2023-24 Preseason thoughts...

 With the Red Wings still probably on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, here's some things that need to happen for them to get into the playoffs this season:

1. Lucas Raymond breaks out. This needs to happen for the Red Wings to become an elite team. The puck skills and hockey sense are there, but can he physically be impactful enough to move the needle? Not just using his body, but his feet too. I think the ability is certainly there, perhaps with the right supporting cast, for him to be a 30 goal/70 point player. But, is there even more there? That's what we need to see this year, whether it's 70 points, or 80, it's time for Raymond to take a big step forward.
   
   He put on some weight in the offseason, and it could really benefit him to watch David Perron and how he protects the puck down low. Last season, he lost way too many battles in the corners, and his body language suggested he was giving up too easy many times. He needs to be tougher to play against, both harder to knock off the puck, and tougher to slow down in stride. His skating is decent, but can he use it to add some elusiveness to his puck moving abilities? After all, a good skater with good puck skills can be a dangerous thing!
   
   
2. The team has better luck with health this season (knock on wood). The past few years, the Red Wings have gotten off to strong (relatively) starts, not fading until December or January when injuries decimated the roster. This year, fortunately, they are much better insulated against that possibility. J.T. Compher excelled in Colorado last year when he was tasked with bigger responsibilities, and Daniel Sprong has shown a knack for getting off quick shots in the preseason, not to mention the fact that he had 21 goals last year in a mostly fourth line role. Add in Klim Kostin, and there's more depth than the Red Wings have had in years.
   
   One thing I think people really overlook is how much injuries have impacted the Red Wings the past couple seasons. Robby Fabbri has yet to play a full season in the NHL, and while I can't help but feel for the guy as he's a tireless worker, you can't really expect him to play 60+ games. Michael Rasmussen was very effective, and looking like he was rounding into a really solid middle-six guy before his injury last season. For a guy whose biggest knock had long been his skating, there were times that I felt his skating was becoming an asset, using those long legs to get bigger and more powerful strides, and winning races to pucks. Still, for a 6'6" guy, I wish he would play bigger. If I didn't know better, I would swear he was 6'2" to 6'3", as he doesn't use that big frame to his advantage often enough.
   
   
3. Defense buckles down. Since the Red Wings have had the complete opposite of lottery luck since they became an annual fixture there, it's obvious Yzerman is pivoting the approach. Only one team has won a Stanley Cup in the salary cap era when they didn't have a top-3 pick on their roster... the 2008 Detroit Red Wings. Every other team has had a top-3 pick. Nearly all of those teams have had one or more of those players, who were dynamic offensive players. The Red Wings, once again, have none of that. That can change, if Lucas Raymond can become a more dynamic player. Nate Danielson has looked impressive in preseason play, as well, so there's a chance he could develop into the offensive talent the Red Wings have been denied at the top of the draft, but he's also likely ticketed back to juniors. But there's no denying the fact that the Red Wings' best prospects remain on the back end. Seider, Edvinsson, Wallinder, Sandin-Pellika, Johansson, Viro, Buium, Tuomisto. Eight guys with legitimate chances at making the NHL (if they haven't already). Looking back at Yzerman's drafts, and I can barely get to 8 forwards (Soderblom, Raymond, Hanas, Mazur, Kasper, Buchelnikov, Lombardi, Danielson). It's clear the returns have been better on the back end so far.
   
   So the pivot is clear. Since defense is where the returns are coming, it seems Yzerman is doubling-down on the back end. It's a strategy that's relatively untested in the salary cap era, but it could just be a short-term play. Tighten-up the back end, use that to become competitive, allow some of those guys to develop, and see how it all unfolds. By adding depth in the process, the Red Wings will be able to ice four competitive lines, whereas a lot of the contenders can only ice 2-3 because of their cap situations. This is how Seattle made it work last year. One thing I keep telling people, is that prospects can be traded down the road to fill another need. The Red Wings clearly still lack a game-breaking talent offensively, but you can only wait so long before you need to turn the corner, so to speak, on building the roster. You need to create a positive environment for these kids, and losing is never going to do that. They continue to bring these kids along, but it didn't help that the cupboard was barren when it began. Most teams have an asset or two they could ship off, think, Timo Meier. Between the lack of assets to start the rebuild, and the lack of lottery luck, these two things have lengthened the rebuild.
   
   
4. Husso rebounds. I think this will happen. It was clear the workload got to him last year. It was also clear that, even on his off-nights, he still gave the team the best chance to win. With some help behind him, hopefully he can carry the bulk of the load at the level he started last season with.
   
   
5. Another young player flourishes. At the end of the day, the team needs to be built through the draft. With only two Yzerman picks on the roster last year, you can hardly say that's the case. And that is also why I laugh when people say they think the Red Wings need to be in the playoffs this year. That really isn't practical. Say they add two young players to the roster this year. That makes four. Four out of 23 isn't really building through the draft. It takes time, and hopefully we start seeing some later picks stick on the roster, but even then, it will be 3-4 years before they start to reach their potential. The Red Wings really did start from zero under Yzerman. No veterans they could trade for picks, a collection of middle-six quality prospects (Bertuzzi, Mantha, Rasmussen, Berggren, Veleno), and Hronek on D. Larkin was really the only building block, and even he fits better as a second line center, than a number one. It just made the timeline a lot longer, when most teams may be ready to move ahead.
   
