Octopuck

Robby Fabbri out for season with torn ACL

Red Wings suspect Fabbri tore his ACL. Expected to be out the rest of the year
— Max Bultman (@m_bultman) March 11, 2022

A 9-2 reality check against the 'Yotes...

In his postgame presser, Dylan Larkin had one word to describe what went wrong, "everything."

And he's absolutely right. Not winning races to pucks, not winning the battles, numerous defensive lapses, goaltending gaffes. Last night had very little to like for the red and white.

The only positive, and I'll get it out of the way now, was the return of Jakub Vrana, who also potted his first goal. Glad to see him back, but unfortunately, twelve of him wouldn't have stemmed the tide of last nights game, especially as he looked gassed at the end of more than a few shifts.

But on to the rest...

The defense was horrid. The left side in particular, starting with Oesterle and Leddy was particularly bad, with a few missed coverages resulting in goals. Both were -4 on the night. Marc Staal was the only lefty that looked engaged all night who, along with his partner Filip Hronek, were the only blueliners who had a plus/minus better than -3. Staal was -1 and Hronek was even. In the age of advanced statistics, plus/minus is looked at less and less, but to me, in this game, it tells the story. Gustav Lindstrom was the guy on the right side that seemed to get burned a few times, and his -6 was worst on the team. Add to the defensive issues, that a few of the goals were on 3-on-2s, and it's obvious the forwards weren't doing their part to backcheck. Not to mention that Arizona defenseman Jakob Chychrun was able to score a goal in the goal-mouth, and it's clear the coverage wasn't there.

As bad as the defense was, the goaltending was probably worse. After the first period, Dominic Moore of ESPN+ pointed out that Alex Nedeljkovic was over-committing on the Coyotes goals. He went on to point out that it wasn't always the play immediately following where it cost him the goal, but the second or third after that. He was absolutely right. Ned overcommitted on Chychrun's first goal, by sliding across the crease prematurely, only to have the puck go right back the other way to Barrett Hayton who threw it on net, and Ned had to scramble for the Hayton shot and then couldn't recover for the rebound that Chychrun sent into the cage on a diving play. Chychrun should've been covered, but that's another story entirely. It didn't matter who was in net either, as Thomas Greiss gave up 2 goals on three shots, the first of which I thought was very weak, and not from a great angle. What should have been a glove save, was far too easy.

This is a massive reality check for the Wings. The best teams don't have nights like this very often, and the Red Wings have had a handful lately. Coming off a road trip that saw the Wings play some of the leagues best teams, and even a strong game against Carolina, there is no excuse for this effort that should have been a chance to get back on track.

Decisions, decisions...

As we approach the halfway point of the season (assuming we make it the full 82 games), the Wings have some decisions to make with regards to personnel. I will examine the pros and cons of each.

Nick Leddy - at the beginning of the season, it was a foregone conclusion that he would be dealt. As the Wings overachieved, that became less certain. His numbers are down from last season, but he also isn't getting much powerplay time. On a contender, his offensive abilities, and ability to play big minutes are coveted by any team. I thought there may be a chance he could fetch a first rounder if his production remained strong, but that isn't the case at the moment. He should probably still net a second rounder, but that's where the club needs to decide if they see him having a future with the club. Yzerman has indicated he doesn't want to harm the morale of the team down the stretch, but everyone has their price.

I'm sure you all have heard by now that the Red Wings will have some issues on the left side of the blue line next year, with only Jordan Oesterle under contract. Seeing as he's a 6-7 defenseman, so they could have as many as 3 open spots. Marc Staal figures to be one of them, as the team covets his leadership, and mentoring abilities with the younger players. So there's still two spots left. Odds are the team wants veterans to fill them, as Simon Edvinsson would likely not be a lock to fill a spot, he would probably need to take it from someone. This is likely an area the Wings look to fill in free agency, or via trade. With a flat-cap, there are a handful of teams who will be looking to part with capable players with bloated cap hits.

