Octopuck

Contrasting management styles... UPDATED

It came as no surprise when Steve Yzerman announced, within days of his team's season ending, that head coach Jeff Blashill would not return. You couldn’t fault Blashill for the results the past few years.

After inheriting a 24 year playoff streak, and a roster seriously on the decline, the talent he had to work with was far from playoff material. His work molded a handful of prospects into productive NHLers. While those players began to take the next step, it looked like the team was about to turn the metaphorical corner toward playoff qualification.

Then the wheels fell off. A handful of injures, covid cases, and a player who couldn’t be bothered to be there when his teammates played in Canada, all took their toll. The goaltending that bailed out the defense nearly every night the first two months of the year started showing some growing pains. Ultimately, the team lacked the depth to compensate for any of this. And the compete level suffered. Too many games down the stretch saw the Wings getting out-shot 20-5 midway through the second period. And while they may have only been down a goal or two, the hole was dug. While it was promising to see that they could be competitive with a full roster, it was obvious that the roster needs a few more bodies to take the next step. What was more obvious, however, was their compete. Things were snowballing. One goal would lead to three, and the double-digit games started adding up.

So when Blashill was relieved of his duties, it was a surprise to no-one. The team needed a new voice. Someone who gets the most out of their players. Someone who can hold the players accountable. Someone who can deploy a quality defense. And someone who will still be able to nurture the young players on the club, as well as the next wave in the pipeline.

Having the coaching decision made quickly, gave the team early access to the coaching market. One that began to settle as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continued to unfold. And for a team that didn’t qualify, that’s the best-case scenario.

So let’s shift our focus. Another non-playoff club, the San Jose Sharks, waited until June 30 to relieve Bob Boughner and his staff of their duties. By this point, eight teams have officially filled coaching positions. Another, the Edmonton Oilers, removed the ‘interim’ tag from Jay Woodcroft. And a 10th team, the Winnipeg Jets, were to announce Rick Bowness as their new coach. The Sharks became the 11th team this offseason that will be naming a new coach, just as everyone else had filled their vacancies.

Why the sudden change?

A few things could be at play here. Either something really bad, the kind of thing that gets people “canceled” these days, happened amongst the staff. Someone that the organization really likes became a possibility. Or they just waited too long to make the decision. One thing is out of your control, one thing is unexpected, and the last is 100% on management.

To me, I don’t see anyone earth shattering that suddenly hit the market, save for Tampa assistant coach Jeff Halpern. We obviously don’t know what happened behind closed doors, but it seems to me that this is a team that just waited way too long to announce their new direction, and as a result, missed out on all the great candidates on the market.

Granted, the Sharks are a team that likely won’t be competitive for a while. They have a handful of really terrible contracts that they won’t be able to move. No real prospect pipeline, since they shipped it away for Erik Karlsson. And really only two stars of note. Not the most attractive situation for any coach, which makes this decision all the more baffling. This is the kind of thing that should really piss-off ownership. Unless it was something outside the team’s control.

Steve Yzerman was deliberate, made his decision quickly, and got a solid candidate in Derek Lalonde. The Sharks management is looking questionable at best. And at this point, there is no guarantee they will end up with a better coach. The difference in management styles is stark here. It’s not like the Sharks were a playoff team who failed to show up. They didn’t even make it. If I’m the owner, I don’t like the decision. Not to mention, it being by interim GM Joe Will.

While the Wings are still early in the rebuild, and in Steve Yzerman’s tenure, I’ve yet to find a decision that you could really question like this. It’s nonsensical to me that they could be so laid back, and wait so long before a change. Now they have no coach heading into free agency, so the team just kicked the can down the road another year. Sure, it’s the GM that ultimately signs the players, but coaches have a lot of influence as to whether or not they will fit their style.

A big swing and a miss by the interim GM in San Jose, and things like this reassure me that Yzerman is one of the best.

UPDATE 2022/07/05 - it appears Mike Grier has been named GM in San Jose. He will begin his tenure with a challenging coaching hire, with the carousel of candidates mostly settled. This is far from an attractive position, with the club hamstrung with cap issues for the foreseeable future.