   That said, if the Red Wings are going to take a step forward, they need other young players to take a step forward, too. They were Holland picks, but Berggren and Rasmussen could both take steps forward that would help the team. Simon Edvinsson or Albert Johanssen could also help the cause by showing they are ready for big NHL minutes on the back end, and Carter Mazur, Cross Hanas, and Marco Kasper putting up big numbers in the AHL would be a welcomed sign that there is some hope on the offensive side.
   

The Red Wings certainly have a chance to push for the playoffs this season. Their depth up front is reminiscent of Seattle last season, with no big-time scorers up front, but every line appears poised to chip in. I think they are better equipped to deal with injuries, and a second season under coach Derek Lalonde will produce less of a learning curve.

Yzerman has signaled he is pivoting to some extent on the rebuild, putting defense first, partly due to the wealth of prospects on the back end. The defense is as good as it's been under Yzerman. Add in Alex DeBrincat, if he can score 30+ goals, and last year's improved power play is looking ever better this season. Add in a full season of a healthy Andrew Copp, and the Red Wings are certainly poised to challenge for a playoff spot.

Thoughts on the offseason...

The offseason has been a mixed bag so far. Another draft where the Red Wings take the 'high floor' guy, as well as another supremely talented defenseman in the first round. In all, the team took four forwards, five defensemen, and two goaltenders. The plan continues to become clearer, build from the back-end out.

People love to compare the job Steve Yzerman is doing with the Red Wings to what he did with Tampa Bay. To that, I will say what I keep repeating: they are two very different animals, you really can't compare them.

When Yzerman arrived in Tampa, they already had Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, drafted in the two drafts prior to his arrival. Compare that to the Red Wings, where the cupboards were barren. The only real asset, was Dylan Larkin, a far cry from the generational talent he had as building blocks previously. The prospect pipeline was weak, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Rasmussen, and Zadina being the previous four top picks, and none of whom seem likely to live up to the hype of a first round pick. Rasmussen has shown some flashes, but consistency has been an issue. So Yzerman started in Detroit with nothing, has gotten no lottery help, and has struggled to find offense in a league where teams hold onto their best players.

So, if you can't win games by outscoring the opponent, what else can you do? You keep them from outscoring you! This is clearly the path Yzerman is taking, and it really is the logical way to go. Think about it, tighten up on the back end and wait for some of your kids to develop, and hopefully a few of them become offensive contributors. Your offensive growth comes from within, and you've already gotten better defensively. It's not the sexy way to go, but without those lottery picks that have been synonymous with success in the salary cap era, it may be the most logical path.

Compher and Copp aren't high-end signings, but they will help keep the puck out of their own net while some of the kids develop into scorers. The commitment to defense is clear. Add in Daniel Sprong, a known defensive liability, who could be effective playing with the aforementioned Compher or Copp.

I hear a lot of people complaining that Yzerman isn't doing enough to win in Larkin's window. I've said it before, and I will say it again. The rebuild has no bearing on Larkin. He was drafted five years before the rebuild really began with Seider. It's not a fair measuring stick for Yzerman. Steve said at the draft that they are still in the collecting assets phase. And he's right. You can't make a trade for a star until you're already competitive, and they really aren't. Beyond that, a trade for a star now, only makes the team incrementally better, good enough to make the playoffs, but still get knocked out in the first round. Not to mention, how it would decimate the farm system. DeBrincat is a low-end top-line forward. He doesn't play a 200-foot game, so there would be some sacrifice. Giving up a couple picks and a couple prospects really doesn't move the needle 3-4 years out. Especially up front, the Red Wings can't absorb 1-2 high end prospects being traded. I would love to see the Wings win a cup with Larkin, but you really can't bet the house just for a shot at it.

The Red Wings just finished their fourth season with Yzerman at the helm. When he arrived, he said he would build through the draft, and it would take a long time. Only five out of 50+ draft picks have made an appearance in the NHL so far (two with less than 10 games). So the roster still isn't built through the draft. When you've got 10+ picks on the roster, you can better assess how the rebuild is going. Once the Red Wings make the playoffs, then it's probably time to swing a trade for a star. Patience is key. Each lottery snub probably adds another year to the rebuild (if you can't get the guy who's going to score 30 goals, then you need a couple guys that can score 20). It's painful, but the process is clear, it just requires an extra bit of patience.

As of now, I would estimate the Red Wings finish just out of the playoffs in 2023-24. To me, it's not yet worth the price to trade just to get knocked out in the first round. Get that one last lottery pick, and then take the step forward. Another year of development isn't what we all want to see, but it is what's needed. That's part of the process, as is having realistic expectations.

