Contrasting management styles... UPDATED

It came as no surprise when Steve Yzerman announced, within days of his team's season ending, that head coach Jeff Blashill would not return. You couldn’t fault Blashill for the results the past few years.

After inheriting a 24 year playoff streak, and a roster seriously on the decline, the talent he had to work with was far from playoff material. His work molded a handful of prospects into productive NHLers. While those players began to take the next step, it looked like the team was about to turn the metaphorical corner toward playoff qualification.

Then the wheels fell off. A handful of injures, covid cases, and a player who couldn’t be bothered to be there when his teammates played in Canada, all took their toll. The goaltending that bailed out the defense nearly every night the first two months of the year started showing some growing pains. Ultimately, the team lacked the depth to compensate for any of this. And the compete level suffered. Too many games down the stretch saw the Wings getting out-shot 20-5 midway through the second period. And while they may have only been down a goal or two, the hole was dug. While it was promising to see that they could be competitive with a full roster, it was obvious that the roster needs a few more bodies to take the next step. What was more obvious, however, was their compete. Things were snowballing. One goal would lead to three, and the double-digit games started adding up.

So when Blashill was relieved of his duties, it was a surprise to no-one. The team needed a new voice. Someone who gets the most out of their players. Someone who can hold the players accountable. Someone who can deploy a quality defense. And someone who will still be able to nurture the young players on the club, as well as the next wave in the pipeline.

Having the coaching decision made quickly, gave the team early access to the coaching market. One that began to settle as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continued to unfold. And for a team that didn’t qualify, that’s the best-case scenario.

So let’s shift our focus. Another non-playoff club, the San Jose Sharks, waited until June 30 to relieve Bob Boughner and his staff of their duties. By this point, eight teams have officially filled coaching positions. Another, the Edmonton Oilers, removed the ‘interim’ tag from Jay Woodcroft. And a 10th team, the Winnipeg Jets, were to announce Rick Bowness as their new coach. The Sharks became the 11th team this offseason that will be naming a new coach, just as everyone else had filled their vacancies.

Why the sudden change?

A few things could be at play here. Either something really bad, the kind of thing that gets people “canceled” these days, happened amongst the staff. Someone that the organization really likes became a possibility. Or they just waited too long to make the decision. One thing is out of your control, one thing is unexpected, and the last is 100% on management.

To me, I don’t see anyone earth shattering that suddenly hit the market, save for Tampa assistant coach Jeff Halpern. We obviously don’t know what happened behind closed doors, but it seems to me that this is a team that just waited way too long to announce their new direction, and as a result, missed out on all the great candidates on the market.

Granted, the Sharks are a team that likely won’t be competitive for a while. They have a handful of really terrible contracts that they won’t be able to move. No real prospect pipeline, since they shipped it away for Erik Karlsson. And really only two stars of note. Not the most attractive situation for any coach, which makes this decision all the more baffling. This is the kind of thing that should really piss-off ownership. Unless it was something outside the team’s control.

Steve Yzerman was deliberate, made his decision quickly, and got a solid candidate in Derek Lalonde. The Sharks management is looking questionable at best. And at this point, there is no guarantee they will end up with a better coach. The difference in management styles is stark here. It’s not like the Sharks were a playoff team who failed to show up. They didn’t even make it. If I’m the owner, I don’t like the decision. Not to mention, it being by interim GM Joe Will.

While the Wings are still early in the rebuild, and in Steve Yzerman’s tenure, I’ve yet to find a decision that you could really question like this. It’s nonsensical to me that they could be so laid back, and wait so long before a change. Now they have no coach heading into free agency, so the team just kicked the can down the road another year. Sure, it’s the GM that ultimately signs the players, but coaches have a lot of influence as to whether or not they will fit their style.

A big swing and a miss by the interim GM in San Jose, and things like this reassure me that Yzerman is one of the best.

UPDATE 2022/07/05 - it appears Mike Grier has been named GM in San Jose. He will begin his tenure with a challenging coaching hire, with the carousel of candidates mostly settled. This is far from an attractive position, with the club hamstrung with cap issues for the foreseeable future.

There is one interesting connection here though... Mike Grier and Tampa Bay assistant coach Jeff Halpern played together with the Washington Capitals from 2002-04. Could Halpern take this opportunity to move into a head coaching role?

Another day, another loss...

In what was a fun game to watch, the Red Wings lost again to the Minnesota Wild, 6-5 in a shootout.

The Wings once held a 4-2 lead in this game, and their ability to protect leads is clearly non-existent. Lucas Raymond and Jakub Vrana both had two goals. Nick Leddy had the playmaker with 3 assists, and Joe Veleno added two of his own. Offensively is was a solid night. Nick Leddy looked particularly impressive on his assists, with a beautiful spin move on Ryan Hartman to set up Lucas Ramond's first goal on the night.

Alex Nedeljkovic looked much better, and was clearly the better goalie in this one. That's not saying much though. The Wild goaltending has been relatively atrocious this season, and for a team with aspirations for contention in the postseason, if they don't find a goalie before the trade deadline, they could be in real trouble. Unless Cam Talbot of Kaapo Kahkonen go on a serious run, neither is currently capable of backstopping a team to the Cup.