There is one interesting connection here though... Mike Grier and Tampa Bay assistant coach Jeff Halpern played together with the Washington Capitals from 2002-04. Could Halpern take this opportunity to move into a head coaching role?

Another day, another loss...

In what was a fun game to watch, the Red Wings lost again to the Minnesota Wild, 6-5 in a shootout.

The Wings once held a 4-2 lead in this game, and their ability to protect leads is clearly non-existent. Lucas Raymond and Jakub Vrana both had two goals. Nick Leddy had the playmaker with 3 assists, and Joe Veleno added two of his own. Offensively is was a solid night. Nick Leddy looked particularly impressive on his assists, with a beautiful spin move on Ryan Hartman to set up Lucas Ramond's first goal on the night.

Alex Nedeljkovic looked much better, and was clearly the better goalie in this one. That's not saying much though. The Wild goaltending has been relatively atrocious this season, and for a team with aspirations for contention in the postseason, if they don't find a goalie before the trade deadline, they could be in real trouble. Unless Cam Talbot of Kaapo Kahkonen go on a serious run, neither is currently capable of backstopping a team to the Cup.

Back to the Wings, the defense hasn't been there the past few weeks. I mean, it hasn't been there most of the season, but it's been worse recently. A third straight game surrendering five-plus goals, is clearly an issue. After his minus-six performance against Arizona, Gustav Lindstrom sat this one out, but he was far from the only issue in that game. Jordan Oesterle and Nick Leddy were both minus-four against the Coyotes, and both bounced back in some regard in this game. Leddy with the aforementioned playmaker, and Oesterle with the game-tying goal with just under three minutes remaining against the Wild to send it to overtime. Troy Stecher pulled into the lineup in Lindstrom's place, and was minus-one. At some point, I would expect Olli Juolevi to see game action, and I expected him to pull into the lineup in Oesterle's place against the Wild, but with bounce-back efforts from Leddy and Oesterle it's increasingly unclear when Juolevi will make his debut in the winged wheel.

The line of Veleno, Vrana, and Zadina was making noise every time on the ice. Filip Zadina made a really good inside-out play on Matt Dumba to get behind the Wild net, where he eventually found Oesterle for the tying goal. Zadina got hammered at the Arizona blue line late in the game Tuesday when he was trying to carry the puck deep. I thought at the time, that he may never be that kind of "inside" player. This was a perimeter play, but a darn good one. Zadina strikes me two different ways offensively. One, he can't carry the puck through traffic. That's ok, very few players can. But when he gets the puck in traffic, he has a phenomenal shot, and he's clearly had some bad puck luck there this year. On this play however, he showcases the other side of his offensive ability, where he can make a move on the perimeter, and look for an open teammate. I do think there's something to the statement that he's more of a perimeter guy, but I still think there's more to his game when he gets the puck on his stick in the slot. That shot is just far too good.

While the VVZ line was good, there were a few names that I didn't really notice. Captain Dylan Larkin and linemate Tyler Bertuzzi were held pointless on the night, a rarity when this team scores five goals.

Robby Fabbri was also quiet before leaving injured in the second period. The team believes he has a torn ACL, which would end his season. Word is, this is NOT the same knee in which he had previously torn his ACL.

Overall, the defense needs to be better. It will be interesting to see how they cope with the loss of Fabbri. The team has no real scoring options in Grand Rapids, aside from Jonatan Berggren, and it would be mildly surprising to see him brought up before he is truly dominating at that level, as the team has said in the past. Coupled with the impending trade deadline, which could see a small handful of guys leaving the club, the next couple weeks figures to be interesting.

Robby Fabbri out for season with torn ACL

Red Wings suspect Fabbri tore his ACL. Expected to be out the rest of the year
— Max Bultman (@m_bultman) March 11, 2022

A 9-2 reality check against the 'Yotes...

In his postgame presser, Dylan Larkin had one word to describe what went wrong, "everything."