There is certainly a case for Leddy to be back in a similar role. The club just needs to decide on the value of a second rounder, versus keeping Leddy in the system. Players traded at the deadline rarely return to the former club. Not that it doesn't happen, just rarely. We hear it every year, but I can't even recall the last time it came to fruition.
Vladislav Namestnikov - with significant ties to the area and a team friendly salary, it seems like a good fit to keep him in the fold, if he can be extended. He is enjoying wearing the Winged Wheel, and is having a strong season. He brings a lot of positives to the team, and there is also some very recent history of him in trades to know his value in such a deal. He has twice been traded for a fourth rounder, so that is what he can be expected to fetch. Not worth shipping out, in my opinion, but if a third rounder was suddenly offered, or a higher pick if the Wings took back another contract (or retained salary), it may change Stevie's mind.
Filip Zadina - with the team still trying to figure him out, this seems unlikely. The return would likely be someone else's reclamation project, and since the team is in need of scoring forwards, it wouldn't make sense to take back a defenseman when Z fits the needs of the team. And besides, his 200-foot game has come a long ways, so he clearly has a future in the NHL, it's just which line he will be on.
Michael Rasmussen - you can count me amongst the people who are ready to pull the plug on this experiment. The only part of his game that has rounded out, is his ability to take faceoffs. A few times this season, he has been put out in overtime to take a faceoff, then immediately come off the ice. Just last night, I watched him try to turn a corner against the Flyers D, putting his shoulder down, and just getting bowled over. For a guy who's 6'6" he just loses way too many physical battles. Outmuscled every night when just fighting for space. He needs to win those battles to create offense, and it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. His skating is still not great, and there's no one part of his game that is really above average. If another team makes an offer, I would probably be listening if I am Yzerman. If the return is a reclamation project, so be it. The Red Wings are stacked with fourth-line centers at the moment, so I'm not sure they are losing out here. His contract signed in the offseason may make him less tradable.

All in all, I don't expect a lot of activity. If anything, the team may end up being a third third party brought in to broker a trade by retaining cap-hit on another deal. Unfortunately, the team is already retaining cap-hit on Richard Panik's deal, so they only have two retention slots for this season and next. So one for Leddy, and a second for the highest bidder.

Slotting Every Spot in the Lineup

Here is where I believe every player on the Red Wings roster currently slots into the lineup.

Key: Green - strong fit, Yellow - average fit, Orange - weak fit, Red - no player who fits

Following on my last post, there are a number of holes that need to be filled, before the Red Wings push to be in contention, and those are shown in RED. When those holes are filled (and the ORANGE spots are eliminated), Jeff Blashill will go from being evaluated based on player development, to one who is evaluated based on team performance.

The most glaring holes here, are on the second line. While Lucas Raymond or Jakub Vrana could both fill in on the first line, neither is currently a true top line player (right now). Raymond could very well develop into one, but for now, he isn't there yet. Both of these guys are solid top-6 wingers. Another top-line winger will be needed to contend.

On the third line, we find two guys that are currently on the second line, Robby Fabbri and Pius Suter. They are performing capably, but are subpar when stacked up against contenders. Zadina is the wild-card here, as he seems to have offensive potential, but had yet to see results. Vlad Namestnikov is a capable third-liner with some ability to fill-in elsewhere, but his offensive ability is limited.

The fourth line is chock full of a hodge-podge of centers that don't really have an NHL identity. In my last entry, I discussed Michael Rasmussen's struggles to stick to a role, as well as Joe Veleno's inability to find one. The only guy who clearly has a clear future on this line is out injured, Mitchell Stephens. After a solid season last year, Adam Erne has disappeared. He is serviceable for an energy role.

On defense, we have another glaring hole on the top pair. Moritz Seider is a clear top-2 d-man, and plays it every night, but he needs help. Marc Staal and Danny DeKeyser have filled in there this season, but neither is a top-4 defender, with the latter probably not being an NHL caliber player anymore. Nick Leddy remains a capable puck-moving defenseman, but his ability to eat minutes isn't what it used to be. He remains a top-4 for his puck moving, but is a liability in his own zone.