Back to the Wings, the defense hasn't been there the past few weeks. I mean, it hasn't been there most of the season, but it's been worse recently. A third straight game surrendering five-plus goals, is clearly an issue. After his minus-six performance against Arizona, Gustav Lindstrom sat this one out, but he was far from the only issue in that game. Jordan Oesterle and Nick Leddy were both minus-four against the Coyotes, and both bounced back in some regard in this game. Leddy with the aforementioned playmaker, and Oesterle with the game-tying goal with just under three minutes remaining against the Wild to send it to overtime. Troy Stecher pulled into the lineup in Lindstrom's place, and was minus-one. At some point, I would expect Olli Juolevi to see game action, and I expected him to pull into the lineup in Oesterle's place against the Wild, but with bounce-back efforts from Leddy and Oesterle it's increasingly unclear when Juolevi will make his debut in the winged wheel.

The line of Veleno, Vrana, and Zadina was making noise every time on the ice. Filip Zadina made a really good inside-out play on Matt Dumba to get behind the Wild net, where he eventually found Oesterle for the tying goal. Zadina got hammered at the Arizona blue line late in the game Tuesday when he was trying to carry the puck deep. I thought at the time, that he may never be that kind of "inside" player. This was a perimeter play, but a darn good one. Zadina strikes me two different ways offensively. One, he can't carry the puck through traffic. That's ok, very few players can. But when he gets the puck in traffic, he has a phenomenal shot, and he's clearly had some bad puck luck there this year. On this play however, he showcases the other side of his offensive ability, where he can make a move on the perimeter, and look for an open teammate. I do think there's something to the statement that he's more of a perimeter guy, but I still think there's more to his game when he gets the puck on his stick in the slot. That shot is just far too good.

While the VVZ line was good, there were a few names that I didn't really notice. Captain Dylan Larkin and linemate Tyler Bertuzzi were held pointless on the night, a rarity when this team scores five goals.

Robby Fabbri was also quiet before leaving injured in the second period. The team believes he has a torn ACL, which would end his season. Word is, this is NOT the same knee in which he had previously torn his ACL.

Overall, the defense needs to be better. It will be interesting to see how they cope with the loss of Fabbri. The team has no real scoring options in Grand Rapids, aside from Jonatan Berggren, and it would be mildly surprising to see him brought up before he is truly dominating at that level, as the team has said in the past. Coupled with the impending trade deadline, which could see a small handful of guys leaving the club, the next couple weeks figures to be interesting.

Decisions, decisions...

 As we approach the halfway point of the season (assuming we make it the full 82 games), the Wings have some decisions to make with regards to personnel. I will examine the pros and cons of each.

1. Nick Leddy - at the beginning of the season, it was a foregone conclusion that he would be dealt. As the Wings overachieved, that became less certain. His numbers are down from last season, but he also isn't getting much powerplay time. On a contender, his offensive abilities, and ability to play big minutes are coveted by any team. I thought there may be a chance he could fetch a first rounder if his production remained strong, but that isn't the case at the moment. He should probably still net a second rounder, but that's where the club needs to decide if they see him having a future with the club. Yzerman has indicated he doesn't want to harm the morale of the team down the stretch, but everyone has their price.
   
   I'm sure you all have heard by now that the Red Wings will have some issues on the left side of the blue line next year, with only Jordan Oesterle under contract. Seeing as he's a 6-7 defenseman, so they could have as many as 3 open spots. Marc Staal figures to be one of them, as the team covets his leadership, and mentoring abilities with the younger players. So there's still two spots left. Odds are the team wants veterans to fill them, as Simon Edvinsson would likely not be a lock to fill a spot, he would probably need to take it from someone. This is likely an area the Wings look to fill in free agency, or via trade. With a flat-cap, there are a handful of teams who will be looking to part with capable players with bloated cap hits.
   
   There is certainly a case for Leddy to be back in a similar role. The club just needs to decide on the value of a second rounder, versus keeping Leddy in the system. Players traded at the deadline rarely return to the former club. Not that it doesn't happen, just rarely. We hear it every year, but I can't even recall the last time it came to fruition.
   
   
2. Vladislav Namestnikov - with significant ties to the area and a team friendly salary, it seems like a good fit to keep him in the fold, if he can be extended. He is enjoying wearing the Winged Wheel, and is having a strong season. He brings a lot of positives to the team, and there is also some very recent history of him in trades to know his value in such a deal. He has twice been traded for a fourth rounder, so that is what he can be expected to fetch. Not worth shipping out, in my opinion, but if a third rounder was suddenly offered, or a higher pick if the Wings took back another contract (or retained salary), it may change Stevie's mind.
   
   
3. Filip Zadina - with the team still trying to figure him out, this seems unlikely. The return would likely be someone else's reclamation project, and since the team is in need of scoring forwards, it wouldn't make sense to take back a defenseman when Z fits the needs of the team. And besides, his 200-foot game has come a long ways, so he clearly has a future in the NHL, it's just which line he will be on.
   