And he's absolutely right. Not winning races to pucks, not winning the battles, numerous defensive lapses, goaltending gaffes. Last night had very little to like for the red and white.

The only positive, and I'll get it out of the way now, was the return of Jakub Vrana, who also potted his first goal. Glad to see him back, but unfortunately, twelve of him wouldn't have stemmed the tide of last nights game, especially as he looked gassed at the end of more than a few shifts.

But on to the rest...

The defense was horrid. The left side in particular, starting with Oesterle and Leddy was particularly bad, with a few missed coverages resulting in goals. Both were -4 on the night. Marc Staal was the only lefty that looked engaged all night who, along with his partner Filip Hronek, were the only blueliners who had a plus/minus better than -3. Staal was -1 and Hronek was even. In the age of advanced statistics, plus/minus is looked at less and less, but to me, in this game, it tells the story. Gustav Lindstrom was the guy on the right side that seemed to get burned a few times, and his -6 was worst on the team. Add to the defensive issues, that a few of the goals were on 3-on-2s, and it's obvious the forwards weren't doing their part to backcheck. Not to mention that Arizona defenseman Jakob Chychrun was able to score a goal in the goal-mouth, and it's clear the coverage wasn't there.

As bad as the defense was, the goaltending was probably worse. After the first period, Dominic Moore of ESPN+ pointed out that Alex Nedeljkovic was over-committing on the Coyotes goals. He went on to point out that it wasn't always the play immediately following where it cost him the goal, but the second or third after that. He was absolutely right. Ned overcommitted on Chychrun's first goal, by sliding across the crease prematurely, only to have the puck go right back the other way to Barrett Hayton who threw it on net, and Ned had to scramble for the Hayton shot and then couldn't recover for the rebound that Chychrun sent into the cage on a diving play. Chychrun should've been covered, but that's another story entirely. It didn't matter who was in net either, as Thomas Greiss gave up 2 goals on three shots, the first of which I thought was very weak, and not from a great angle. What should have been a glove save, was far too easy.

This is a massive reality check for the Wings. The best teams don't have nights like this very often, and the Red Wings have had a handful lately. Coming off a road trip that saw the Wings play some of the leagues best teams, and even a strong game against Carolina, there is no excuse for this effort that should have been a chance to get back on track.

Decisions, decisions...

As we approach the halfway point of the season (assuming we make it the full 82 games), the Wings have some decisions to make with regards to personnel. I will examine the pros and cons of each.

Nick Leddy - at the beginning of the season, it was a foregone conclusion that he would be dealt. As the Wings overachieved, that became less certain. His numbers are down from last season, but he also isn't getting much powerplay time. On a contender, his offensive abilities, and ability to play big minutes are coveted by any team. I thought there may be a chance he could fetch a first rounder if his production remained strong, but that isn't the case at the moment. He should probably still net a second rounder, but that's where the club needs to decide if they see him having a future with the club. Yzerman has indicated he doesn't want to harm the morale of the team down the stretch, but everyone has their price.

I'm sure you all have heard by now that the Red Wings will have some issues on the left side of the blue line next year, with only Jordan Oesterle under contract. Seeing as he's a 6-7 defenseman, so they could have as many as 3 open spots. Marc Staal figures to be one of them, as the team covets his leadership, and mentoring abilities with the younger players. So there's still two spots left. Odds are the team wants veterans to fill them, as Simon Edvinsson would likely not be a lock to fill a spot, he would probably need to take it from someone. This is likely an area the Wings look to fill in free agency, or via trade. With a flat-cap, there are a handful of teams who will be looking to part with capable players with bloated cap hits.