What would you rather see, the Red Wings make the playoffs the next few years, and maybe win a round here and there, or truly load up, and make a few runs at the Cup? I know my answer.

Thoughts after the season...

 It was a long season with a lot to unpack, so I'm going to comment on all the nonsense I'm hearing:

1. "It's time to trade for a star..."
   
   I don't even know where to begin with this one. The bottom line, is Yzerman said from day one, he wants to build through the draft. So let's see where we are. Of Yzerman's draft picks here are their games played:
   
   Moritz Seider - 2019 - 164 games
   Lucas Raymond - 2020 - 156 games
   Elmer Soderblom - 2019 - 21 games
   Simon Edvinsson - 2021 - 9 games
   Marco Kasper - 2022 - 1 game
   
   Yzerman has made 40 picks through four drafts. Only five have played at least one NHL game, with only two playing a whole season. With that in mind, I can't really say the roster has been built through the draft.
   
   There are a number of draftees on the cusp, but you really need to see them through to the NHL before you can take a step forward. Leaving out the players listed above, on the cusp:
   
   Albert Johansson - 2019
   William Wallinder - 2020
   Carter Mazur - 2021
   Amadeus Lombardi - 2022
   
   I'd guess that at least two of those players make their NHL debut in 2023-24.
   
   You don't want to make a trade for a star, only to have two to three years of their prime wiped out by continued development and building. Looking at where the Red Wings pipeline is at now, they are probably two to three more years from being ready to make that splash. That can all change with a prospect breaking out. Keep in mind, Yzerman drafted Nikita Kucherov in the second round, and Brayden Point in the third round. Could Lombardi be one of those surprises?
   
   
2. "We need to draft forwards..."
   
   I get it, looking positionally at the Red Wings' prospect pipeline, it is certainly defense heavy, particularly on the left side. BUT, you still have to take the best player available. High-end players and prospects can always be traded to fill bigger needs down the road, but not if you don't have the best player. Look at Colorado, they had four fairly young defensemen on their cup roster in Makar, Toews, Girard, and Byram. Granted, Toews was 28 at the end of the season, but a huge contributor. Toews and Girard were both acquired for that exact reason.
   
   If anything, this example just goes to reinforce my point in number 1 above, where if Yzerman is filling out a roster with prospects, and we have three high-end defense prospects and few impact forwards, the team probably isn't ready to take a big step forward. Take the best player, if you get too many at one position, and have a chance to move the needle somewhere else, you can make a trade down the road. A better prospect is liable to be flipped for a better player down the road regardless.
   
   
3. Draft Lottery Luck?
   
   I have a whole bunch of conspiracy theories about the NHL draft and how the same (big market) teams always seem to 'win' it. The Rangers complained in 2020 about 'play-in' teams being excluded from the lottery, then they *magically* win the whole thing to get Lafreniere. The Blackhawks in 2019, in a serious cap crunch - and needing cheap talent to go with Kane and Toews, *magically* move up 10 spots to take Kirby Dach. Now, on the heels of a major abuse scandal, and perhaps more importantly - abysmal attendance and tv ratings, the Blackhawks strike lottery gold again, in the most anticipated draft since Connor McDavid was drafted in 2015.
   
   Say what you want about it, but look back at how many times both the Blackhawks, Devils and Rangers have moved up in the draft (hint: it's more than once). The NHL knows that the money is in the TV ratings, and having your biggest markets be competitive, is the best thing for TV ratings. And now to have an apparent faux pas on the lottery announcement show, indicating the TV announcers effectively knew who the pick was prior to the announcement, really draws into focus the scenarios above. I'm not saying the lottery is manipulated, but year after year, the league continues to fan the flames of suspicion.
   
   I digress... I said all of that to say this: whatever the reason is for the Red Wings not winning one of three straight lotteries in which they were favored, the bottom line is that it has absolutely affected their rebuild. Instead of getting a crack at a couple of guys that could seriously move the needle, they will need to amass a few more quality prospects elsewhere in the draft to make up for it.
   
   There is a talent gap at forward, no doubt, and particularly in terms of high-end talent. Lots of good players are picked in the 9-10 range regularly, with Timo Meier and Mikko Rantanen picked back-to-back in 2015 in those spots. All indications this year, is there will be a good forward available at number 9, but will it be the best player? Who knows. So that means the Red Wings have four options to fill out the pipeline: 1) lottery luck (see: above), 2) draft quality forwards from 9-16 the next couple seasons, 3) take the best player, and potentially trade down the road, 4) find a whole bunch of Kucherovs and Points in rounds 2-7.

Thoughts through 5 games...

Last year, the Red Wings got off to a strong start. It wasn't until injuries started to pile up that it all came unraveled, and Nedeljkovic had that rough January.

This year could be vastly different.

Here's five observations so far.

1.    Already with Fabbri, Bertuzzi, and Vrana on the shelf for an extended period, this year's team has the depth to make do. Still with two solid scoring units, and the 'tree line' that has been a force down low, even when they're not scoring.