   
4. Michael Rasmussen - you can count me amongst the people who are ready to pull the plug on this experiment. The only part of his game that has rounded out, is his ability to take faceoffs. A few times this season, he has been put out in overtime to take a faceoff, then immediately come off the ice. Just last night, I watched him try to turn a corner against the Flyers D, putting his shoulder down, and just getting bowled over. For a guy who's 6'6" he just loses way too many physical battles. Outmuscled every night when just fighting for space. He needs to win those battles to create offense, and it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. His skating is still not great, and there's no one part of his game that is really above average. If another team makes an offer, I would probably be listening if I am Yzerman. If the return is a reclamation project, so be it. The Red Wings are stacked with fourth-line centers at the moment, so I'm not sure they are losing out here. His contract signed in the offseason may make him less tradable.

All in all, I don't expect a lot of activity. If anything, the team may end up being a third third party brought in to broker a trade by retaining cap-hit on another deal. Unfortunately, the team is already retaining cap-hit on Richard Panik's deal, so they only have two retention slots for this season and next. So one for Leddy, and a second for the highest bidder.

Slotting Every Spot in the Lineup

Here is where I believe every player on the Red Wings roster currently slots into the lineup.

Key: Green - strong fit, Yellow - average fit, Orange - weak fit, Red - no player who fits

Following on my last post, there are a number of holes that need to be filled, before the Red Wings push to be in contention, and those are shown in RED. When those holes are filled (and the ORANGE spots are eliminated), Jeff Blashill will go from being evaluated based on player development, to one who is evaluated based on team performance.

The most glaring holes here, are on the second line. While Lucas Raymond or Jakub Vrana could both fill in on the first line, neither is currently a true top line player (right now). Raymond could very well develop into one, but for now, he isn't there yet. Both of these guys are solid top-6 wingers. Another top-line winger will be needed to contend.

On the third line, we find two guys that are currently on the second line, Robby Fabbri and Pius Suter. They are performing capably, but are subpar when stacked up against contenders. Zadina is the wild-card here, as he seems to have offensive potential, but had yet to see results. Vlad Namestnikov is a capable third-liner with some ability to fill-in elsewhere, but his offensive ability is limited.

The fourth line is chock full of a hodge-podge of centers that don't really have an NHL identity. In my last entry, I discussed Michael Rasmussen's struggles to stick to a role, as well as Joe Veleno's inability to find one. The only guy who clearly has a clear future on this line is out injured, Mitchell Stephens. After a solid season last year, Adam Erne has disappeared. He is serviceable for an energy role.

On defense, we have another glaring hole on the top pair. Moritz Seider is a clear top-2 d-man, and plays it every night, but he needs help. Marc Staal and Danny DeKeyser have filled in there this season, but neither is a top-4 defender, with the latter probably not being an NHL caliber player anymore. Nick Leddy remains a capable puck-moving defenseman, but his ability to eat minutes isn't what it used to be. He remains a top-4 for his puck moving, but is a liability in his own zone.

Filip Hronek is also a capable puck-mover, but since he moved to the second pair (and matching up against opponents second line) his defensive numbers have failed to improve. His offensive has improved, if you consider his decrease in power-play time.

On the third pair, we have two solid players on the right side. Neither provide a whole lot of offensive upside, despite good instincts, but both can eat minutes. The left side, is another story. Marc Staal is clearly valued for his leadership, and physical presence, but has lost more than step since his prime. He is a capable third pair guy, but nothing more. Jordan Oesterle has filled in admirably this season when injuries have hit, but he has never played a full season, and isn't what most would consider a minutes-eater. He can step in when needed, but is a 6-7th d-man.

In the crease, Thomas Greiss has taken a substantial step in reverse this season. There was cause for optimism when he finished last season on a tear. However, age may be taking it's toll, and a stop-gap backup for Nedeljkovic may be needed. Ned has cemented himself as the team's starter, and has the look of a top-10 netminder in the NHL.

When should I start eating my words?

I'll be honest... I didn't get to watch the whole game last night, but man, the Red Wings are looking like a tough team to beat. This team is starting to show some swagger, and a confidence not seen since Jeff Blashill took over at the helm.

I was beyond skeptical of their ability to contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they did. For the most part, they managed to keep them to the outside, limiting the quality shots. They are getting timely offense from up and down the lineup, with Namestnikov scoring two. He now has 7 on the year in just 14 games, while he had 8 all of last year in 53 games. These are the kind of bounce-back seasons the Red Wings need to move the needle on the rebuild. We all knew there was more to Vlad's game than the 8 he scored last year, and I'm sure there will be a down stretch, but he was able to score on a night when the top line wasn't clicking.

Nedeljkovic had his best game as a Red Wing, shutting the door when the barrage did come in the third. The Red Wings showed up on time for this one, something I lamented in my last post. They were out in front from the start, and maybe it's the big-game motivation that got them there. This is how they need to show up every night.

