not the most consistent defenseman on the team the past two seasons. In fact, it wouldn’t be a long venture to say he’s been the most consistent player overall. Nothing flashy, but he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes either. He’s the type of player teams covet on playoff runs, especially when they come cheap. In Denver, he will be a minutes eater on the bottom four, on a team that already doesn’t give up much in their own zone.

The return for the Red Wings isn’t all that bad under the circumstances. With a flat cap for at least the next couple seasons, teams are shifting their priorities, and continuing to stock their pipeline is where focus is turning. Only the teams at the very top are really adding in a big way, think Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Washington (more on them later). And the 2021 (and even 2022) draft will be a whole lot more uncertain than in years past. A lot of teams will be operating with the same information they had for the 2020 draft, since the pandemic has limited games, travel, and much more. That’s a big factor. Having even a single extra pick, gives you another swing in the mid-rounds where teams may not have a great picture of some players whose seasons were cut short, or didn’t exist altogether (see: Ontario Hockey League).

Bottom line: A solid get for a legit cup contender in Colorado, and for Detroit, getting what they can for an expiring contract, another swing in an uncertain draft year. Grade: B-

2021 4th Round Pick (TBL) for 50% retention on David Savard’s salary $1,062,500

As part of a larger trade between Tampa Bay and Columbus (who were looking like they were winning the deadline deals until late Monday), Detroit became the intermediary to make it work. Another case where the economics just dictated the return. Last season, Toronto got a 5th round pick to retain some of Robin Lehner’s salary in the trade to Vegas. So in that way, the market was a little better, as the Leafs retained $2.5mm in cap hit in that deal. The Sharks also received a 4th in a deal involving a Columbus player when they retained $1,375,000 in cap hit to make the Nick Foligno trade work with Toronto. So realistically, Yzerman made out a bit better than the Sharks in what largely amounts to a mathematical transaction.

Bottom line: The Red Wings used their cap space as an asset, and got rewarded for it. Granted, it’s not on the Marc Staal level of reward, but it was unused space. It would have been disappointing had they used their final cap retention (teams can only have 3 retained cap hits at any given time), and still had a seemingly tradable contract on their books (i.e. Glendening, Bernier, Ryan-pre-injury), but they ended up not using all three, so this looks a little better. Grade: B

Jon Merrill to Montreal for Hayden Verbeek and 2021 5th Round Pick (OTT)

This one has me a bit torn. Jon Merrill has been a big reason why Detroit’s defense has been much improved from last year. He has ties to the area, was excited to be here, and seemed like a good overall fit for everyone. To ship him out for a 5th round pick seems a bit silly, as he seems like the kind of player that really helped to stabilize the back end, and brings a positive mentality to the locker room, which is critical when rebuilding through youth. So many kids coming in, sick of losing, without that presence, pretty soon you’re the Buffalo Sabres.

On the flip side of this, going back to the Nemeth trade, every pick this year is going to be a bit more of a shot in the dark than in past years, so obviously the value in the picks is there for the organization. And, not to be ignored, is the fact that this pick belonged to Ottawa, so it will be early in the 5th round, which would be a different story if it was Montreal’s own pick, or even a 5th rounder of a team expected to go deep in the playoffs, i.e. Toronto, Colorado, Washington, etc. Montreal gets a steady defender for their bottom 4, who can play minutes if necessary, for the modest spend of a 5th rounder.

Hayden Verbeek seems like a throw-in to this trade to take a contract off the books for Montreal. It gives them a little wiggle room down the stretch in that regard, but also brings the Nephew of Red Wings Assistant GM Pat Verbeek into the organization. He went undrafted after playing for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds of the Ontario Hockey League, has bounced between the ECHL and AHL the past few years, before a stop early this season in the Slovak Extraliga during the pandemic delayed start to the season. He likely won’t crack an NHL lineup regularly, so little value can be placed here outside of the contract space he opened up for the Habs.

Bottom Line: This one really underscores the value the organization is placing on all draft picks this year. While Merrill could be a candidate for an offseason reunion (historically speaking, it is unlikely), the push to get some draft stock for any and all assets is really prevalent here. And speaking to the ends of a possible reunion, the expansion draft throws a wrench into any contract extensions right now. A player like Merrill, with a year or two left on a contract, would be an attractive selection for the Seattle Kraken, just as he was for Vegas. So don’t expect many extensions to be signed prior to the expansion draft, unless the team plans to protect that player. There will likely be a whole slew of extensions doled out right after the event. Grade: C-

Anthony Mantha to Washington for Richard Panik, Jakub Vrana, 2021 1st Round Pick (WSH), and 2022 2nd Round Pick (WSH)