The depth is the key takeaway. Last year, the first line did all the work in the scoring department. When they weren't scoring, they weren't winning. There are more people scoring this year. Forwards David Perron and Dominik Kubalik are looking like shrewd signings, as is Olli Maatta on the back end. Given Andrew Copp missed all of camp, it's only matter of time until he starts to join them. His timing is clearly off, as can be expected, and there's no greater indicator of that perhaps, than his 33.73% faceoff percentage, which is nearly 18% below his career rate of 51.4%. The past few years, he has been near or above 53%, with one small outlier being after his trade last year to the Rangers where he was just under 50% in 16 games. Perron has been as-advertised, both in production and leadership, and Kubalik has been the surprise scoring leader to this point. His 8 points in five games are the most to start a Red Wings tenure since Paul Coffey had 10 points in five games. Add it all up, and that's a whole additional scoring line this year.

The 'tree line' has been a force in the offensive zone. Oskar Sundqvist is the small man at 6'3" and has been showing some offensive ability so far. Michael Rasmussen has shown further improved skating, and some decent speed in open ice. In the Anaheim game, he won a foot race against swift-skating defenseman John Klingberg, only to have John Gibson poke-check him on the scoring opportunity. While Elmer Soderblom has been dazzling with his hands and hockey sense, his skating still needs to be polished. No doubt, at this point, he still looks like an NHLer, and hasn't really looked out of place.

2.    Special teams have been really good for the Wings. The penalty kill remains one of three in the NHL not to have yielded a goal to the opposing team's power play (STL-3gms, NYI-6gms). And while the power play was slow to get in a rhythm, they have really started to click. I remember the first few games, that one-timer from Perron was off every time. Three to four times on a single opportunity, it was just out of his wheelhouse. Clearly, having a dynamic player over there who can get that shot off regularly is an advantage. It finally started to click against Anaheim, and the ones that didn't go in were still creating havoc on the rebounds.

Interesting to note, Moritz Seider is not currently on the top power play unit. Filip Hronek is getting those reps, and their offensive statistics have reflected that. Seider, in general, has not been moving the puck as he did last year. His defensive game has still been rock-solid, but something to watch going forward.

3.    Strength of schedule is something to remember here. Their only opponent so far that made the playoffs last season, was Los Angeles. Currently, only L.A. and Chicago are in playoff positions (both wild cards in the West), and Chicago isn't expected to be close this year. So taking that into account, there is reason to temper expectations, but there is good reason to be optimistic, as they are still looking like a better defensive team this season.

4.    Physicality has been evident thus far. The fourth line has been hitting a lot, with even Pius Suter finishing checks. It's not something we've seen the past few years.

5.    Young guns haven't hit their stride yet. Filip Zadina had a solid camp, and he's been engaged in the play, but still hasn't translated it into offensive production. His second power play unit against Anaheim struggled to get much going, so that will be something to watch. While Zadina's struggles are well documented, Lucas Raymond's are not. Raymond, like Zadina, has been engaged, but just not getting the same great chances he has last season. He has also seen a lot of his power play time on the second unit, so they will need to find some consistency there to really start finding the scoresheet.

My thoughts on Chiarot

A whole lot of people don't like the Chiarot signing/contract. I get it, they probably overpaid a bit. But, what's important to remember here, is this is the final year of the flat cap. Next year, it starts going up again. Then he's only got three years left on the deal. So, sure, they overpaid, but the term is reasonable. Not to mention, this is just a stop-gap between now and when the bounty of defensive prospects begins to sign new deals.

The Red Wings' defenseman who was consistently hardest to play against last year (aside from Seider) was Marc Staal. Since he's gone, there is a clear hole back there. He can stick around for a few years and provide a stable veteran. For five years, this contract looks a whole lot worse, but for four, that's realistically the time it will take for the Wings to really start contending. All things considered, it's not all that bad, and it still fits (and further defines) the timeline that Steve Yzerman and Co. have on this rebuild.

Patrick Kane? Keep dreaming...

First off, I must admit, it would be great to see the Red Wings get a bona-fide star on offense.

Now let's quit dreaming...

Patrick Kane is a no doubter for the hall of fame, but the Red Wings aren't ready to compete yet. The Red Wings are certainly an improved team this year, but they are still far from being a contender, let alone making the playoffs.

Believe me, I like the team Stevie has put together, but there East is stacked with them. In the Red Wings division alone, Tampa, Toronto, and Florida are all shoo-ins, while Boston is still hanging around, and Ottawa is one team that arguably had a better off-season than Detroit. All in the Atlantic. Shifting to the Metropolitan, Carolina, New York Rangers, and Washington all seem like locks, and Pittsburgh is still hanging on there.

At best, one player of Kane's caliber would likely just put the Wings in contention for one of those final spots. Obviously, a couple of pleasant surprises along the way could help, but just because one player has a breakout year, that doesn't mean someone else won't take a step back (see: Adam Erne).