I don't expect them to win every time they face a top team, but this was a welcomed change from game one where they blew two separate three-goal leads to the Lightning. This team is battling, and has me eating the words I wrote just before yesterdays game. I am very cautiously optimistic about this team. The infusion of immensely talented youth, coupled with some savvy veterans continues to pay dividends, and I can't wait to see how they follow it up tomorrow. We are now 20% of the way through the season, and this team is looking like they belong right where they are.

Here's to hoping I am wrong...

Out of the gate it looks like 3-4 of my preseason predictions could be wrong. I'm not all that disappointed, though. Let's review:

1. Moritz Seider is a finalist for the Calder Trophy
• I don't think this is too far fetched. He is showing why he was defenseman of the year in the SHL last season. Big, mobile, and can handle the puck.
• There will be speed bumps, but he will be a massive upgrade to the Wings' D-corps in the short and long term.
• He should score 30-35 points, manning the second powerplay unit.
2. Dylan Larkin will have a bounce-back season
• He will lead the team in points, with 50-60.
3. Lucas Raymond will score less than 45 points
• He looks poised to start the season on the top line with Larkin. He will provide some pop at times, but I fully anticipate the 82 game grind to take a toll mid-season, and he will slow down. The Olympic break could be a godsend for him, as it could be just the break he needs, just when the grind usually gets to the younger players.
4. Pius Suter scores 50+ points
• Honestly, I think Larkin gets more of the minutes early, but I think Suter will eventually supplant Larkin as the top center. Whether that's this year or next is another story.
5. Thomas Greiss plays more than 60% of the games
• While I think Alex Nedeljkovic has a whole lot of talent, I do think he will come back to earth a bit. Thomas Greiss had a fantastic second half last year, and I think he continues that, now that he is familiar with the defense. I think this will be something of a platoon situation, with the team riding the hot hand, but I think Nedeljkovic will be 1a rather than number 1.

Lots to digest, but some thoughts so far on each one:

1. At this point, Moritz Seider is probably neck and neck with his own teammate for the Calder. Lucas Raymond leads all rookies in points with 14 in 13 games, but Seider's all-around play has been something special, and he leads rookie defensemen in points with 10, to Bowen Byram's 8 (albeit in three more games). Though, it should be noted that Byram is shooting at 17.7% in the early going, and that isn't likely to be sustained over 82 games. Where I may end up being dead wrong, is with Seider having only 30-35 points this season, as he is currently on pace for 63 points. I expect both him and Raymond to cool down a bit, but the early results are encouraging. Mo started on the second power play unit this season, and has already been promoted to PP1, which is a testament to his underrated offensive abilities. He is never going to be Cale Makar (whom I am quickly establishing as the gold standard for talented defensemen), but he is no slouch with the puck on his stick, and he can lead a rush with authority. Playing on a rejuvenated PP1 has clearly been a big reason for his early offensive output.
2. Larkin is already showing signs of a bounce-back season, but the way things are going, he my not lead the team in points. Obviously, one injury can change everything, but if he continues his strong play and ends up not leading the team in points, I don't think that's going to be a bad thing. The team needs as many point producers as they can get.
3. Welp, I am looking dead wrong here. Lucas Raymond is currently on pace for 88 points. Wowza! Now, maybe I've seen too many rookies come in and get off to hot starts with the Red Wings (only to see them cool down and/or never build on it) to have much confidence here (Brunner, Jurco, Sheahan, Athanasiou, Frk, Nyquist, Cholowski, Brendan Smith), but something tells me he will cool off drastically at some point. Raymond and Seider will both likely have a bumpy patch this year, but there's no arguing they are both immensely talented players with bright futures ahead of them.
4. I think this one is still very doable. Suter got off to a bumpy start in the first five to six games, as he's adjusted to new teammates and systems. The skill is there, and the puck seems to follow him around a bit, which isn't a bad thing with his instincts. It's taken him a bit to get his footing, but the past five games he has looked very good, and whomever he's playing with, they seem to have good chemistry, and the ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone. They aren't always getting the scoring chances, but pinning the other team in their own zone is never a bad thing.
5. Save for one game where he misplayed a couple pucks, Greiss has been outstanding. Nedeljkovic had a rough first few outings, but has since righted the ship, and the two find themselves in a 50/50 timeshare. The team has two netminders that can answer the call on any given night, and that is quite a luxury. If one starts to struggle, the other will pick up some starts in the meantime, as the team will ride the hot hand. This one could go either way if one starts to struggle.

While the team got off to a hot start, they are showing signs of cooling. On the nights when the NHL's lone unvaccinated player isn't around to help out his teammates, the difference is stark. The teams' two rookie skaters have looked outstanding, but there are questions as to whether their performance can be sustained over a whole season. Odds are, they experience some growing pains at some point.

For Seider, those growing pains could be seen as soon as tonight, as he is tasked with holding down Connor McDavid and his fellow countryman Leon Draisaitl.

For Raymond, his shifty puck handling has been impressive, and an improved power play overall has helped him produce.