Filip Hronek is also a capable puck-mover, but since he moved to the second pair (and matching up against opponents second line) his defensive numbers have failed to improve. His offensive has improved, if you consider his decrease in power-play time.

On the third pair, we have two solid players on the right side. Neither provide a whole lot of offensive upside, despite good instincts, but both can eat minutes. The left side, is another story. Marc Staal is clearly valued for his leadership, and physical presence, but has lost more than step since his prime. He is a capable third pair guy, but nothing more. Jordan Oesterle has filled in admirably this season when injuries have hit, but he has never played a full season, and isn't what most would consider a minutes-eater. He can step in when needed, but is a 6-7th d-man.

In the crease, Thomas Greiss has taken a substantial step in reverse this season. There was cause for optimism when he finished last season on a tear. However, age may be taking it's toll, and a stop-gap backup for Nedeljkovic may be needed. Ned has cemented himself as the team's starter, and has the look of a top-10 netminder in the NHL.

Jeff Blashill's Grade... and what's missing

Helene St. James had an article yesterday for the Free Press here, talking about Jeff Blashill's value to the club. It gave me the idea to talk a little about the topic myself...

The bottom line with Blashill, is the development of young players. The team is seeing some positive results in that regard this year, but it isn't all roses. For this purpose, I will exclude Larkin and Bertuzzi, as they have mostly moved past the development phase of their careers, and have cemented themselves as the cornerstones of the franchise.

Plusses:

Moritz Seider - he has been everything that was promised, and more. While his offensive ability was never expected to be close to that of a Cale Makar, he certainly has been no slouch. Nothing fancy here, but rock solid play at both ends of the ice. He has become more comfortable as the season has progressed. He looks like a lock to be a top-2 defenseman.
Lucas Raymond - very much on the bubble at the outset of camp, Raymond impressed with his ability to play at the NHL pace, making impressive plays along the way. There have been some statistical ups and downs, but no reason to be skeptical of his play. He certainly has the potential to be a top line player, and is already a bon-a-fide top-6.
Alex Nedeljkovic - a widely cheered acquisition during the offseason, Ned has continued to build on his first rookie campaign last season with Carolina. He has won a number of games on his own, and is beginning to look like a goalie the Wings can rely on for the next 5-7 years, if they choose to.
Gustav Lindstrom - Similar to Seider, there is nothing flashy about Gus' game. He makes the smart plays, and good first passes to start breakouts. While it would be nice if he could find another offensive element to his game, to match his defensive prowess, history at every level suggests that may not come. He has never put up big numbers offensively, so his ceiling may be limited to how well he can shut down opposing attacks. For now, he is a solid 5-6 defenseman, but without that offensive side, may be hard-pressed to work his way into the top-4.

Even:

Filip Hronek - after what seemed like a couple of years where he looked like a top-4 defenseman, he has struggled somewhat in second pair duty. The offensive instincts are obvious, but considering Seider is typically seeing the other team's top lines, his defensive play is still an issue. His offensive output remains strong, especially considering he is no longer on the top power-play unit. With stronger defensive play, he is a 2-3 d-man. As it stands, he is closer to 4-5.

Minuses:

Joe Veleno - this is where I begin the parade of heralded Ken Holland picks that have failed to bear any fruit... Heralded as an NHL ready center, he got off to a decent start, with multiple points in his first 10 games. Since then, however, he has disappeared. Granted, he is seeing sparse offensive zone time on the 4th line, but what was notable in his first few games is his quick first couple steps and above average stick-handling ability. And while he has a quick first couple of steps, he seems to lack another separation gear when skating in a straight line. More quality time would benefit him, but what looked like an ability to create earlier on, has disappeared during his offensive drought. If he finds the offense, he could be a legit number 3 center, with the ability to play some on the power-play.
Michael Rasmussen - like Veleno, he was a talented pivot in junior hockey that has failed to take that "next step." While Veleno is only seeing his first meaningful playing time this season, Rasmussen has already provided an abundance of disappointment for Wings fans over the past four. With a 6'6" frame like his, he certainly gets pushed around a lot. He plays more like he is 5'10" rather than six and a half feet tall. Compared to a guy like Adam Erne who is listed at 6'1" and plays more like 6'3-4", Rasmussen rarely wins battles for space. He is not overly physical, frequently declining to finish a check on the forecheck, and hasn't taken that next step this season. Last year his skating was notably better, albeit still abysmal, but with so many shortcomings in his play, it's hard to see him fitting as more than a 4th line center. He can win faceoffs, but his defensive play isn't stellar, so his ceiling as a 4th liner may be limited. His ability to stick in the NHL will be 100% dependent on his ability to find offense, as he hasn't shown the toolkit to play a checking role. Even in a little bit of power play time, he fails to be disruptive in front of the net. Again, for such a big frame, not a good sign.
Filip Zadina - this is the one that I continue to be baffled by... He has a phenomenal shot, when given the space, and clear puck-handling ability. Unlike Veleno, he doesn't have a quick first couple steps, but like Veleno, also lacks that "separation gear." In the January 26 game against the Blackhawks, he had one shift where he created 3-4 chances, only to have MAF make a couple of spectacular saves. The ability to create is there, but his skating keeps him from driving the play himself. His shooting percentage is really low, which makes me think that he's had some bad puck-luck, but his career percentage isn't much better, even though the sample size is very small. He has been brought up as a change-of-scenery candidate, but all that would bring back is someone else's reclamation project. Given the Wings clear need for scoring wingers, it makes sense to keep him in the fold. If he starts to find the net - then great! If he can't find the net, he has still made sizable progress with other parts of his game to stick on any NHL roster... It's just a matter of where. For now, he is right where he should be, on the third line. If the offense starts to come, he could wiggle his way into the top-6.
Givani Smith - he hasn't made the offensive strides I thought were possible after his 16 game cameo last season. He has provided the advertised sandpaper to the team, but has been a bit of a wild-card in terms of discipline. It reminds me of Sean Avery's brief time with the team. There's an energy every time he's out there, but too often, it has ended with his team down a man. He has looked like a bubble player this season, after the team showed a vote of confidence by protecting him in the expansion draft over the summer. Right now, he's a 12-13th forward, but with more discipline and experience, the potential is there to be a 3rd liner, as he has some offensive ability.

Incomplete:

Mitchell Stephens - a guy who showed some good hands in junior, and some good jump in the preseason, he just can't catch a break. A significant 'lower-body injury' 16 games in, has him on the shelf until this spring. I liked his skating ability and his hustle, and despite being a 4th line center, looks like he may have a bit of offense to his game. He has shown offense at every previous level, just not in limited time in the NHL. Unfortunately, this extended absence doesn't help his cause. He is a 4th line center when healthy, and seems to have some ability to play a 3c role when needed.

All in all, a few young players have made significant strides, while a few have not. I don't think it's any coincidence that all of the minuses on my list were spillovers from the Ken Holland era. Holland consistently failed to draft and develop in the last 15 years of his tenure, leading the team's fall from grace. Every draft between 2015-2018 had a questionable first round choice. Granted, Zadina was a consensus top-10 pick in his draft year, but there were doubts about his game from the beginning, leading to him falling to Detroit number 6. Montreal famously passed on him in favor of Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who was widely panned from day one.

Aside from Anthony Mantha and Larkin, taken in consecutive drafts in 2013 and 2014, respectively, one would have to go back to 2000 when the team drafted Niklas Kronwall to find a first round pick who actually lived up to expectations. Brendan Smith and Riley Sheahan have managed to stick around the NHL, but both are depth players at best. Sure, Holland traded away scores of picks to keep the team in contention, but also bragged about their ability to mine gems from the late rounds. After Zetterberg in 1999, there haven't been many late round surprises. When the picks were there, they rarely panned out.