Whatever your feelings are on this one, ultimately this one is a statement by management. That statement? Level-setting, and managing expectations. If there is one thing that Anthony Mantha’s performance has taught us this year, it’s that the Red Wings are still a long ways from the playoffs, and even further from contending. There was a lot of debate whether Mantha, Bertuzzi, or Larkin will be around when the Wings are contending again, and even more skepticism over whether they will be in their primes. This comes down to simple math. With three years left on his contract, Mantha will be on the back half of his prime, and the Red Wings will likely be a fringe team for making the post-season. So why not get value now, when it can still be of benefit in the future? Since Mantha likely wouldn’t be an impact player when the team does finally contend again, the Red Wings get another swing in the first round. It’s not like good players don’t come out of the entire first round. In the two years subsequent to Mantha’s 2013 draft, the Bruins found David Pastrnak 25th in 2014, the Flyers found Travis Konecny at 24th in 2015, and the Hurricanes even found Sebastian Aho at 35th in the second round that same year. Just because Joe Veleno was taken with a late pick doesn’t mean this will end up the same way. Even in the top ten, you aren’t guaranteed to find a player who will even make it to the NHL, let alone stick. It’s another swing, and eventually you have to hit on some of them. Yzerman and Co. are playing the odds on drafting, and there’s a lot of business sense to making this move now, rather than waiting five years to have nothing to show for the primes of Mantha, Bertuzzi, and Larkin. The second round pick here is just icing on the cake.

To be realistic, the statistics between Vrana and Mantha are comparable. Granted, Vrana has been playing on a much better team, but he doesn’t get the power play looks that Mantha does. It isn’t crazy to think that Vrana’s numbers may suffer a bit, but then again, the added power play opportunity could help. He is a year and a half younger, too. Mantha could very well flourish with better players around him. Mantha has the size, speed, and strength to create his own opportunities, but that’s not really his game. Playing with a legitimate playmaking center in Backstrom or Kuznetsov could really help Mantha. In Detroit he has created opportunities muscling his way to the net with the puck, attracting multiple defenders to him in the process. Imagine what he could do with a little help. Washington gets a slumping scorer in Mantha who, nearly everyone believes, still has untapped potential. Playing on a potent offense, with quality playmakers, he could really thrive. As Alexander Ovechkin heads further into the twilight of his hall of fame career, Mantha has the opportunity to pick up some of the slack as Ovechkin’s production begins to fade. Whenever that happens. Vrana may never be an all-star, but he should provide a boost at 5-on-5. His power play ability will likely get more opportunities than he had in Washington, but Mantha was more productive with the extra man.

As for Panik, I have seen a number of people saying they don’t like his game. I’m not saying it’s not a fair assessment, I’m just saying you’re missing the point. Without moving salary, this deal doesn’t happen. He was placed on waivers/taxi squad to reduce his cap hit for the remainder of the season, and the additional $1,675,000 was needed for the dollar-in-dollar-out situation the Capitals are in. LeBrun makes a good point that one of the picks is the compensation to take Panik’s cap hit, which is a fair point, while it makes it look like less of a home run for Detroit. 

What’s most important here, is that Panik provides the Red Wings another body to meet the exposure requirement for the upcoming expansion draft. Prior to this trade, Frans Nielsen and Vladislav Namestnikov (and his measly $2mm contract) were the only forwards who met the exposure requirement, meaning they would both have to be exposed, unless another player suddenly came into the fray meeting all of the requirements for exposure. Enter: Richard Panik. This allows the Red Wings to protect a savvy veteran in Namestnikov with a club friendly $2mm deal for one more year (the exact kind Vegas ate up at their expansion draft). If the club feels better about Rasmussen or Erne after their recent runs, that could impact the decision as well, but for now it’s nice to have options.

Bottom Line: The Capitals net themselves a scorer with some untapped potential in Mantha. He can help carry the torch on past the Ovechkin years. It certainly came at a cost. The return was exactly what it was going to take to move Mantha, and a return that not many thought the Red Wings could get considering the season he is having. Vrana will be able to take on the minutes that Mantha vacates, and will add more speed to the team. He comes with his deficiencies, but should make up for the production lost from Mantha. Panik is the cog that makes this work from a business perspective for both teams. He helps Washington clear cap space to take back Mantha, and he gives Detroit another option in the upcoming expansion draft. The draft picks were coming in any deal for Mantha. The first was a necessity, the second is just gravy. Without the second, I would still think this is a solid trade for Detroit (considering the cap space they would have for the next couple years). The Red Wings get a similar player in terms of pure production, who is a year and a half younger. They get two picks, one in the first round. And they get some expansion draft flexibility. Grade: A

Overall, a deadline that may disappoint in the short term, but continues to set the draft table for rebuilding to continue there, the way championship teams are built in the cap era. Grade: B+