The power play looks completely different from last season. The Tanguay effect is evident. Last season, teams didn't respect the Red Wings on the power play. Mantha was the only guy who was respected to the point where they wouldn't just swarm him when he had space with the puck. The answer to aggressive penalty kills? Faster puck movement. The Wings are moving the puck very quickly with the man advantage, rarely having one guy able to hang onto the puck for more than a second or two. Teams are still aggressive when on the kill, but the Wings are managing to hang on to the puck much better this time around, and the quicker puck movement is impressively helping.

All of the success early is also being done without the guy expected to lead the team in points before camp started, Jakub Vrana. He is likely out at least another 3 months, but if the team continues on it's current trajectory, he could be a welcomed boost to a club currently hovering around .500. The early results are unexpected, yet impressive. The ability to stay in games continues to improve, and the knack for battling back is making for a lot of late game intrigue.

The one area that continues to leave me puzzled is the occasional period where the Wings seemingly don't show up. Getting tripled or quadrupled up on shots in a single period is still an issue at times, and a reflection of the coaching staff's continued inability to successfully implement strategy changes on the fly. After an intermission, the strategy typically changes and we see a different team, but at some point all those chances are going to start ending up in their own net.

It's been a fun start to watch, and if it holds, it could move the rebuild timeline up a bit. If it can be sustained, I am more than happy to be wrong in a lot of my projections here.

Potential deadline movers, and the assets they could fetch

Looking forward to the 2021-22 season, the foregone conclusion is that the Red Wings will again be a bottom-10 team. While many of us eagerly await the upcoming year, if only to see if the team's prized prospects can take that 'next step,' I will take a look forward to the trade deadline and what the team may be able to fetch for their handful of trade candidates.

The Red Wings already used one of their three salary retention spots on Richard Panik, so that will certainly complicate things at the trade deadline for the next two seasons, as Panik's deal had two years remaining. Due to the continued flat-cap this season, any trade involving a cap hit over $2mm may require retaining cap hit, or taking a bad contract back, so it will make things challenging for Stevie, as just about anybody being moved will fit this bill.

Nick Leddy - while many of us were skeptical of Yzerman to give up a second rounder for Leddy, here is the reason he did. It's entirely possible that the Wings could end up fetching a first round pick for him at the trade deadline. Columbus was able to get a first rounder each for David Savard and Nick Foligno, plus a third and fourth, respctively. Leddy would fall into the same area value-wise as those two, and depending on the season he has, could return close to the same. He may not come with the additional mid-round pick, but a first rounder wouldn't be out of the question. Obviously, he needs to stay healthy (he has done so throughout his career) and be productive, but the value the team could fetch is where spending the second rounder to acquire him made some sense, albeit with a bit of risk. Cap hit would have to be retained in any deal, and an intermediary club would likely need to be found to absorb 25% of his cap hit as well, just as in the Savard and Foligno deals last year.

However, if the team likes the chemistry, leadership, and fit, they could try to extend him. Realistically, it will be difficult for the team to acquire a similar player on the free agent market until the club really improves, so this may not be a bad way to go. Fewer assets for the future, but the mentorship of a more offensive player could be good for Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom, Edvinsson, and others in the next few years.

Robby Fabbri - The biggest struggle with Fabbri, once again, will be staying healthy. In his NHL career, he has yet to play in a full season, and the injury struggles are well documented. When healthy, he shows the ability to be a 25-25-50 guy. Coming off injuries, he clearly loses momentum, but when he's up to speed, he scores at better than a 0.5 point per game clip. There are some defensive deficiencies to his game, but for a contender looking to get some depth scoring in the top-9, he would be an attractive option. Like Leddy, some cap hit would have to be retained, but if he stays healthy, there's no reason he couldn't fetch a second rounder, if even in the 2023 draft (sooner would obviously be more valuable).

Like Leddy, if the Red Wings feel Robby is part of the future plans, they could still try to resign him. Regardless, all of this hinges on his ability to stay healthy.

Troy Stecher - With an influx of right-shooting defensemen about to inundate the Red Wings roster, it is safe to say this is probably Troy's last season in Detroit. He was one of the teams best players in terms of advanced statistics last season, but with so many promising young players (Hronek, Seider, Lindstrom), he simply doesn't seem to have a spot. There isn't much offense to his game, despite some dazzling plays in the world championships. He just makes the plays, and for a contender, that could be valuable.

His $1.7mm cap hit doesn't make a move prohibitive, but at that price, many contenders will likely be able to find a better player through a trade, even if that player is more expensive. At that time of the year, it comes down to the best deal a team can make with its cap space. So cap hit may need to be retained, or another partner found to make it work. At that point, retention spots may be better spent elsewhere.

Thomas Greiss - A trade involving Greiss would mean a few things. First, he picked up right where he left off last season. Even in a platoon situation, his numbers would rank high among the leagues top netminders. Second, he is not likely to be re-signed at seasons end. Third, and most importantly, Alex Nedeljkovic has shown he is the goalie it was believed he could be when he finished as a finalist for the Norris Trophy last season, prompting a trade to the Red Wings and a two year, $6mm contract.