There is certainly a case for Leddy to be back in a similar role. The club just needs to decide on the value of a second rounder, versus keeping Leddy in the system. Players traded at the deadline rarely return to the former club. Not that it doesn't happen, just rarely. We hear it every year, but I can't even recall the last time it came to fruition.
Vladislav Namestnikov - with significant ties to the area and a team friendly salary, it seems like a good fit to keep him in the fold, if he can be extended. He is enjoying wearing the Winged Wheel, and is having a strong season. He brings a lot of positives to the team, and there is also some very recent history of him in trades to know his value in such a deal. He has twice been traded for a fourth rounder, so that is what he can be expected to fetch. Not worth shipping out, in my opinion, but if a third rounder was suddenly offered, or a higher pick if the Wings took back another contract (or retained salary), it may change Stevie's mind.
Filip Zadina - with the team still trying to figure him out, this seems unlikely. The return would likely be someone else's reclamation project, and since the team is in need of scoring forwards, it wouldn't make sense to take back a defenseman when Z fits the needs of the team. And besides, his 200-foot game has come a long ways, so he clearly has a future in the NHL, it's just which line he will be on.
Michael Rasmussen - you can count me amongst the people who are ready to pull the plug on this experiment. The only part of his game that has rounded out, is his ability to take faceoffs. A few times this season, he has been put out in overtime to take a faceoff, then immediately come off the ice. Just last night, I watched him try to turn a corner against the Flyers D, putting his shoulder down, and just getting bowled over. For a guy who's 6'6" he just loses way too many physical battles. Outmuscled every night when just fighting for space. He needs to win those battles to create offense, and it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. His skating is still not great, and there's no one part of his game that is really above average. If another team makes an offer, I would probably be listening if I am Yzerman. If the return is a reclamation project, so be it. The Red Wings are stacked with fourth-line centers at the moment, so I'm not sure they are losing out here. His contract signed in the offseason may make him less tradable.

All in all, I don't expect a lot of activity. If anything, the team may end up being a third third party brought in to broker a trade by retaining cap-hit on another deal. Unfortunately, the team is already retaining cap-hit on Richard Panik's deal, so they only have two retention slots for this season and next. So one for Leddy, and a second for the highest bidder.

Slotting Every Spot in the Lineup

Here is where I believe every player on the Red Wings roster currently slots into the lineup.

Key: Green - strong fit, Yellow - average fit, Orange - weak fit, Red - no player who fits

Following on my last post, there are a number of holes that need to be filled, before the Red Wings push to be in contention, and those are shown in RED. When those holes are filled (and the ORANGE spots are eliminated), Jeff Blashill will go from being evaluated based on player development, to one who is evaluated based on team performance.

The most glaring holes here, are on the second line. While Lucas Raymond or Jakub Vrana could both fill in on the first line, neither is currently a true top line player (right now). Raymond could very well develop into one, but for now, he isn't there yet. Both of these guys are solid top-6 wingers. Another top-line winger will be needed to contend.

On the third line, we find two guys that are currently on the second line, Robby Fabbri and Pius Suter. They are performing capably, but are subpar when stacked up against contenders. Zadina is the wild-card here, as he seems to have offensive potential, but had yet to see results. Vlad Namestnikov is a capable third-liner with some ability to fill-in elsewhere, but his offensive ability is limited.

The fourth line is chock full of a hodge-podge of centers that don't really have an NHL identity. In my last entry, I discussed Michael Rasmussen's struggles to stick to a role, as well as Joe Veleno's inability to find one. The only guy who clearly has a clear future on this line is out injured, Mitchell Stephens. After a solid season last year, Adam Erne has disappeared. He is serviceable for an energy role.

On defense, we have another glaring hole on the top pair. Moritz Seider is a clear top-2 d-man, and plays it every night, but he needs help. Marc Staal and Danny DeKeyser have filled in there this season, but neither is a top-4 defender, with the latter probably not being an NHL caliber player anymore. Nick Leddy remains a capable puck-moving defenseman, but his ability to eat minutes isn't what it used to be. He remains a top-4 for his puck moving, but is a liability in his own zone.

Filip Hronek is also a capable puck-mover, but since he moved to the second pair (and matching up against opponents second line) his defensive numbers have failed to improve. His offensive has improved, if you consider his decrease in power-play time.