That said, you can't pin too much on Blashill. He is developing the players Steve Yzerman is giving him, and that's what Stevie wants to see. If at some point that stops, or the Stevie believes the team has the tools to take the next step and Blashill is failing to push them there, a change will be made then. But for now, the team is clearly lacking to proper players to take that next step, and Yzerman knows it.

In my next entry, I will examine how the roster is shaping up in light of the projections above. Stay tuned...

When should I start eating my words?

I'll be honest... I didn't get to watch the whole game last night, but man, the Red Wings are looking like a tough team to beat. This team is starting to show some swagger, and a confidence not seen since Jeff Blashill took over at the helm.

I was beyond skeptical of their ability to contain Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they did. For the most part, they managed to keep them to the outside, limiting the quality shots. They are getting timely offense from up and down the lineup, with Namestnikov scoring two. He now has 7 on the year in just 14 games, while he had 8 all of last year in 53 games. These are the kind of bounce-back seasons the Red Wings need to move the needle on the rebuild. We all knew there was more to Vlad's game than the 8 he scored last year, and I'm sure there will be a down stretch, but he was able to score on a night when the top line wasn't clicking.

Nedeljkovic had his best game as a Red Wing, shutting the door when the barrage did come in the third. The Red Wings showed up on time for this one, something I lamented in my last post. They were out in front from the start, and maybe it's the big-game motivation that got them there. This is how they need to show up every night.

I don't expect them to win every time they face a top team, but this was a welcomed change from game one where they blew two separate three-goal leads to the Lightning. This team is battling, and has me eating the words I wrote just before yesterdays game. I am very cautiously optimistic about this team. The infusion of immensely talented youth, coupled with some savvy veterans continues to pay dividends, and I can't wait to see how they follow it up tomorrow. We are now 20% of the way through the season, and this team is looking like they belong right where they are.

Here's to hoping I am wrong...

Out of the gate it looks like 3-4 of my preseason predictions could be wrong. I'm not all that disappointed, though. Let's review:

Moritz Seider is a finalist for the Calder Trophy

I don't think this is too far fetched. He is showing why he was defenseman of the year in the SHL last season. Big, mobile, and can handle the puck.
There will be speed bumps, but he will be a massive upgrade to the Wings' D-corps in the short and long term.
He should score 30-35 points, manning the second powerplay unit.

Dylan Larkin will have a bounce-back season

He will lead the team in points, with 50-60.

Lucas Raymond will score less than 45 points

He looks poised to start the season on the top line with Larkin. He will provide some pop at times, but I fully anticipate the 82 game grind to take a toll mid-season, and he will slow down. The Olympic break could be a godsend for him, as it could be just the break he needs, just when the grind usually gets to the younger players.

Pius Suter scores 50+ points

Honestly, I think Larkin gets more of the minutes early, but I think Suter will eventually supplant Larkin as the top center. Whether that's this year or next is another story.

Thomas Greiss plays more than 60% of the games

While I think Alex Nedeljkovic has a whole lot of talent, I do think he will come back to earth a bit. Thomas Greiss had a fantastic second half last year, and I think he continues that, now that he is familiar with the defense. I think this will be something of a platoon situation, with the team riding the hot hand, but I think Nedeljkovic will be 1a rather than number 1.