Greiss likely wouldn't command a big return unless he is carrying more of the weight, which would beg the question of why he's being traded in the first place. David Rittich snagged Calgary a third round pick last year, after a few seasons of reliable work. Using that as the comparison, Greiss may be able to fetch a second rounder, but cap hit would have to be retained somewhere.

Marc Staal - While he has a full no-move clause, I imagine he would waive it for a small handful of clubs with a legitimate shot at the cup. One of those would likely be Carolina, where his brother Jordan plays. Staal may not bring much back, and he falls into the same category as Leddy, where his leadership and mentorship may be valued more than what they bring back, with the rebuild headed into overdrive and another half-dozen defensive prospects waiting on the doorstep. He could probably bring a fourth or fifth rounder back with him, and the Wings would likely take whatever contract back that would open a roster spot for him. Modest cap hit at $2mm, but would still be tough without retention, and those two spots would beg for a better use.

Vladislav Namestnikov - We didn't see much offensively from Vlad in his first season in Detroit, but the ability to chip in a few goals is certainly there. What he did do was flex his defensive prowess, and at trade deadline time, there are bound to be teams looking to flex theirs, too. Unless we see a spike in his offensive output, he probably wouldn't bring back much, but a fourth or fifth rounder wouldn't be unreasonable. Like Stecher and Staal, his cap hit may make a trade difficult, a salary retention is likely better used elsewhere.

Sam Gagner - Gagner provided a veteran presence, and showed he could be a valuable depth forward. Despite his being a former top-10 pick, he was never able to stick at the top of a lineup. The offensive ability to obvious, but he just can't keep up with the pace these days. His ability to play reliable two way hockey as a fourth line center may make him a candidate, too. Not likely to bring back more than a fifth-sixth rounder, but a pick is a pick at this point.

Adam Erne - Erne showed exactly why Yzerman gave up a fourth round pick to bring him to Detroit upon his arrival. His 11 goals last season projects to 20 over a whole season. If he can continue what he did last season, he will certainly have some value going forward, and could likely bring back a second rounder. However, with one season left on his contract, he would probably need to bring back more than that for a trade to occur.

Tyler Bertuzzi - He is the type of player all teams want in the playoffs, and he could be on the tail-end of his prime by the time the Red Wings win a playoff series again. The rumors are swirling, but Yzerman knows he has an asset here. If the injury issues are behind him, Stevie would be wise hold out for a center prospect here. While Bertuzzi could likely command the kind of return that Mantha fetched, perhaps a bit less, he will still bring back a haul. That's where it become imperative for Yzerman and Co. to compensate for their lack of a lottery pick that would land them the sort of top center that has eluded them through this rebuild. Only a handful of teams have that sort of prospect, and not many of them are playoff teams.

If Yzerman is wise to only trade Bertuzzi (if at all) for the type of futures that have eluded them thus far (centers, centers, centers), a trade likely doesn't happen in season. At least this season.

All in all, if this past season is any indication, we may only see a few bodies moved. In all likelihood, we won't see another Anthony Mantha sized surprise, but seeing bodies moved for a second, third, or fourth round pick isn't out of the question. It is possible that a move is made to add another first rounder, but that would depend on the direction the team takes this year. The bigger the step forward, the lower that chance. A step backward, may increase the odds of trades, but that could impact the value the assets have in the first place.

I think Nick Leddy will bring a lot of value to the team, and they will try and hold onto him. I would suspect the team adds three picks at the deadline at this point, and none likely above the second round. If they end up not using their salary retention slots, which is probably unlikely, they may offer them to other teams as they did last year in the David Savard trade.

Projecting the Red Wings 2021-22 Season

Thinking ahead to the start of the season, I thought I'd put down some ideas on how the possible outcomes could affect the rebuild...

Season outcome possibilities:

Good: Breakouts from a handful of key players, team finishes just below the playoff bubble.

• The likes of Suter, Seider, Vrana, and Zadina all take serious strides and establish themselves as impact players.
• Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all stay healthy, playing in 95% of team games.
• A couple other nice "surprises" happen. Mitchell Stephens has some untapped potential, and Jonatan Berggren, Lucas Raymond, and Joe Veleno could all see extended looks at the NHL level.
• Nedeljkovic repeats his "rookie year" success, and is a Calder candidate for second season.
• A couple of expiring contracts could be moved at the deadline. Most likely candidates would be Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher. I think the club would be interested in trying to hang onto Leddy if there is a fit, as I don't think you'd trade a second rounder for an expiring contract when you're rebuilding. If there is a trade to be made to bring a center into the mix, I think it could happen.

Bad: Continued regression from existing players, multiple injuries derail season, team slips into the bottom three.

