Thoughts after the season...

 It was a long season with a lot to unpack, so I'm going to comment on all the nonsense I'm hearing:

1. "It's time to trade for a star..."
   
   I don't even know where to begin with this one. The bottom line, is Yzerman said from day one, he wants to build through the draft. So let's see where we are. Of Yzerman's draft picks here are their games played:
   
   Moritz Seider - 2019 - 164 games
   Lucas Raymond - 2020 - 156 games
   Elmer Soderblom - 2019 - 21 games
   Simon Edvinsson - 2021 - 9 games
   Marco Kasper - 2022 - 1 game
   
   Yzerman has made 40 picks through four drafts. Only five have played at least one NHL game, with only two playing a whole season. With that in mind, I can't really say the roster has been built through the draft.
   
   There are a number of draftees on the cusp, but you really need to see them through to the NHL before you can take a step forward. Leaving out the players listed above, on the cusp:
   
   Albert Johansson - 2019
   William Wallinder - 2020
   Carter Mazur - 2021
   Amadeus Lombardi - 2022
   
   I'd guess that at least two of those players make their NHL debut in 2023-24.
   
   You don't want to make a trade for a star, only to have two to three years of their prime wiped out by continued development and building. Looking at where the Red Wings pipeline is at now, they are probably two to three more years from being ready to make that splash. That can all change with a prospect breaking out. Keep in mind, Yzerman drafted Nikita Kucherov in the second round, and Brayden Point in the third round. Could Lombardi be one of those surprises?
   
   
2. "We need to draft forwards..."
   
   I get it, looking positionally at the Red Wings' prospect pipeline, it is certainly defense heavy, particularly on the left side. BUT, you still have to take the best player available. High-end players and prospects can always be traded to fill bigger needs down the road, but not if you don't have the best player. Look at Colorado, they had four fairly young defensemen on their cup roster in Makar, Toews, Girard, and Byram. Granted, Toews was 28 at the end of the season, but a huge contributor. Toews and Girard were both acquired for that exact reason.
   
   If anything, this example just goes to reinforce my point in number 1 above, where if Yzerman is filling out a roster with prospects, and we have three high-end defense prospects and few impact forwards, the team probably isn't ready to take a big step forward. Take the best player, if you get too many at one position, and have a chance to move the needle somewhere else, you can make a trade down the road. A better prospect is liable to be flipped for a better player down the road regardless.
   
   
3. Draft Lottery Luck?
   
   I have a whole bunch of conspiracy theories about the NHL draft and how the same (big market) teams always seem to 'win' it. The Rangers complained in 2020 about 'play-in' teams being excluded from the lottery, then they *magically* win the whole thing to get Lafreniere. The Blackhawks in 2019, in a serious cap crunch - and needing cheap talent to go with Kane and Toews, *magically* move up 10 spots to take Kirby Dach. Now, on the heels of a major abuse scandal, and perhaps more importantly - abysmal attendance and tv ratings, the Blackhawks strike lottery gold again, in the most anticipated draft since Connor McDavid was drafted in 2015.
   
   Say what you want about it, but look back at how many times both the Blackhawks, Devils and Rangers have moved up in the draft (hint: it's more than once). The NHL knows that the money is in the TV ratings, and having your biggest markets be competitive, is the best thing for TV ratings. And now to have an apparent faux pas on the lottery announcement show, indicating the TV announcers effectively knew who the pick was prior to the announcement, really draws into focus the scenarios above. I'm not saying the lottery is manipulated, but year after year, the league continues to fan the flames of suspicion.
   
   I digress... I said all of that to say this: whatever the reason is for the Red Wings not winning one of three straight lotteries in which they were favored, the bottom line is that it has absolutely affected their rebuild. Instead of getting a crack at a couple of guys that could seriously move the needle, they will need to amass a few more quality prospects elsewhere in the draft to make up for it.
   
   There is a talent gap at forward, no doubt, and particularly in terms of high-end talent. Lots of good players are picked in the 9-10 range regularly, with Timo Meier and Mikko Rantanen picked back-to-back in 2015 in those spots. All indications this year, is there will be a good forward available at number 9, but will it be the best player? Who knows. So that means the Red Wings have four options to fill out the pipeline: 1) lottery luck (see: above), 2) draft quality forwards from 9-16 the next couple seasons, 3) take the best player, and potentially trade down the road, 4) find a whole bunch of Kucherovs and Points in rounds 2-7.

Thoughts through 5 games...

Last year, the Red Wings got off to a strong start. It wasn't until injuries started to pile up that it all came unraveled, and Nedeljkovic had that rough January.

This year could be vastly different.

Here's five observations so far.

1.    Already with Fabbri, Bertuzzi, and Vrana on the shelf for an extended period, this year's team has the depth to make do. Still with two solid scoring units, and the 'tree line' that has been a force down low, even when they're not scoring.

The depth is the key takeaway. Last year, the first line did all the work in the scoring department. When they weren't scoring, they weren't winning. There are more people scoring this year. Forwards David Perron and Dominik Kubalik are looking like shrewd signings, as is Olli Maatta on the back end. Given Andrew Copp missed all of camp, it's only matter of time until he starts to join them. His timing is clearly off, as can be expected, and there's no greater indicator of that perhaps, than his 33.73% faceoff percentage, which is nearly 18% below his career rate of 51.4%. The past few years, he has been near or above 53%, with one small outlier being after his trade last year to the Rangers where he was just under 50% in 16 games. Perron has been as-advertised, both in production and leadership, and Kubalik has been the surprise scoring leader to this point. His 8 points in five games are the most to start a Red Wings tenure since Paul Coffey had 10 points in five games. Add it all up, and that's a whole additional scoring line this year.