Cap space isn't really an issue here. Sure, some of you are still bitter about the Chiarot signing, but Chicago will likely want to hold onto some of Kane's salary to garner a bigger return, weaponizing their newly found glut of cap space. They will ultimately land at least one first-round pick for Kane, probably a pick and a prospect. Not a place the Red Wings are ready to go, especially with Kane on an expiring contract. Odds are, Kane will be on his last season or two when the Wings are truly ready to compete. As of right now, he's probably got four-five more solid ones ahead of him.

And another D... Mark Pysyk - 1yr 850k

It's clear to me that Yzerman has made D the priority. And for good reason. It was atrocious last season. Maatta and Pysyk seem to be holdovers on one year deals to bridge the gap to the next wave (Edvinsson, Albertsson, Wallinder). Curious to see what happens with Hronek/Lindstrom. Serious logjam shaping up back there. Will get worse if Edvinsson makes the team out of camp, but it all seems to suggest Simon will start the season in GR.

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed defenseman Mark Pysyk to a 1-year contract. pic.twitter.com/AvbA0fm86j

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 14, 2022

Depth signing... Austin Czarnik 2 year, 2 way deal - UPDATE (signings): Matt Luff for 1yr

Likely headed to GR:

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed center Austin Czarnik to a two-year, two-way contract. pic.twitter.com/Hz2t8j7euz

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed right wing Matt Luff to a one-year, two-way contract. pic.twitter.com/B80qJy9NQl

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022

Kubalik too... 2x2.5

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed left wing Dominik Kubalik to a 2-year contract. pic.twitter.com/hvFUpe7nAt

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022

Perron? Yzerman is busy... UPDATE: YES, 2 Years UPDATE 2: 4.75AAV

Hearing #RedWings and David Perron are closing in on a deal. #LGRW@DailyFaceoff

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) July 13, 2022

David Perron, Dominik Kubalik signing 2-year deals with Detroit

— David Pagnotta (@TheFourthPeriod) July 13, 2022

 

UPDATE: The #RedWings today signed left wing David Perron to a 2-year contract. pic.twitter.com/brYHXpMS6M

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) July 13, 2022

And Ben Chiarot? UPDATE: YES 4x4.75

Hearing Ben Chiarot and DET closing in

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 13, 2022

Color me surprised.

UPDATE:

Ben Chiarot 4x$4.75M in DET

— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 13, 2022

And their left-shooting D-man

Red Wings finalizing 1 year, $2.25 mil deal with Olli Maatta.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 13, 2022

Wings get their #2 Center

5 years $5.625 for Copp in Detroit.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) July 13, 2022

UFA Day 2022

UFA Day is here.

The Red Wings have a few holes to fill, notably on the left side of the blue line, and at center. Rumors circulating that Andrew Copp is that center. Looks like options at D are disappearing fast. Staal could well come back.

Wouldn't be surprised if the team signed a winger to play in the top 9, or a right-shot d-man if one could be had. Hronek has been rumored to be a trade chip, so if an upgrade were available, he would be moved.

Curious to see how it all pans out, but Wings have a LOT of money to spend, and cap could start going up in 2023, so fewer teams will be shedding contracts and more will be buying.

Contrasting management styles... UPDATED

It came as no surprise when Steve Yzerman announced, within days of his team's season ending, that head coach Jeff Blashill would not return. You couldn’t fault Blashill for the results the past few years.

After inheriting a 24 year playoff streak, and a roster seriously on the decline, the talent he had to work with was far from playoff material. His work molded a handful of prospects into productive NHLers. While those players began to take the next step, it looked like the team was about to turn the metaphorical corner toward playoff qualification.

Then the wheels fell off. A handful of injures, covid cases, and a player who couldn’t be bothered to be there when his teammates played in Canada, all took their toll. The goaltending that bailed out the defense nearly every night the first two months of the year started showing some growing pains. Ultimately, the team lacked the depth to compensate for any of this. And the compete level suffered. Too many games down the stretch saw the Wings getting out-shot 20-5 midway through the second period. And while they may have only been down a goal or two, the hole was dug. While it was promising to see that they could be competitive with a full roster, it was obvious that the roster needs a few more bodies to take the next step. What was more obvious, however, was their compete. Things were snowballing. One goal would lead to three, and the double-digit games started adding up.

So when Blashill was relieved of his duties, it was a surprise to no-one. The team needed a new voice. Someone who gets the most out of their players. Someone who can hold the players accountable. Someone who can deploy a quality defense. And someone who will still be able to nurture the young players on the club, as well as the next wave in the pipeline.

Having the coaching decision made quickly, gave the team early access to the coaching market. One that began to settle as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continued to unfold. And for a team that didn’t qualify, that’s the best-case scenario.

So let’s shift our focus. Another non-playoff club, the San Jose Sharks, waited until June 30 to relieve Bob Boughner and his staff of their duties. By this point, eight teams have officially filled coaching positions. Another, the Edmonton Oilers, removed the ‘interim’ tag from Jay Woodcroft. And a 10th team, the Winnipeg Jets, were to announce Rick Bowness as their new coach. The Sharks became the 11th team this offseason that will be naming a new coach, just as everyone else had filled their vacancies.