• Suter struggles to score without elite linemates. Seider struggles at the NHL level. Vrana loses scoring touch he showed after trade. Zadina never finds scoring touch.
• Larkin, Fabbri, Bertuzzi all miss significant time.
• Nedeljkovic and Greiss both struggle.
• Fire sale. A number of Leddy, Stecher, Namestnikov, Bertuzzi, Hronek, Fabbri, Suter could be moved at deadline for futures. But, if the team is that bad, their value could disappear.

Expected: Growth from a few players, slides from a couple others, team still finishes in bottom 6-10 in league.

• I would expect Suter to struggle out of the gate, but eventually find some chemistry with a talented winger. Vrana should cool off, his shooting percentage will come back to earth from the 25% he was at after the trade last year, likely settling in around his careen 13.7% rate. However, he should also get close to 200 shots, if not more in a full season on the top line, putting him in the high 20s in goals for the season. Zadina will probably find a little more success than he had this year. It's hard to imagine his bad puck luck continuing around the net. There were more than a handful of times last season when the puck just didn't bounce his way. He has far too good of a shot to repeat a 6.2% shooting percentage. Over a full season, with some better puck luck, I don't see how he couldn't score 20 goals this season.
• Odds are, one of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi will miss some time. How much time will be what determines the Wings fate this season.
• Stephens seems destined to be the 3-4C. If he can find some of his untapped potential, that could become 2-3C. Joe Veleno seems most likely to stick in the NHL this season. If he can find some of the offense that had him as a top scorer in the QMJHL for two season, that would go a long ways for this team. Berggren and Raymond are not likely to play significant time, as the team wouldn't want to burn a year of their ELCs unless they tear it up. And by tear it up, I mean producing near a point-per-game clip. Unless one of the sticks with the club out of camp, it's not likely they would eclipse that 9 game mark unless they are torching the AHL, too.
• It probably isn't likely that Nedeljkovic has quite the same success this time around. Even Greiss struggled in his first season with the club, and there will be an adjustment period with a vastly different team in front of him. I mean, the best defense is a good offense, right? Greiss will probably look a bit more like the netminder we saw in the second half of 2021. He clearly adjusted, and looked like the guy the Wings knew they were getting. I would still plan on a platoon situation, but TG should be able to carry the weight if AN has any struggles adjusting.
• Trades involving Gagner, Namestnikov, and Stecher could occur at the deadline if the team doesn't envision any of them being re-signed. Same goes for Leddy. If Bertuzzi and Fabbri stay healthy, I could see a trade happening if it could improve the long term outlook. In any trade for a serious asset like this, I think Yzerman will insist on a young center or center prospect coming back the other way. 

We saw last season, that a mild improvement was possible even though a lot of things didn't go right. We saw some improvement from Rasmussen, and a partially rebuilt defense that really cut down opponents' shot quality. We hoped to see Larkin cement himself as a true number one center (which we now think may never happen), and form a dominant trio with Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha who was certain to become a dominant player. When the latter didn't happen, it prompted the trade for Vrana. 

With continued reinforcements on the back end, Seider should help even with some inevitable growing pains, there should be stability even if the forward group continues to stagnate. This really boils down to the forwards and their ability to both stay healthy, and take that next step in their development. Even with the health of Larkin, Fabbri, and Bertuzzi being in question, the team managed to stay competitive right down to the end. Credit the defense.

With a new assistant coach in Alex Tanguay, it gives some hope for the power play. Tanguay played on some tremendous power play units in his heyday, so having someone who has done it with the best, with go a long ways. It is important to note however, that it still comes down to the players on the ice. Nick Leddy will help in this regard. What I saw a lot last year, was teams just not respecting the Wings players with the puck on the power play. The only guy who was really respected with the puck was Mantha, the rest of the team would have a defender on them as soon as they got the puck, and it was a rare occasion when they could actually retain possession. The talent level necessary to beat guys one-on-one and create that aspect of respect when the Wings have the puck still isn't there, and with only one meaningful acquisition up front in Suter, the growth will have to come from within.

Being healthy will go a little ways toward picking up a few extra wins, but the big steps forward will have to come from increased production, resulting from the continued development of the younger players. This season will be a true test of the Red Wings development ability. It's not so much a reflection on Yzerman, but more on the struggles we saw under Holland, when the team regularly failed to draft and develop NHL talent (think, Emmerton, Oulette, Sproul). This season should answer the question, 'Can the Wings salvage anything of the Holland era?' (Rasmussen, Zadina, Veleno, and Berggren are all Holland picks with a lot of hype to their names...) There have been a handful of personnel changes in the development department since Yzerman took the reigns, but it's still too early to tell the results as no Yzerman draft pick has played an NHL game yet. That should change early this year, with Seider and Raymond both knocking on the doors of LCA.

Where do the Red Wings go from here?

 As the start of training camp is fast approaching, it's hard to ignore what's on the line for the Red Wings organization in the coming years, but let's take a look at it...

When Steve Yzerman arrived, he inherited more than half a dozen underperforming contracts, and a barren prospect cabinet. Since then, the shelves have been stocked, and the slate cleared, and now it's a matter of time. Time that will be spent grueling through practices, and hours watching video, trying to learn from mistakes.