Lots to digest, but some thoughts so far on each one:

At this point, Moritz Seider is probably neck and neck with his own teammate for the Calder. Lucas Raymond leads all rookies in points with 14 in 13 games, but Seider's all-around play has been something special, and he leads rookie defensemen in points with 10, to Bowen Byram's 8 (albeit in three more games). Though, it should be noted that Byram is shooting at 17.7% in the early going, and that isn't likely to be sustained over 82 games. Where I may end up being dead wrong, is with Seider having only 30-35 points this season, as he is currently on pace for 63 points. I expect both him and Raymond to cool down a bit, but the early results are encouraging. Mo started on the second power play unit this season, and has already been promoted to PP1, which is a testament to his underrated offensive abilities. He is never going to be Cale Makar (whom I am quickly establishing as the gold standard for talented defensemen), but he is no slouch with the puck on his stick, and he can lead a rush with authority. Playing on a rejuvenated PP1 has clearly been a big reason for his early offensive output.
Larkin is already showing signs of a bounce-back season, but the way things are going, he my not lead the team in points. Obviously, one injury can change everything, but if he continues his strong play and ends up not leading the team in points, I don't think that's going to be a bad thing. The team needs as many point producers as they can get.
Welp, I am looking dead wrong here. Lucas Raymond is currently on pace for 88 points. Wowza! Now, maybe I've seen too many rookies come in and get off to hot starts with the Red Wings (only to see them cool down and/or never build on it) to have much confidence here (Brunner, Jurco, Sheahan, Athanasiou, Frk, Nyquist, Cholowski, Brendan Smith), but something tells me he will cool off drastically at some point. Raymond and Seider will both likely have a bumpy patch this year, but there's no arguing they are both immensely talented players with bright futures ahead of them.
I think this one is still very doable. Suter got off to a bumpy start in the first five to six games, as he's adjusted to new teammates and systems. The skill is there, and the puck seems to follow him around a bit, which isn't a bad thing with his instincts. It's taken him a bit to get his footing, but the past five games he has looked very good, and whomever he's playing with, they seem to have good chemistry, and the ability to keep the puck in the offensive zone. They aren't always getting the scoring chances, but pinning the other team in their own zone is never a bad thing.
Save for one game where he misplayed a couple pucks, Greiss has been outstanding. Nedeljkovic had a rough first few outings, but has since righted the ship, and the two find themselves in a 50/50 timeshare. The team has two netminders that can answer the call on any given night, and that is quite a luxury. If one starts to struggle, the other will pick up some starts in the meantime, as the team will ride the hot hand. This one could go either way if one starts to struggle.

While the team got off to a hot start, they are showing signs of cooling. On the nights when the NHL's lone unvaccinated player isn't around to help out his teammates, the difference is stark. The teams' two rookie skaters have looked outstanding, but there are questions as to whether their performance can be sustained over a whole season. Odds are, they experience some growing pains at some point.

For Seider, those growing pains could be seen as soon as tonight, as he is tasked with holding down Connor McDavid and his fellow countryman Leon Draisaitl.

For Raymond, his shifty puck handling has been impressive, and an improved power play overall has helped him produce.

The power play looks completely different from last season. The Tanguay effect is evident. Last season, teams didn't respect the Red Wings on the power play. Mantha was the only guy who was respected to the point where they wouldn't just swarm him when he had space with the puck. The answer to aggressive penalty kills? Faster puck movement. The Wings are moving the puck very quickly with the man advantage, rarely having one guy able to hang onto the puck for more than a second or two. Teams are still aggressive when on the kill, but the Wings are managing to hang on to the puck much better this time around, and the quicker puck movement is impressively helping.

All of the success early is also being done without the guy expected to lead the team in points before camp started, Jakub Vrana. He is likely out at least another 3 months, but if the team continues on it's current trajectory, he could be a welcomed boost to a club currently hovering around .500. The early results are unexpected, yet impressive. The ability to stay in games continues to improve, and the knack for battling back is making for a lot of late game intrigue.

The one area that continues to leave me puzzled is the occasional period where the Wings seemingly don't show up. Getting tripled or quadrupled up on shots in a single period is still an issue at times, and a reflection of the coaching staff's continued inability to successfully implement strategy changes on the fly. After an intermission, the strategy typically changes and we see a different team, but at some point all those chances are going to start ending up in their own net.

It's been a fun start to watch, and if it holds, it could move the rebuild timeline up a bit. If it can be sustained, I am more than happy to be wrong in a lot of my projections here.