Why the sudden change?

A few things could be at play here. Either something really bad, the kind of thing that gets people “canceled” these days, happened amongst the staff. Someone that the organization really likes became a possibility. Or they just waited too long to make the decision. One thing is out of your control, one thing is unexpected, and the last is 100% on management.

To me, I don’t see anyone earth shattering that suddenly hit the market, save for Tampa assistant coach Jeff Halpern. We obviously don’t know what happened behind closed doors, but it seems to me that this is a team that just waited way too long to announce their new direction, and as a result, missed out on all the great candidates on the market.

Granted, the Sharks are a team that likely won’t be competitive for a while. They have a handful of really terrible contracts that they won’t be able to move. No real prospect pipeline, since they shipped it away for Erik Karlsson. And really only two stars of note. Not the most attractive situation for any coach, which makes this decision all the more baffling. This is the kind of thing that should really piss-off ownership. Unless it was something outside the team’s control.

Steve Yzerman was deliberate, made his decision quickly, and got a solid candidate in Derek Lalonde. The Sharks management is looking questionable at best. And at this point, there is no guarantee they will end up with a better coach. The difference in management styles is stark here. It’s not like the Sharks were a playoff team who failed to show up. They didn’t even make it. If I’m the owner, I don’t like the decision. Not to mention, it being by interim GM Joe Will.

While the Wings are still early in the rebuild, and in Steve Yzerman’s tenure, I’ve yet to find a decision that you could really question like this. It’s nonsensical to me that they could be so laid back, and wait so long before a change. Now they have no coach heading into free agency, so the team just kicked the can down the road another year. Sure, it’s the GM that ultimately signs the players, but coaches have a lot of influence as to whether or not they will fit their style.

A big swing and a miss by the interim GM in San Jose, and things like this reassure me that Yzerman is one of the best.

UPDATE 2022/07/05 - it appears Mike Grier has been named GM in San Jose. He will begin his tenure with a challenging coaching hire, with the carousel of candidates mostly settled. This is far from an attractive position, with the club hamstrung with cap issues for the foreseeable future.

There is one interesting connection here though... Mike Grier and Tampa Bay assistant coach Jeff Halpern played together with the Washington Capitals from 2002-04. Could Halpern take this opportunity to move into a head coaching role?

Another day, another loss...

In what was a fun game to watch, the Red Wings lost again to the Minnesota Wild, 6-5 in a shootout.

The Wings once held a 4-2 lead in this game, and their ability to protect leads is clearly non-existent. Lucas Raymond and Jakub Vrana both had two goals. Nick Leddy had the playmaker with 3 assists, and Joe Veleno added two of his own. Offensively is was a solid night. Nick Leddy looked particularly impressive on his assists, with a beautiful spin move on Ryan Hartman to set up Lucas Ramond's first goal on the night.

Alex Nedeljkovic looked much better, and was clearly the better goalie in this one. That's not saying much though. The Wild goaltending has been relatively atrocious this season, and for a team with aspirations for contention in the postseason, if they don't find a goalie before the trade deadline, they could be in real trouble. Unless Cam Talbot of Kaapo Kahkonen go on a serious run, neither is currently capable of backstopping a team to the Cup.

Back to the Wings, the defense hasn't been there the past few weeks. I mean, it hasn't been there most of the season, but it's been worse recently. A third straight game surrendering five-plus goals, is clearly an issue. After his minus-six performance against Arizona, Gustav Lindstrom sat this one out, but he was far from the only issue in that game. Jordan Oesterle and Nick Leddy were both minus-four against the Coyotes, and both bounced back in some regard in this game. Leddy with the aforementioned playmaker, and Oesterle with the game-tying goal with just under three minutes remaining against the Wild to send it to overtime. Troy Stecher pulled into the lineup in Lindstrom's place, and was minus-one. At some point, I would expect Olli Juolevi to see game action, and I expected him to pull into the lineup in Oesterle's place against the Wild, but with bounce-back efforts from Leddy and Oesterle it's increasingly unclear when Juolevi will make his debut in the winged wheel.

The line of Veleno, Vrana, and Zadina was making noise every time on the ice. Filip Zadina made a really good inside-out play on Matt Dumba to get behind the Wild net, where he eventually found Oesterle for the tying goal. Zadina got hammered at the Arizona blue line late in the game Tuesday when he was trying to carry the puck deep. I thought at the time, that he may never be that kind of "inside" player. This was a perimeter play, but a darn good one. Zadina strikes me two different ways offensively. One, he can't carry the puck through traffic. That's ok, very few players can. But when he gets the puck in traffic, he has a phenomenal shot, and he's clearly had some bad puck luck there this year. On this play however, he showcases the other side of his offensive ability, where he can make a move on the perimeter, and look for an open teammate. I do think there's something to the statement that he's more of a perimeter guy, but I still think there's more to his game when he gets the puck on his stick in the slot. That shot is just far too good.