To me the process is clear, and here is what I would want to see:

1. Let the players show they aren't ready. In the past, Ken Holland often bragged about being able to leave prospects in the minors until they were "over-ripe." Sure, while it's hard to decide when to insert a prospect into a winning lineup, the cost of waiting too long is wasting the prime development years. I look at Gustav Nyquist as a prime example here. For a team that was seeing repeated early playoff exits, and a faltering status as the perennial division champ, it made no sense to leave Gus stewing in Grand Rapids for another whole season and then some, even after he was already scoring at a point per game pace, as a reliable 2-way player in the AHL. If it looks like a player is ready, let them prove it. If they aren't ready, they will prove that, too. But the days of rewarding loyalty need to be a thing of the past, and reserving roster spots for players that had success five years ago over someone who can perform today, is exactly what got us to this point. The slate is cleared, and it needs to stay that way until the team is ready to contend, and the players earn their keep. More on that ahead.

2. Make the players earn their payday. Now, there are a few thoughts here, but let me break it down. In the KH era, he liked to pay players for 'how they will play in the future.' While it's certainly nice to get a guy locked in at a low rate if you know they will be tearing it up in the future, the likelihood of projecting that isn't all that great. One example of this is Gus Nyquist again, and while he somewhat lived up to the value of that contract, we go back to number 1 and the fact that his prime development years were behind him by the time he got to the NHL. There just wasn't any more time for him to grow. These days, very few players take serious development steps after the age of 23, and Nyquist was 24 when he finally became a full-time NHLer, and had already posted his career high in goals, which he has yet to match again.

Another player that is an example of all that went wrong toward the end of the KH era is Jonathan Ericsson. Similar situation, where he spent two and a half seasons in Grand Rapids before sticking in the NHL at age 25. He was also given a hefty contract at the time, that he never really lived up to. He was partnered with Niklas Kronwall, but never managed to find any sort of offensive element to his game at the NHL level, despite the organization touting the fact that he was a center in Sweden. He was then rewarded with another hefty contract extension that ended with him in Grand Rapids under Yzerman's watch. He never truly earned it, but was given a hefty deal with the thought that he would continue to grow. Theory quickly met reality.

3. Both the player and the team need to be in a position for the big payday. It is entirely possible that the rebuild falls flat at some point. Even if we had a couple bona-fide star prospects, all it takes is an injury or two for things to go awry. If that were to happen, the team would be wise not to overspend to hang onto a player who is expecting a big raise. Only when both the team is on an upward trajectory, as well as a good number of the players, should long term contracts be doled out. Just because a player has earned it, doesn't mean the team should muddy up the slate with big contracts, especially if they won't be able to give them help in the near term.

In the salary cap era, there really is a limited window for teams to be successful. You've got to have the majority of your roster in their prime, or really close to it.

That's what makes so much of a rebuild is about timing, and the worst thing a team can do is refuse to admit when the timing is just flat out wrong. The best thing about the Red Wings roster right now, is the unquestionable flexibility they have created. If you sacrifice that flexibility before you are truly ready to compete, you may as well just start the rebuild over. It's one thing to be in cap-hell if you're winning Stanley Cups (ahem, Tampa Bay), and it's another thing if you aren't winning at all (Chicago is a one thought despite past success, but Montreal is squarely in this boat and weren't even really contenders before or now after their run this past season). That must be avoided. A quality player can always be traded for futures, but to lock them up long term only to languish and take the luster off their game, doesn't really benefit the player or the team, and just takes away that aforementioned flexibility (Oliver Ekman-Larsson comes to mind, and don't even get me started on the Canucks wasting one of the two retained salary transactions that his contract can go through for only $990k in savings, clearly a short-sighted move).

4. Patience is key. More to the timing of it all, the pieces have to fall into place at the right time. If that means a well-timed acquisition, great! If that means trading Tyler Bertuzzi or Filip Hronek in the next season or two, to secure more futures for the extended rebuild, that's fine too. While the Red Wings are drafting some solid prospects right now, it's important to remember, it will be 3-5 years before many of them make it to the NHL, if they do at all. For those that do make it, it could be another 2-3 years before they really become an impact player and grow to their full potential.

Best case, it's probably 5 years before we know what we've truly got in Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson, and Sebastian Cossa (and goalies tend to take longer to develop anyways). So it's not happening overnight, and any later picks that pan out will take even longer. And injuries are just a part of the game that could derail the whole thing. We have a foundation, but it's entirely possible that the likes of Dylan Larkin, Bertuzzi, Hronek, and Robby Fabbri have either moved on, or are simply past their primes when the foundation becomes truly competitive.

And remember, Yzerman has done this before, and he's even traded some popular guys along the way. Sometimes you've got to admit when you need to kick the can down the road for a couple years because you just aren't there yet. Stevie has shown in the past he can make those decisions (remember Ben Bishop?).

It will take discipline in the long run to make it all happen. And there are certainly other factors, but if the Red Wings keep drafting well and can avoid the kind of mistakes and problems I've outlined here, then the future could be very bright.