On the third pair, we have two solid players on the right side. Neither provide a whole lot of offensive upside, despite good instincts, but both can eat minutes. The left side, is another story. Marc Staal is clearly valued for his leadership, and physical presence, but has lost more than step since his prime. He is a capable third pair guy, but nothing more. Jordan Oesterle has filled in admirably this season when injuries have hit, but he has never played a full season, and isn't what most would consider a minutes-eater. He can step in when needed, but is a 6-7th d-man.

In the crease, Thomas Greiss has taken a substantial step in reverse this season. There was cause for optimism when he finished last season on a tear. However, age may be taking it's toll, and a stop-gap backup for Nedeljkovic may be needed. Ned has cemented himself as the team's starter, and has the look of a top-10 netminder in the NHL.

Jeff Blashill's Grade... and what's missing

Helene St. James had an article yesterday for the Free Press here, talking about Jeff Blashill's value to the club. It gave me the idea to talk a little about the topic myself...

The bottom line with Blashill, is the development of young players. The team is seeing some positive results in that regard this year, but it isn't all roses. For this purpose, I will exclude Larkin and Bertuzzi, as they have mostly moved past the development phase of their careers, and have cemented themselves as the cornerstones of the franchise.

Plusses:

Moritz Seider - he has been everything that was promised, and more. While his offensive ability was never expected to be close to that of a Cale Makar, he certainly has been no slouch. Nothing fancy here, but rock solid play at both ends of the ice. He has become more comfortable as the season has progressed. He looks like a lock to be a top-2 defenseman.
Lucas Raymond - very much on the bubble at the outset of camp, Raymond impressed with his ability to play at the NHL pace, making impressive plays along the way. There have been some statistical ups and downs, but no reason to be skeptical of his play. He certainly has the potential to be a top line player, and is already a bon-a-fide top-6.
Alex Nedeljkovic - a widely cheered acquisition during the offseason, Ned has continued to build on his first rookie campaign last season with Carolina. He has won a number of games on his own, and is beginning to look like a goalie the Wings can rely on for the next 5-7 years, if they choose to.
Gustav Lindstrom - Similar to Seider, there is nothing flashy about Gus' game. He makes the smart plays, and good first passes to start breakouts. While it would be nice if he could find another offensive element to his game, to match his defensive prowess, history at every level suggests that may not come. He has never put up big numbers offensively, so his ceiling may be limited to how well he can shut down opposing attacks. For now, he is a solid 5-6 defenseman, but without that offensive side, may be hard-pressed to work his way into the top-4.

Even:

Filip Hronek - after what seemed like a couple of years where he looked like a top-4 defenseman, he has struggled somewhat in second pair duty. The offensive instincts are obvious, but considering Seider is typically seeing the other team's top lines, his defensive play is still an issue. His offensive output remains strong, especially considering he is no longer on the top power-play unit. With stronger defensive play, he is a 2-3 d-man. As it stands, he is closer to 4-5.

Minuses:

Joe Veleno - this is where I begin the parade of heralded Ken Holland picks that have failed to bear any fruit... Heralded as an NHL ready center, he got off to a decent start, with multiple points in his first 10 games. Since then, however, he has disappeared. Granted, he is seeing sparse offensive zone time on the 4th line, but what was notable in his first few games is his quick first couple steps and above average stick-handling ability. And while he has a quick first couple of steps, he seems to lack another separation gear when skating in a straight line. More quality time would benefit him, but what looked like an ability to create earlier on, has disappeared during his offensive drought. If he finds the offense, he could be a legit number 3 center, with the ability to play some on the power-play.
Michael Rasmussen - like Veleno, he was a talented pivot in junior hockey that has failed to take that "next step." While Veleno is only seeing his first meaningful playing time this season, Rasmussen has already provided an abundance of disappointment for Wings fans over the past four. With a 6'6" frame like his, he certainly gets pushed around a lot. He plays more like he is 5'10" rather than six and a half feet tall. Compared to a guy like Adam Erne who is listed at 6'1" and plays more like 6'3-4", Rasmussen rarely wins battles for space. He is not overly physical, frequently declining to finish a check on the forecheck, and hasn't taken that next step this season. Last year his skating was notably better, albeit still abysmal, but with so many shortcomings in his play, it's hard to see him fitting as more than a 4th line center. He can win faceoffs, but his defensive play isn't stellar, so his ceiling as a 4th liner may be limited. His ability to stick in the NHL will be 100% dependent on his ability to find offense, as he hasn't shown the toolkit to play a checking role. Even in a little bit of power play time, he fails to be disruptive in front of the net. Again, for such a big frame, not a good sign.
Filip Zadina - this is the one that I continue to be baffled by... He has a phenomenal shot, when given the space, and clear puck-handling ability. Unlike Veleno, he doesn't have a quick first couple steps, but like Veleno, also lacks that "separation gear." In the January 26 game against the Blackhawks, he had one shift where he created 3-4 chances, only to have MAF make a couple of spectacular saves. The ability to create is there, but his skating keeps him from driving the play himself. His shooting percentage is really low, which makes me think that he's had some bad puck-luck, but his career percentage isn't much better, even though the sample size is very small. He has been brought up as a change-of-scenery candidate, but all that would bring back is someone else's reclamation project. Given the Wings clear need for scoring wingers, it makes sense to keep him in the fold. If he starts to find the net - then great! If he can't find the net, he has still made sizable progress with other parts of his game to stick on any NHL roster... It's just a matter of where. For now, he is right where he should be, on the third line. If the offense starts to come, he could wiggle his way into the top-6.
Givani Smith - he hasn't made the offensive strides I thought were possible after his 16 game cameo last season. He has provided the advertised sandpaper to the team, but has been a bit of a wild-card in terms of discipline. It reminds me of Sean Avery's brief time with the team. There's an energy every time he's out there, but too often, it has ended with his team down a man. He has looked like a bubble player this season, after the team showed a vote of confidence by protecting him in the expansion draft over the summer. Right now, he's a 12-13th forward, but with more discipline and experience, the potential is there to be a 3rd liner, as he has some offensive ability.

Incomplete:

Mitchell Stephens - a guy who showed some good hands in junior, and some good jump in the preseason, he just can't catch a break. A significant 'lower-body injury' 16 games in, has him on the shelf until this spring. I liked his skating ability and his hustle, and despite being a 4th line center, looks like he may have a bit of offense to his game. He has shown offense at every previous level, just not in limited time in the NHL. Unfortunately, this extended absence doesn't help his cause. He is a 4th line center when healthy, and seems to have some ability to play a 3c role when needed.

All in all, a few young players have made significant strides, while a few have not. I don't think it's any coincidence that all of the minuses on my list were spillovers from the Ken Holland era. Holland consistently failed to draft and develop in the last 15 years of his tenure, leading the team's fall from grace. Every draft between 2015-2018 had a questionable first round choice. Granted, Zadina was a consensus top-10 pick in his draft year, but there were doubts about his game from the beginning, leading to him falling to Detroit number 6. Montreal famously passed on him in favor of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was widely panned from day one.

Aside from Anthony Mantha and Larkin, taken in consecutive drafts in 2013 and 2014, respectively, one would have to go back to 2000 when the team drafted Niklas Kronwall to find a first round pick who actually lived up to expectations. Brendan Smith and Riley Sheahan have managed to stick around the NHL, but both are depth players at best. Sure, Holland traded away scores of picks to keep the team in contention, but also bragged about their ability to mine gems from the late rounds. After Zetterberg in 1999, there haven't been many late round surprises. When the picks were there, they rarely panned out.

That said, you can't pin too much on Blashill. He is developing the players Steve Yzerman is giving him, and that's what Stevie wants to see. If at some point that stops, or the Stevie believes the team has the tools to take the next step and Blashill is failing to push them there, a change will be made then. But for now, the team is clearly lacking to proper players to take that next step, and Yzerman knows it.

In my next entry, I will examine how the roster is shaping up in light of the projections above. Stay tuned...