While the VVZ line was good, there were a few names that I didn't really notice. Captain Dylan Larkin and linemate Tyler Bertuzzi were held pointless on the night, a rarity when this team scores five goals.

Robby Fabbri was also quiet before leaving injured in the second period. The team believes he has a torn ACL, which would end his season. Word is, this is NOT the same knee in which he had previously torn his ACL.

Overall, the defense needs to be better. It will be interesting to see how they cope with the loss of Fabbri. The team has no real scoring options in Grand Rapids, aside from Jonatan Berggren, and it would be mildly surprising to see him brought up before he is truly dominating at that level, as the team has said in the past. Coupled with the impending trade deadline, which could see a small handful of guys leaving the club, the next couple weeks figures to be interesting.

Robby Fabbri out for season with torn ACL

Red Wings suspect Fabbri tore his ACL. Expected to be out the rest of the year

— Max Bultman (@m_bultman) March 11, 2022

A 9-2 reality check against the 'Yotes...

In his postgame presser, Dylan Larkin had one word to describe what went wrong, "everything."

And he's absolutely right. Not winning races to pucks, not winning the battles, numerous defensive lapses, goaltending gaffes. Last night had very little to like for the red and white.

The only positive, and I'll get it out of the way now, was the return of Jakub Vrana, who also potted his first goal. Glad to see him back, but unfortunately, twelve of him wouldn't have stemmed the tide of last nights game, especially as he looked gassed at the end of more than a few shifts.

But on to the rest...

The defense was horrid. The left side in particular, starting with Oesterle and Leddy was particularly bad, with a few missed coverages resulting in goals. Both were -4 on the night. Marc Staal was the only lefty that looked engaged all night who, along with his partner Filip Hronek, were the only blueliners who had a plus/minus better than -3. Staal was -1 and Hronek was even. In the age of advanced statistics, plus/minus is looked at less and less, but to me, in this game, it tells the story. Gustav Lindstrom was the guy on the right side that seemed to get burned a few times, and his -6 was worst on the team. Add to the defensive issues, that a few of the goals were on 3-on-2s, and it's obvious the forwards weren't doing their part to backcheck. Not to mention that Arizona defenseman Jakob Chychrun was able to score a goal in the goal-mouth, and it's clear the coverage wasn't there.

As bad as the defense was, the goaltending was probably worse. After the first period, Dominic Moore of ESPN+ pointed out that Alex Nedeljkovic was over-committing on the Coyotes goals. He went on to point out that it wasn't always the play immediately following where it cost him the goal, but the second or third after that. He was absolutely right. Ned overcommitted on Chychrun's first goal, by sliding across the crease prematurely, only to have the puck go right back the other way to Barrett Hayton who threw it on net, and Ned had to scramble for the Hayton shot and then couldn't recover for the rebound that Chychrun sent into the cage on a diving play. Chychrun should've been covered, but that's another story entirely. It didn't matter who was in net either, as Thomas Greiss gave up 2 goals on three shots, the first of which I thought was very weak, and not from a great angle. What should have been a glove save, was far too easy.

This is a massive reality check for the Wings. The best teams don't have nights like this very often, and the Red Wings have had a handful lately. Coming off a road trip that saw the Wings play some of the leagues best teams, and even a strong game against Carolina, there is no excuse for this effort that should have been a chance to get back on track.

Decisions, decisions...

 As we approach the halfway point of the season (assuming we make it the full 82 games), the Wings have some decisions to make with regards to personnel. I will examine the pros and cons of each.

1. Nick Leddy - at the beginning of the season, it was a foregone conclusion that he would be dealt. As the Wings overachieved, that became less certain. His numbers are down from last season, but he also isn't getting much powerplay time. On a contender, his offensive abilities, and ability to play big minutes are coveted by any team. I thought there may be a chance he could fetch a first rounder if his production remained strong, but that isn't the case at the moment. He should probably still net a second rounder, but that's where the club needs to decide if they see him having a future with the club. Yzerman has indicated he doesn't want to harm the morale of the team down the stretch, but everyone has their price.
   
   I'm sure you all have heard by now that the Red Wings will have some issues on the left side of the blue line next year, with only Jordan Oesterle under contract. Seeing as he's a 6-7 defenseman, so they could have as many as 3 open spots. Marc Staal figures to be one of them, as the team covets his leadership, and mentoring abilities with the younger players. So there's still two spots left. Odds are the team wants veterans to fill them, as Simon Edvinsson would likely not be a lock to fill a spot, he would probably need to take it from someone. This is likely an area the Wings look to fill in free agency, or via trade. With a flat-cap, there are a handful of teams who will be looking to part with capable players with bloated cap hits.
   
   There is certainly a case for Leddy to be back in a similar role. The club just needs to decide on the value of a second rounder, versus keeping Leddy in the system. Players traded at the deadline rarely return to the former club. Not that it doesn't happen, just rarely. We hear it every year, but I can't even recall the last time it came to fruition.
   