The 'tree line' has been a force in the offensive zone. Oskar Sundqvist is the small man at 6'3" and has been showing some offensive ability so far. Michael Rasmussen has shown further improved skating, and some decent speed in open ice. In the Anaheim game, he won a foot race against swift-skating defenseman John Klingberg, only to have John Gibson poke-check him on the scoring opportunity. While Elmer Soderblom has been dazzling with his hands and hockey sense, his skating still needs to be polished. No doubt, at this point, he still looks like an NHLer, and hasn't really looked out of place.

2.    Special teams have been really good for the Wings. The penalty kill remains one of three in the NHL not to have yielded a goal to the opposing team's power play (STL-3gms, NYI-6gms). And while the power play was slow to get in a rhythm, they have really started to click. I remember the first few games, that one-timer from Perron was off every time. Three to four times on a single opportunity, it was just out of his wheelhouse. Clearly, having a dynamic player over there who can get that shot off regularly is an advantage. It finally started to click against Anaheim, and the ones that didn't go in were still creating havoc on the rebounds.

Interesting to note, Moritz Seider is not currently on the top power play unit. Filip Hronek is getting those reps, and their offensive statistics have reflected that. Seider, in general, has not been moving the puck as he did last year. His defensive game has still been rock-solid, but something to watch going forward.

3.    Strength of schedule is something to remember here. Their only opponent so far that made the playoffs last season, was Los Angeles. Currently, only L.A. and Chicago are in playoff positions (both wild cards in the West), and Chicago isn't expected to be close this year. So taking that into account, there is reason to temper expectations, but there is good reason to be optimistic, as they are still looking like a better defensive team this season.

4.    Physicality has been evident thus far. The fourth line has been hitting a lot, with even Pius Suter finishing checks. It's not something we've seen the past few years.

5.    Young guns haven't hit their stride yet. Filip Zadina had a solid camp, and he's been engaged in the play, but still hasn't translated it into offensive production. His second power play unit against Anaheim struggled to get much going, so that will be something to watch. While Zadina's struggles are well documented, Lucas Raymond's are not. Raymond, like Zadina, has been engaged, but just not getting the same great chances he has last season. He has also seen a lot of his power play time on the second unit, so they will need to find some consistency there to really start finding the scoresheet.

My thoughts on Chiarot

A whole lot of people don't like the Chiarot signing/contract. I get it, they probably overpaid a bit. But, what's important to remember here, is this is the final year of the flat cap. Next year, it starts going up again. Then he's only got three years left on the deal. So, sure, they overpaid, but the term is reasonable. Not to mention, this is just a stop-gap between now and when the bounty of defensive prospects begins to sign new deals.

The Red Wings' defenseman who was consistently hardest to play against last year (aside from Seider) was Marc Staal. Since he's gone, there is a clear hole back there. He can stick around for a few years and provide a stable veteran. For five years, this contract looks a whole lot worse, but for four, that's realistically the time it will take for the Wings to really start contending. All things considered, it's not all that bad, and it still fits (and further defines) the timeline that Steve Yzerman and Co. have on this rebuild.

Patrick Kane? Keep dreaming...

First off, I must admit, it would be great to see the Red Wings get a bona-fide star on offense.

Now let's quit dreaming...

Patrick Kane is a no doubter for the hall of fame, but the Red Wings aren't ready to compete yet. The Red Wings are certainly an improved team this year, but they are still far from being a contender, let alone making the playoffs.

Believe me, I like the team Stevie has put together, but there East is stacked with them. In the Red Wings division alone, Tampa, Toronto, and Florida are all shoo-ins, while Boston is still hanging around, and Ottawa is one team that arguably had a better off-season than Detroit. All in the Atlantic. Shifting to the Metropolitan, Carolina, New York Rangers, and Washington all seem like locks, and Pittsburgh is still hanging on there.

At best, one player of Kane's caliber would likely just put the Wings in contention for one of those final spots. Obviously, a couple of pleasant surprises along the way could help, but just because one player has a breakout year, that doesn't mean someone else won't take a step back (see: Adam Erne).

Cap space isn't really an issue here. Sure, some of you are still bitter about the Chiarot signing, but Chicago will likely want to hold onto some of Kane's salary to garner a bigger return, weaponizing their newly found glut of cap space. They will ultimately land at least one first-round pick for Kane, probably a pick and a prospect. Not a place the Red Wings are ready to go, especially with Kane on an expiring contract. Odds are, Kane will be on his last season or two when the Wings are truly ready to compete. As of right now, he's probably got four-five more solid ones ahead of him.

And another D... Mark Pysyk - 1yr 850k

It's clear to me that Yzerman has made D the priority. And for good reason. It was atrocious last season. Maatta and Pysyk seem to be holdovers on one year deals to bridge the gap to the next wave (Edvinsson, Albertsson, Wallinder). Curious to see what happens with Hronek/Lindstrom. Serious logjam shaping up back there. Will get worse if Edvinsson makes the team out of camp, but it all seems to suggest Simon will start the season in GR.

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed defenseman Mark Pysyk to a 1-year contract. pic.twitter.com/AvbA0fm86j

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 14, 2022

Depth signing... Austin Czarnik 2 year, 2 way deal - UPDATE (signings): Matt Luff for 1yr

Likely headed to GR:

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed center Austin Czarnik to a two-year, two-way contract. pic.twitter.com/Hz2t8j7euz

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed right wing Matt Luff to a one-year, two-way contract. pic.twitter.com/B80qJy9NQl

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022

Kubalik too... 2x2.5

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed left wing Dominik Kubalik to a 2-year contract. pic.twitter.com/hvFUpe7nAt

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022