   
2. Vladislav Namestnikov - with significant ties to the area and a team friendly salary, it seems like a good fit to keep him in the fold, if he can be extended. He is enjoying wearing the Winged Wheel, and is having a strong season. He brings a lot of positives to the team, and there is also some very recent history of him in trades to know his value in such a deal. He has twice been traded for a fourth rounder, so that is what he can be expected to fetch. Not worth shipping out, in my opinion, but if a third rounder was suddenly offered, or a higher pick if the Wings took back another contract (or retained salary), it may change Stevie's mind.
   
   
3. Filip Zadina - with the team still trying to figure him out, this seems unlikely. The return would likely be someone else's reclamation project, and since the team is in need of scoring forwards, it wouldn't make sense to take back a defenseman when Z fits the needs of the team. And besides, his 200-foot game has come a long ways, so he clearly has a future in the NHL, it's just which line he will be on.
   
   
4. Michael Rasmussen - you can count me amongst the people who are ready to pull the plug on this experiment. The only part of his game that has rounded out, is his ability to take faceoffs. A few times this season, he has been put out in overtime to take a faceoff, then immediately come off the ice. Just last night, I watched him try to turn a corner against the Flyers D, putting his shoulder down, and just getting bowled over. For a guy who's 6'6" he just loses way too many physical battles. Outmuscled every night when just fighting for space. He needs to win those battles to create offense, and it doesn't seem like it's going to happen. His skating is still not great, and there's no one part of his game that is really above average. If another team makes an offer, I would probably be listening if I am Yzerman. If the return is a reclamation project, so be it. The Red Wings are stacked with fourth-line centers at the moment, so I'm not sure they are losing out here. His contract signed in the offseason may make him less tradable.

All in all, I don't expect a lot of activity. If anything, the team may end up being a third third party brought in to broker a trade by retaining cap-hit on another deal. Unfortunately, the team is already retaining cap-hit on Richard Panik's deal, so they only have two retention slots for this season and next. So one for Leddy, and a second for the highest bidder.

Slotting Every Spot in the Lineup

Here is where I believe every player on the Red Wings roster currently slots into the lineup.

Key: Green - strong fit, Yellow - average fit, Orange - weak fit, Red - no player who fits

Following on my last post, there are a number of holes that need to be filled, before the Red Wings push to be in contention, and those are shown in RED. When those holes are filled (and the ORANGE spots are eliminated), Jeff Blashill will go from being evaluated based on player development, to one who is evaluated based on team performance.

The most glaring holes here, are on the second line. While Lucas Raymond or Jakub Vrana could both fill in on the first line, neither is currently a true top line player (right now). Raymond could very well develop into one, but for now, he isn't there yet. Both of these guys are solid top-6 wingers. Another top-line winger will be needed to contend.

On the third line, we find two guys that are currently on the second line, Robby Fabbri and Pius Suter. They are performing capably, but are subpar when stacked up against contenders. Zadina is the wild-card here, as he seems to have offensive potential, but had yet to see results. Vlad Namestnikov is a capable third-liner with some ability to fill-in elsewhere, but his offensive ability is limited.

The fourth line is chock full of a hodge-podge of centers that don't really have an NHL identity. In my last entry, I discussed Michael Rasmussen's struggles to stick to a role, as well as Joe Veleno's inability to find one. The only guy who clearly has a clear future on this line is out injured, Mitchell Stephens. After a solid season last year, Adam Erne has disappeared. He is serviceable for an energy role.

On defense, we have another glaring hole on the top pair. Moritz Seider is a clear top-2 d-man, and plays it every night, but he needs help. Marc Staal and Danny DeKeyser have filled in there this season, but neither is a top-4 defender, with the latter probably not being an NHL caliber player anymore. Nick Leddy remains a capable puck-moving defenseman, but his ability to eat minutes isn't what it used to be. He remains a top-4 for his puck moving, but is a liability in his own zone.

Filip Hronek is also a capable puck-mover, but since he moved to the second pair (and matching up against opponents second line) his defensive numbers have failed to improve. His offensive has improved, if you consider his decrease in power-play time.

On the third pair, we have two solid players on the right side. Neither provide a whole lot of offensive upside, despite good instincts, but both can eat minutes. The left side, is another story. Marc Staal is clearly valued for his leadership, and physical presence, but has lost more than step since his prime. He is a capable third pair guy, but nothing more. Jordan Oesterle has filled in admirably this season when injuries have hit, but he has never played a full season, and isn't what most would consider a minutes-eater. He can step in when needed, but is a 6-7th d-man.

In the crease, Thomas Greiss has taken a substantial step in reverse this season. There was cause for optimism when he finished last season on a tear. However, age may be taking it's toll, and a stop-gap backup for Nedeljkovic may be needed. Ned has cemented himself as the team's starter, and has the look of a top-10 netminder in the NHL.